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Will Brexit end....?

Discussion in 'Personal' started by Mr_Ed, Nov 16, 2016.

  1. Mr_Ed

    Mr_Ed Established commenter

    I am concerned about FOM because I am concerned about Brexit and the fact it ain't happening, even though we voted for it in 2016.

    Even if Boris Johnson is able to win this game of chess he is engaged in and tells us on 1st November that Brexit has happened, it will not be true. Take back control (of our borders) they said, but whilst free movement of people continues it will be BRINO.

    You are right about the majority of the migrants not being from the EU & one demographic group in particular are not economically active so I don't believe that guff about high net migration is good, because they put in more than they take out, but that is another thing entirely, separate from Brexit.
     
    alex_teccy likes this.
  2. LondonCanary

    LondonCanary Star commenter

    I am also concerned about the decision to stop my freedom of movement. I would like to have it available to me indefinitely.
    (Obviously I am not the 'we' who voted for it.)
     
  3. Burndenpark

    Burndenpark Star commenter

    I still don't get why you want to shut people out of the UK and us out of the rest of the EU?

    I know you've said in the past that you are concerned about the availability of jobs- as I said there's some car washing ones coming free soon- are they what you want for you and your son?

    Care to elaborate?
     
  4. blue451

    blue451 Lead commenter

    As others see us. From https://ctxt.es/es/20190904/Politica/28076/Brexit-Reino-Unido-Boris-Johnson-Parlamento-UE-elecciones.htm

    What could go wrong?

    The tactics of the PM are the same as those of Theresa May. His main strategy is to threaten to plunge his country into chaos in order to damage the EU

    ...[spending the summer] writing the kind of letters to Juncker which make him look good at home but cause laughter elsewhere.

    Unlike Cameron or May, the current PM is charismatic and entertaining. He's also racist, dishonest and mendacious.

    The UK i becoming like Orban's Hungary or Edogan's Turkey. All to fulfill the 'Atlantist' dream of an elite which wants to country to become a paradise of total de-regulation and private welfare. The opposite of what democracy should be.
     
    Burndenpark likes this.
  5. Mr_Ed

    Mr_Ed Established commenter

    The job thing is an issue, I don't mind doing physical work and have done it in the past - my son is washing pots at a local pub as I write this. It is the depression of wages due to over-supply of cheap labour that is the problem. If people want to come here apply for a visa, qualify via a points system, similarly if someone like LondonCanary wants to work abroad do likewise. It is the whole free movement thing I object to because it is treating Europe as a United States with separate countries as if they are counties within the UK. I don't like it. The thing is loads more people want to come here compared to the number of people here who want to go elsewhere, because Britain is a great place to live. It also has a very generous welfare system.

    80% of muslim women are unemployed, like I said: Britain is a great place to live. It also has a very generous welfare system.
     
    alex_teccy likes this.
  6. Burndenpark

    Burndenpark Star commenter

    Are you sure that getting rid of the foreigners will fix this- or just result in fewer of those jobs being done or done by mecanisation? Think of how it will hit the care sector- we're looking at tax cuts and rate rises don't playout well- if staff pay rises, then numbers have to fall to compensate and more of those needing help- just get to sit in their own mess for longer- or relatives have to give up jobs to tend them. In retail- you are looking at even more depressed high streets and more automation in the fulfilment centres, likewise for taxies and couriers.
    I just don't see who benefits from this if we shed say 1m jobs and 3/4 of those are migrants you've still lost 1m jobs and 1/4m or them were British workers.

    Am I missing something here?

    No it's treating them as separate countries as if they are counties within the EU. And I thought it had been established that it was OUR decision made by OUR government to pay benefits the way we do.
    As for Britain being a great place to live- have you ever been abroad? I don't mean a week in Benedorm- large parts of the EU are really very nice.

    Which EU countries are most of these coming from?:confused:
     
    chelsea2 likes this.
  7. burajda

    burajda Star commenter

    Some of those things are draws to come to the UK, but there are other very significant factors.

    Britain has decided to have a highly flexible employment market, so the jobs favour people who want that flexible type of work and relatively low wages and there are many of those jobs in many sectors. Unlike other highly developed EU economies like Germany or France where such work is far less common. You may not like them, but flexible employment practices were British decisions not EU ones. Our Parliament and our Businesses introduced them. They will still be draw for workers in the future as unemployment remains low, unless we have high unemployment with more 'native' demand for such jobs.

