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Thoughts on the GBP v EURO after Dec12th

Discussion in 'Teaching abroad' started by spanboy, Dec 6, 2019.

  1. spanboy

    spanboy Occasional commenter

    Any thoughts, anyone? I know it's a crystal-ball thing but... ? Good time to exchange a fair amount of Euros to GBP before election, or after? Then there's 31st Jan too...IF it happens??

    Thanks
     
  2. Helen-Back

    Helen-Back Occasional commenter

    That's a crystal ball question. Nobody has the answer. Best to change it regularly. I'm in Asia, I send money home regularly and don't consider the rate because I look at dollar (pound?) cost averaging over time.
     
    TeacherMan2019 and towncryer like this.
  3. towncryer

    towncryer Lead commenter

    Does it really make that much difference? I would have thought that unless you're exchanging vast amounts of money then the gain or loss wont be that significant.
     
  4. kpjf

    kpjf Occasional commenter

    Well let's look at the facts. Google tells me that on 9 August, 1 euro was 0.94 GBP, now it's 0.84. I wish I had changed my euros into pounds then as I have some I'm doing nothing with! Now with the amount I wanted to change I will lose hundreds.

    I think so! I mean even if you're only changing 1,000 euros:

    1000 euros is now 840 pounds whereas in August it was 940 pounds. 100 quid makes a difference. Of course banks won't give you the literal exchange rate but you get the idea. So, if it's pounds to euros I definitely think it's a good time. Of course nobody has a crystal ball but you can look on several websites showing the eur/gbp rate in the last 5 years and you can make your decision. Also, one thing to note is that if there are more Brexit complications in getting a deal it might make it worse gbp/eur.
     
  5. the hippo

    the hippo Lead commenter Community helper

    Hmm. Well, one man's "vast amounts" might be another's small change.

    At the moment I have quite a tidy sum in the UK and I am hoping to move it into euros, if and when the GBP finally picks up a bit.
     
  6. kpjf

    kpjf Occasional commenter

    Could be (totally) wrong but I sincerely doubt in the next year it's going to be that much better than it is now (for GBP to EUR). Looking on Google the last time it was better than it is now was way back in 2016.
     
  7. dumbbells66

    dumbbells66 Lead commenter

    if Brexshit actually happens the pound will be a lot worse than it is now.... the big question is will it ever actually happen.
     
    ed717 and TeacherMan2019 like this.
  8. w1185299

    w1185299 New commenter

    The only thing certain is more uncertainty. Until a trade deal is agreed, which could be 2/3 years. Markets hate uncertainty. I believe the pound will be weak for at least that amount of time.
     
  9. spanboy

    spanboy Occasional commenter

    looking in the region of 140k euros, so quite significant
     
  10. T0nyGT

    T0nyGT Lead commenter

    There's no way on earth I'd be transferring that much of a stable currency in to pounds any time soon.
     
    ToK-tastic likes this.
  11. rouxx

    rouxx Lead commenter

    Drat...was hoping for an answer to this crystal ball question. Am sitting on a fair sum in USD and not decided what I should do with them...change them or just spend slowly or simply leave where they are.
     
  12. snitzelvonkrumm

    snitzelvonkrumm Occasional commenter

    Can we assume the GBP is as low as it will go? Is the only alternative up? Is it only a matter of when?
     
  13. dumbbells66

    dumbbells66 Lead commenter

    Im sorry the answer in my opinion is no. Brexshit hasnt actually happened yet and look at the mess the UK is in. Its going to get a lot lot worse in my opinion.
     
  14. T0nyGT

    T0nyGT Lead commenter

    That would be one hell of a gamble. Even if it was only a temporary market shock, surely any further move towards Brexit would drive the pound lower
     
  15. w1185299

    w1185299 New commenter

    Agree
     
  16. Helen-Back

    Helen-Back Occasional commenter

    Nobody can tell you that because nobody knows.
     
  17. towncryer

    towncryer Lead commenter

    Well I suppose it might give you a bit more...but still...140k isnt a vast amount is it?
    Its peanuts as far as money markets are concerned..then there's the cost to exchange etc.
    If you don't desperatey need it for anything you can gamble on the exchange rate I suppose.

    And of course...if the pound is going to plunge significantly after Brexit..its not going to be much use to you in pounds as your spending power will be reduced.

    Its always swing and roundabouts with money exchange...the banks are the only ones who win.
     
  18. february31st

    february31st Established commenter

    I would have converted into GBP 3 years ago and today converted back today into Euro and made myself 25000 Euro, 20/20 hindsight.

    I have a similar problem but with RMB, you got to hit the top of the wave when converting currency. The last time I did this it paid for for my new kitchen in my apartment, so the sums can be significant.
     
  19. rideemcowboy

    rideemcowboy Occasional commenter

    My modest understanding is that currency markets like stability. I heard someone important say that once with conviction.
    Surely any post Brexit senario is going to be more stable than the current mess?
     
  20. amysdad

    amysdad Established commenter

    Currency markets do tend to like stability, yes. The reason the £ was all over the place in the summer was because there was no stability in the government with the various Brexit votes - if, as the polls suggest, Johnson gets an overall majority then the £ will stabilize a bit in the short term because of that. If it's another minority government, then expect a sell off starting on the Friday afternoon and going on into the Monday until the Government stabilizes it.
     

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