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US election: this is what will happen

Discussion in 'Personal' started by artboyusa, Jan 9, 2016.

  1. artboyusa

    artboyusa Lead commenter

    Okay, I have a long history of being wrong about US elections (what happened to that Mondale '84 landslide I predicted?) but I think I'm right this time. According to me, this is what will happen....

    Hillary Clinton will NOT be the Democrat nominee. That's because (1) she is concealing a serious health issue and eventually it will leak out, probably from her ear (2) she is still being investigated by the FBI and if an indictment comes down between now and November, she's toast and (3) she is polling really badly against Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire (50% Bernie to 37% Hillary). She will win Iowa, that's a given, but if she loses NH then all of a sudden she stops being inevitable, just like in 2008. And Hillary has serious drawbacks as a candidate. These are mainly to do with (a) being Hillary Clinton and (b) behaving like Hillary Clinton. And in the general election, she'd be schlonged by Trump. That's why her team keep saying they 'can't wait' to take him on. Oh yes, they can.

    Anyway, each of these factors, or a combination, mean that in a couple of months when Hillary gets sick, gets charged or loses big, the people who pay for the Democrats will look at the losing hand she now represents and make The Call.

    To whom? Not to Bernie Sanders. Even in Obama's America a doddering Socialist who reminds you of The Crypt Keeper isn't electable. He'll be bought off. The call goes to Joe Biden.

    Biden said he wouldn't run and he's missed the registration deadline for a lot of states. So what? When the call comes Joe will do it. For country, for party, for Joe. He's almost as awful as Hillary but it won't matter. Obama will back him, so will the party, the bought and paid for media will carry his water and he'll give Trump a much harder time, as they're both the same kind of big talking, populist, showboater - only Trump has actual accomplishments but that won't matter. You'll see. Hillary's almost over. It'll be Biden.
     
  2. racroesus

    racroesus Star commenter

    You reckon Trump will lead the GOP?
     
  3. monicabilongame

    monicabilongame Star commenter

    Gaad Help Murica
     
    sabrinakat likes this.
  4. artboyusa

    artboyusa Lead commenter

    Yep. He's so effective that all his competitors are wearing neon signs around their necks saying LOSER that are visible to everyone except the people wearing them. Its too close to call in Iowa between Cruz and Trump because of the evangelical vote but Trump will win big in New Hampshire and South Carolina and then he's unstoppable. I had hopes of Carly Fiorina but she's never been able to gain traction. Don't know why.

    Well yes, I do: Trump. In people's minds, he's already president. This thread is about Hillary and people want to talk about Trump. Why? Because for most people she's almost irrelevant and so is the election. They've already elected Trump, although I'm the only one around here voting.
     
  5. lexus300

    lexus300 Star commenter

    All of a sudden, things are getting interesting. President Trump. Now that is a thought.:D
     
    thistledoo likes this.
  6. Morninglover

    Morninglover Lead commenter

    President Trump arrested for inciting racial hatred when he visits GB. Could make for an interesting time....
     
    thistledoo likes this.
  7. lanokia

    lanokia Star commenter

    Trump has gone too far to the extreme right to win now... all any semi-decent candidate needs to do against him is point out his policies on Muslims and Mexicans and boom, Liberal USA and Hispanic USA walk away. Then highlight his bankruptcies and his 'family' values and you've sunk him.
     
    sabrinakat likes this.
  8. lanokia

    lanokia Star commenter

    Yeah keep telling yourself that...

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us12222015_Uhkm63g.pdf

    Quinnipiac University Poll/December 22, 2015 – page 2 American voters back Clinton over Trump 47 – 40 percent. In other matchups:  Clinton gets 44 percent to Rubio’s 43 percent;  Clinton and Cruz are tied 44 – 44 percent. Sanders tops Trump 51 – 38 percent. In other matchups:  Rubio gets 45 percent to Sanders’ 42 percent;  Cruz gets 44 percent to Sanders’ 43 percent. Clinton has a negative 43 – 51 percent favorability rating. Other favorability ratings are:  Negative 33 – 59 percent for Trump;  40 – 31 percent for Sanders;  37 – 28 percent for Rubio;  35 – 33 percent for Cruz. Clinton has the right kind of experience to be president, American voters say 63 – 35
     
  9. peakster

    peakster Star commenter

    What about Ted Cruz then ? - a much better alternative to Trump.
     
  10. artboyusa

    artboyusa Lead commenter

    I guess that's why he's doing so badly, huh? Because everyone hates his policies. Politics aren't about policies. Jeb Bush has lots of policies and he's spent $60 million telling people about them. He's at 3%. Politics is about emotion.

    Trump has benefitted from the same general anger, disappointment and disgust with the political status quo that Bernie has at the opposite end. Those same feelings have lifted Corbyn and Farage in this country. Whoever promises the most dramatic change will win this election -and that won't be Hillary.

    Like I said; I let you guys in on a secret about Hillary and everyone talks about Trump. You've already elected him. I'm off to the bookies later to see if I can get a bet on Biden as the Dem nominee. Never placed a bet in my life but I'm pretty sure about this one. I'll let you know what happens.
     
  11. artboyusa

    artboyusa Lead commenter

    Cruz is super smart. He's a Constitutional scholar. He's articulate and he's tough.He's a real conservative, which Trump isn't. I personally agree with most of his positions. But I don't know; there's something not right with him that I can't identify except that its there. Can't see him winning nationally. Just can't see it.
     
  12. lanokia

    lanokia Star commenter

    It's a republican primary... he's playing well with Republican voters...

    It isn't yet a national election. You know this art. That's a non-point.

    Trump gets beaten by Cruz in Iowa and the shine comes off him... no more 'winner' guff.
     
  13. Flere-Imsaho

    Flere-Imsaho Star commenter

    Is the secret about Hillary these health concerns? They've been plastered all over the internet for a couple of days.

    Besides now that we know Americans will vote for a President who conceals serious health issues like MS, I don't see...oh no, wait...that wasn't real, was it? It's hard to remember which is truth and which is fiction when Trump is being looked at as a serious candidate.
     
    omannay, grumpydogwoman and lanokia like this.
  14. lanokia

    lanokia Star commenter

    His own party turned on him recently with the 'Is he Canadian?' line... very amusing... dragging back up Obama's birth certificate arguments with Cruz instead of Obama in the line.
     
  15. lanokia

    lanokia Star commenter

    I clicked like just for the 'West Wing' reference!

    They did vote for FDR though... so it is possible.
     
    sabrinakat likes this.
  16. artboyusa

    artboyusa Lead commenter

    FDR had polio, not MS. And the media of the day colluded with him to keep it on the down low. Most people thought he could walk, when he couldn't. Well, not without a lot of difficulty. And I said it would be close in Iowa but Trump big wins in NH and SC. Hillary win in Iowa but lose in NH. But she'll be out anyway before the convention.
     
  17. lanokia

    lanokia Star commenter

    The issue was health concerns... not the specific nature of illness.
     
  18. Scintillant

    Scintillant Star commenter

  19. artboyusa

    artboyusa Lead commenter

    Oh, was that what the West Wing comment was about? I think I only watched it a couple of times. Hope Martin Sheen is okay. Anyway, people anywhere won't vote for someone they know has major health problems, which is probably a smart call. If people knew how sick JFK really was, he'd never have been elected to anything.
     
  20. Flere-Imsaho

    Flere-Imsaho Star commenter

    Nobody looked at Reagan and saw his health problems?
     

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