    The UK of course, decided not to join the euro and the pound drifted high against the Euro, as high as 1.45 at one point, so the UK offered quite high 'low paid' wages compared to the eurozone and their East European home countries.

    Most people who come have learnt English at school, not French or Dutch or German, so our cultural success of making English the lingua franca of Europe is another draw. Working in the UK enables one to improve one's English so low paid jobs here are stepping stones to achieving higher paid jobs often back home where English is the second language in so many sectors.

    EU migration is more of a revolving door and I don't think many of the younger people who come in and out are really coming here for our welfare benefits, unless you can show me otherwise. Many are here as students.

    Of course due to the falling pound and the Brexit vote so EU migration has declined, particularly from the wealthier EU states that supply most of the workers with higher skills. But what has kept on rising is the number of migrants from outside the EU. That number has always been under our control. It shows no sign of reducing.
     
  8. chelsea2

    chelsea2 Star commenter

    deleted
     
  9. chelsea2

    chelsea2 Star commenter

    Perhaps you should read this article, which looks at some of the claims you are making:

    https://www.ft.com/content/797f7b42-bb44-11e8-94b2-17176fbf93f5

    The effects of EU migration on Britain in 5 charts
    Did migrants really force down wages and are they a drain on the UK exchequer?
    European migration has been good for Britain, raising economic performance and improving the public finances, the Migration Advisory Committee revealed on Tuesday following the most extensive research on its effects in a generation. The MAC report showed that not every aspect of migration has been beneficial and gains will not have been equally felt across the British-born population. But the overall impact, particularly from EU nations, has been far more positive than the Leave campaign, politicians and parts of the media generally project.
     
  10. Mr_Ed

    Mr_Ed Established commenter

    Look, I have said this before but will say it again - prior to June 2016 I was concerned about the high net migration figures into the UK since Tony Bliar's time. I was shocked in one of the TV debates when David Dimbleby really went after David Cameron on exactly the same point you are making to me: that even though EU migration under FOM is high, the non-EU migration over which we are supposed to have control is higher!!! Cameron was unable to explain it - but the exchange spured me on to vote Brexit for this reason: I felt the politicians were using the FOM/EU migration thing to cover up their inability to get anywhere near the tens of thousands they kept promising, so I thought - let's Brexit, let's get total control of our borders and then there will be no excuse. It would expose these MPs as incompetent numpties who just talk about 'control over immigration' (it was on Ed Milliband's monolith remember) when in fact they can't control it, or don't really even want to try.

    I feel pretty much vindicated in this last point because the reason I re-energised this thread was to discuss the fact that FOM will not be ending on 31/10/19 and so even if Boris Johnson et al say in November that "we have done a Brexit", it will be a lie.

    In fact I can't understand why since this story appeared (Sunday Times 1/9/19) I have heard no more about it: why have none of the 'Remain' people not been shouting about this from the rooftops? If they can get across the message that deal or no-deal, Halloween will not be Brexit day they might be able to get some of the Johnson supporters who still believe in him, to realise what a charlatan he is.
     
    alex_teccy likes this.
  11. JL48

    JL48 Star commenter

    I don't disagree with your first statement regarding unskilled labour and have some sympathy with the rest of what you say here.
    Whilst Britain is a great place to live, I think that you overestimate quite how many people want to come here compared to other similar countries. Also, our welfare system is far from generous. Healthcare, unemployment and state pensions are far far far better / more generous in France, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands and a range of other countries than ours is.
     
  12. Mr_Ed

    Mr_Ed Established commenter

    Yes - and so it goes on..... I have just heard on the radio this morning that foreign students who graduate from British Universities will now be able to stay and work here for 2 years - up from 4 months.... who has made this decision? Why, when so many people want the population to become more stable are things like this continuing to happen - I noticed that as well as not being able to end FOM when(if) Brexit happens, the government has dropped its target of reducing net migration to less than tens of thousands, which in the past they decreed was 'sustainable'. Is it cos they can't? Or is it because they don't want to? Either way it just adds more and more supporters for the Brexit party.

