I'm sorry to disabuse you of this notion, dumpty, but Cameron isn't threatened by UKIP. He's threatened, or rather the men in grey suits are, by the divisions in the Tory Party over where they stand on Europe. You delude yourself.This isn't the way politics works. As I said earlier, Farage has been shown to be a non-entity since he couldn't convince the public to elect him. He's been played like a puppet by those in the other parties who encouraged the media to let his voice be heard in order to achieve their own aims. The issue isn't about whether or not we stay in Europe, it's about who gets control at home. Cameron is trying to negotiate a deal that will allow him as the representative of his faction to tell us it's best to remain in the EU. If he succeeds and the referendum goes his way, his faction will win the Tory leadership battle. If the refendum goes the other way, his party opponents win the leadership battle. As I understand it and am happy to be corrected, a referendum outcome doesn't legally bind a government to obey the wishes of the people in the same way a general election does. It merely acts as a litmus test that helps to decide the way forward. It would seem likely to me that if there was a serious prospect of the UK leaving the EU on the wishes of the people, the pros and cons of the matter would be publicly debated by experts for a long time. Years maybe, because it's a serious matter with lots of implications. The suggestion is that the referendum could take place as early as June. Maybe it will, but all this tell us is that the Cameron faction knows it has won the leadership contest. The referendum might take place a year after, or it might never take place at all. After all it was a pledge that Cameron made to swat an irritating fly and when he's gone, his successor isn't bound by the pledges he made. Then there's the question of the matter being bogged down with unexpected and debilitating legal consequences if Britain leaves before 2021, by which time we'll have a new government, offering hope and aspiration for the future and all talk of a referendum will be forgotten, along with the obituaries of Nigel Farage's death through liver failure. A week is a long time in politics. You'd be foolish to bet on the outcome, just as you'd have been foolish to bet that Nigel Farage would ever get elected or that when they were really on a roll, UKIP wouldn't end up losing half of the pathetic number of MPs it had nicked from the Tories.