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Were the recent Elections disastrous for Corbyn?

Discussion in 'Personal' started by bonkers 704, May 9, 2016.

  1. bonkers 704

    bonkers 704 Lead commenter

    The more people are crunching the numbers, the better they look (except Scotland, and let's face it, those results are nothing to do with Corbyn). Jon Harvey has looked at the PCC results, and I'm copying and pasting the most interesting bits of his analysis (whole thing here: http://ajustfuture.blogspot.co.uk/2016/05/was-that-almost-general-election.html).

    In 2012, the Labour share of all the PCC (including London Mayor) votes was 33.92%. The Conservative share was 33.14%. Note the Conservative share was only slightly less that the Labour one. Perhaps in hindsight this was a portent to the general election result in 2015?

    What about now? The Conservative share is down to 30.59%, a drop of over 2.5%. The Labour share on the other hand is up to 36.64%, a gain of over 2.5%. The gap between the two is now running at over 6%.

    It is also worth noting that in the 41 PCC elections contested, 25 Labour and 25 Conservative candidates increased their share of the vote between 2012 and 2016.

    There are now 20 Conservative PCCs, 2 Plaid Cymru, 3 Independent and 17 Labour (including Greater Manchester). Interestingly the number of votes cast last week overall for Labour and Conservative were 1,148,716 and 909,715 respectively. So nearly a quarter of a million more votes for Labour but four fewer PCCs.

    Those are very interesting results, particularly the vote share, and you have to say more than two million real votes is far preferable to any number of polls with a sample of a thousand or so. Of course someone will come back and point out that these are votes for individuals standing under the party label, who are most unlikely to be well known to the public. This in my view makes them even more interesting, because the effect of personalities is taken out of the equation.

    Finally, Labour 36.6% and the Tories 30.6% is almost exactly the inverse proportions of the voting proportions they received last May. Evidence Corbyn is turning things round?
  2. Flere-Imsaho

    Flere-Imsaho Star commenter

    Everything is Corbyn's fault. Is the sun out today? Corbyn failed to stop lethal heatwave coming to Britain.
    Burndenpark and bonkers 704 like this.
  3. grumpydogwoman

    grumpydogwoman Star commenter

    Well, if it were curtains for Jeremy I'd expect it to be all over the news. It isn't. I'm sure Radio 4 would be only too keen to host a stab-fest but it's all gone quiet on the Blame-Jeremy front.

    So everyone is going to have to work a lot harder at holding Jeremy to account!
    bonkers 704 likes this.
  4. Flere-Imsaho

    Flere-Imsaho Star commenter

    Corbyn fails to make Labour truly accountable - should he resign?
  5. lanokia

    lanokia Star commenter

    I burned my mouth eating out in a French restaurant on Saturday...

    If Corbyn had put more effort into the EU ref arguments then maybe that wouldn't have happened!
    bonkers 704 likes this.
  6. EllisCarver

    EllisCarver Established commenter

    He did less badly than expected but still lost seats. He failed to appeal to conservative voters to vote labour like Blair did.
    Corbyn himself remains ill equipped to be leader. It will need his supporters to realise he will never be PM to effect change.
    Burndenpark likes this.
  7. vannie

    vannie Star commenter

    I bought new shoes and they rubbed something chronic when I wore them to the match yesterday. Curse you Corbyn!
  8. EllisCarver

    EllisCarver Established commenter

    I see there is a petion signed by 40,000 people to sack Laura Kuenssberg for not saying what some people wanted to hear about Jezza plus attendant sexist abuse. A new, kinder politics.
  9. Didactylos4

    Didactylos4 Star commenter

    There are people who really should get out more
  10. Geoff Thomas

    Geoff Thomas Star commenter

    Thank you Cons Central Office for your input.

    Shall we discuss instead, the total mess at the top of your party?
  11. lanokia

    lanokia Star commenter

    Strikes me it wasn't an unalloyed success for anyone...
  12. Geoff Thomas

    Geoff Thomas Star commenter

    lexus300 likes this.
  13. cariadwch

    cariadwch Established commenter

  14. vannie

    vannie Star commenter

    Cameron looks more sinister than usual in the picture. A hint of Mephistopheles.
  15. cariadwch

    cariadwch Established commenter

    Copied from some random place elsewhere but interesting:

    "The first local elections for incumbent governments are usually pretty good and the opposition makes no or little progress.

    Also the 2012 locals WERE midterm and so Labour did pretty well. Labour are bucking this trend but not the way the media is reporting it. See below.

    1980 – after winning the 1979 election the Tories gained 40% of the vote only 2% behind Labour.
    1984 – after winning the 1983 election the Tories won the local elections
    1988 – after winning the 1987 election the Tories won the local elections.
    1992 – after winning the GE the Tories won the local elections with 46% of the vote.
    1998 – after winning the 1997 election Labour won the local elections.
    2002 – After winning the 2001 GE Labour polled a mere 1% behind the Tories in share of national vote.
    2006 – After winning the 2005 GE the government does indeed take a pasting which has been put down to the anger over the Iraq War.
    2011 – After winning the largest share of the vote in the 2010 GE and set up the Tory led coalition support for the Tories drops only 1.1% from the GE.
    2016 – After winning the 2015 GE the Tories votes drops 6.9% from GE support but this is not widely reported.

    As you can see in this stage of the electoral cycle, the incumbent government has tended to do well in the following local elections and so the idea that the opposition should be making progress or grabbing hundreds of seats does not bear scrutiny and is completely wrong.

    In fact this is the worse Tory performance in the local elections since 1996 when John Major only got 29% which was an improvement from 1995 when they only got 25% of the vote. But again this is not being reported."
    Geoff Thomas and vannie like this.
  16. vannie

    vannie Star commenter

  17. vannie

    vannie Star commenter

    I don't know why my comment appeared in the middle of your quoted post. Apologies. Press reports on Labour and Corbyn in particular are a bit like OFSTED reports. Written in the carpark before the actual event.
    lexus300 likes this.
  18. bonkers 704

    bonkers 704 Lead commenter

    Two lots of number-crunching reveals two separate but interesting sets of facts:
    1. In the voting in local council elections, extrapolated to parliamentary constituencies, Labour would have gained 45 seats (to 277), while the Tories would have lost 55 (to 275) so Labour as the largest party would have had the chance to form a Coalition, probably with the SNP.
    2. As stated above, in the PCC elections, held in different parts of the country, Labour beat the Tories by 250,000 votes and 6% of the popular vote. Taken together, many millions of votes were cast in these Elections. so they are a far more reliable indicator as to the state of the parties than opinion polls. Certainly the Tory vote is busy collapsing - at least 7% down from the GE last May.
  19. Didactylos4

    Didactylos4 Star commenter

    Pretty standard drop in popularity I would have thought.

    I don't think I will be toasting their demise just yet
  20. CedricDaniels

    CedricDaniels Established commenter

    In those specific geographies.

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