    Yes, I have visited France and Italy - very nice food and scenery, but the people talk funny, not like what I does....
     
    alex_teccy likes this.
  13. chelsea2

    chelsea2 Star commenter

    Did you read this article?
    Or do you prefer not to know the facts?
    https://www.ft.com/content/797f7b42-bb44-11e8-94b2-17176fbf93f5
     
  14. Burndenpark

    Burndenpark Star commenter

    Boris & Angela I guess, and from the sound of things, either you heard a different report or you didn't listen well enough. Loathsom went on to say, on R4, that currently there are 450k (not sure if that was total or per year) foreighn studnets coming here but she'd like to see that go up to 600K.

    It wasn't sustainable- it was a magic number plucked out of the air to please/ pacify the xenophobes.
    What makes you think there's a set maximum number for the size of the UK population? Cos the area you live in is crowded? That probably means you have chosen to live in an urban or suburban area- that is your choice- there's still loads of countryside out there- just that it's less convenient and more expensive. If you really want a big garden set up a party tha will nationalise the golf courses- isn't there supposed to be more than enough land given over to these than is needed for housing?

    Only short term- once the older ones find they can't get bottom wipers and the younger ones find their parents need their bottoms wiping regularly they will start to demand migrants be brought in.

    Not just those two, and you can learn another language you know.

    paywall :(

    Sorry for any spelling mistakes/ typoes- TES's idiot talking heads are still messing up my browser
     
  15. chelsea2

    chelsea2 Star commenter

    OK - there's this:

    CEP BREXIT ANALYSIS NO. 5
    Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK

     EU immigrants are more educated, younger, more likely to be in work and less likely to claim benefits than the UK-born. About 44% have some form of higher education compared with only 23% of the UK-born. About a third of EU immigrants live in London, compared with only 11% of the UK-born.

     Many people are concerned that immigration reduces the pay and job chances of the UKborn due to more competition for jobs. But immigrants consume goods and services and this increased demand helps to create more employment opportunities. Immigrants also might have skills that complement UK-born workers. So we need empirical evidence to settle the issue of whether the economic impact of immigration is negative or positive for the UK-born.

     New evidence in this Report shows that the areas of the UK with large increases in EU immigration did not suffer greater falls in the jobs and pay of UK-born workers. The big falls in wages after 2008 are due to the global financial crisis and a weak economic recovery, not to immigration.

     There is also little effect of EU immigration on inequality through reducing the pay and jobs of less skilled UK workers. Changes in wages and joblessness for less educated UKborn workers show little correlation with changes in EU immigration.

     EU immigrants pay more in taxes than they take out in welfare and the use of public services. They therefore help reduce the budget deficit. Immigrants do not have a negative effect on local services such as crime, education, health, or social housing


    To read the whole report: https://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

    ETA: I can access the info from my original post here:
    https://www.ft.com/content/797f7b42-bb44-11e8-94b2-17176fbf93f5
     
    blue451 likes this.
  16. Mr_Ed

    Mr_Ed Established commenter

    Gove: I think the people in this country have had enough of experts, with organizations from acronyms, saying—
    Interviewer: They've had enough of experts? The people have had enough of experts? What do you mean by that?
    Gove: People from organizations with acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong.
    Inteviewer: The people of this country have had enough of experts?
    Gove: Because these people are the same ones who got consistently wrong what was happening.
    Interviewer: This is proper Trump politics this, isn't it?
    Gove: No it's actually a faith in the—
    Inteviewer: It's Oxbridge Trump.
    Gove: It's a faith, Faisal, in the British people to make the right decision.
     
    alex_teccy likes this.
  17. chelsea2

    chelsea2 Star commenter

    ???? :confused::confused:
    Which does not address the information in the graphs or article I posted.
    Such as:
     
    sodalime likes this.
  18. alex_teccy

    alex_teccy Lead commenter

    Yes the ones who register not NI numbers.
    Do you think all the EU migrants lining up for work in Southgate have NI numbers? or the cleaners etc?
     
  19. chelsea2

    chelsea2 Star commenter

    You have evidence they don't?
     
  20. Mr_Ed

    Mr_Ed Established commenter

    Oh, it must be the reporter at fault, Priti Patel on the Marr show yesterday confirmed that FOM will end on 31.10.19, I think.
     

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