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Why is the persumption that a 2nd refurendum will stop Brexit?

Discussion in 'Personal' started by oldsomeman, Apr 21, 2019.

  1. oldsomeman

    oldsomeman Star commenter

    https://www.theguardian.com/politic...eferendum-only-way-to-beat-farage-says-watson
    It seems panic has set in over Farages rise in popularity. The wato stop it is a 2nd referendum its claimed.But why if most folk are voting Anti brexit at the governments?parliments failure to deliver brexit.
    Would folk vote for Ferage any less? or would they even believe that an 'advisoryy referendum would be of any use as the first one is not in their point of view?
     
  2. ilovesooty

    ilovesooty Star commenter

    Surely it depends on the wording of any advisory referendum?
     
  3. FrankWolley

    FrankWolley Star commenter

    It's a third referendum....
     
  4. oldsomeman

    oldsomeman Star commenter

    so its not avisory. but a vote as no refferendum can be enacted unless voted upon to ratify it?
    Why the presumprionit can work.Is aeveryone sufficiently confident it will be good?
     
  5. oldsomeman

    oldsomeman Star commenter

    Fair comment,which one you you deem the first?
    However in line with the comment I made.how do such folks who want a 2nd/3rd one believe it will stop Farage?
     
  6. FrankWolley

    FrankWolley Star commenter

    1975 = 1st
    2016 = 2nd
    2019? = 3rd
     
  7. MAGAorMIGA

    MAGAorMIGA Lead commenter

    The current 58-42% margin of Remain-Leave in the polls would make it a reasonable presumption.
     
  8. colpee

    colpee Star commenter

    Ah but we is fickle folks is we. Tell them pollsters one thing and vote the other way; thing is, they always falls for it. :D
     
  9. MAGAorMIGA

    MAGAorMIGA Lead commenter

    Is that what you did?
     
  10. dunnocks

    dunnocks Star commenter

    Over Christmans I spent some time with policy advisors for the labour and the conservative parties, who had been working together (with others) to settle on the wording of the next referendum. it's ready to roll. They told me that it would be used, if necessary, to stave off no deal.

    They were fairly confident that no-deal wouldn't happen, that everyone knew really it would be national suicide. One of them reelled off a list of drugs we woudn't be able to get hold of in the immediate aftermath, which I am not repeating here, although it did amount to the equivalent of 12 000 lives in the first instance...

    They did tell me there would be no food shortages, although less choice of food. The governemnt had taken steps to ensure they would have control over the carrot, turnip and potato crops.

    Their take on a new referendum was that remain would almost certainly win. Discounting leave supporters who had changed their mind, and were claiming they had voted remain originally, allowing for leave supporters who would not admit that they would vote leave, there was a total confidence in a minimum 10% swing from leave to remain, even in the most heavily leave areas of the country.
     
  11. nervousned

    nervousned Senior commenter

    I don't presume but considering the current chaos, I think it would be a good idea to make sure that leaving still has majority support.
     
    nizebaby and bombaysapphire like this.
  12. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    Polls six months before the 2016 referendum were showing Remain at 6% ahead of Leave (e.g. ICM on 20th December 2015).
     
  13. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    Including what the options are. The indicative votes showed that there was no realistic support in parliament for a leave/remain choice, as in 2016. Such a decision was heavily defeated.

    However, the vote on a referendum to confirm whatever parliament decided only narrowly lost. It was not suggested that such a referendum would give the option to cancel Brexit. It would simply be a vote to either confirm or deny parliament's choice, leaving parliament to choose something else if the public didn't like it.
     
  14. oldsomeman

    oldsomeman Star commenter

    I am trying to find why a headline in a paper assumes Labour pushing for a 2nd referendum might defeat Farage.
    I hear Dunnock commenting working parties, but how does this allay with the surge for a Brexit leaving party which seems to be surging ahead. Or will folk suddenly change their mind on the day of a referendum, if it ever happens?
    Are the political groups fearing the end of the system as we have it...not the chance of a referendum. We have a remainder in charge of the Tories and a leaver in charge of Labour.
    Yet even change UK, a remainder group is trying hard to encourage folk to join its point of view so it can either pressurise or become a party of influence in our local and European polling...not the referendum.
     
  15. Aquamarina1234

    Aquamarina1234 Lead commenter

    Only two ways it could go. Toss a coin..
     
  16. nervousned

    nervousned Senior commenter

    I assume you are talking about Watson's comments. I feel this is more about putting pressure on Corbyn than any real belief that any such push for a second referendum would defeat Farage.

    At best Watson hopes to take support from Remain parties in order to beat Farage but this assumes he doesn't lose Leave votes to Farage as a result.
     
  17. sparkleghirl

    sparkleghirl Star commenter

    I'm not sure there really is that presumption. There seems to be a fear, though, and despite the frequent assertion that 'it's (Brexit is) what the people want', they seem reluctant to put that to the test.

    Personally I think a 2nd ref would be a great idea. Without one, we'll always be able to see we were cheated, lied to, misinformed, whatever - and I mean all of us - when/if it all goes wrong Leavers will be as quick as Remainers to look for someone to blame.

    But if now, despite what we now know, despite the debunking of the anti-EU myths, despite the very real consequences we've been warned of, if even now the people vote to Leave then they deserve everything that's coming to them.
     
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2019
  18. Oscillatingass

    Oscillatingass Star commenter

    Brexit has already been stopped there is no need to bother with another referendum.
     
  19. LondonCanary

    LondonCanary Established commenter

    Don't include me.
    Is that some sort of threat of violence?
     
    agathamorse likes this.
  20. Spoofer4114

    Spoofer4114 New commenter

    Nice story lady.
     

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