1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.
  2. Hi Guest, welcome to the TES Community!

    Connect with like-minded education professionals and have your say on the issues that matter to you.

    Don't forget to look at the how to guide.

    Dismiss Notice

The value of R

Discussion in 'Personal' started by S1a3t5u7r9n, May 28, 2020.

  1. MrMedia

    MrMedia Star commenter

    Presumably as it goes through a community so it finds the local Typhoid Marys and they push the R up. Once all the Typhoid Marys are mopped up, the infection rate then resettles back to normal. Typhoid Mary refused to follow prescribed practice and thus spread typhoid due to her poor hygiene. So part of 'the peak' must be those super spreaders in high risk face to face jobs doing their bit like Cummings to spread the disease around. Upon reflection, Johnson fits this profile (I visited a hospital with COVID patients and shook hands with everybody).
     
  2. alex_teccy

    alex_teccy Star commenter

    Why makes you think Dominic Cummings is a super-spreader?o_O
     
    nomad likes this.
  3. S1a3t5u7r9n

    S1a3t5u7r9n Established commenter

    On the Gov.uk website the current Range for R is 0.7 to 0.9
    However when they quote regional values the upper limit on most reas is 1 or 1.1
    This is mathematically impossible
    Can anybody shed any light on this
     
  4. racroesus

    racroesus Star commenter

    The rest of you should follow NI's lead.
     
  5. MrMedia

    MrMedia Star commenter

    I don’t know Alec, I think the key bit for me was when his wife said, I think I’ve got coronavirus and his next move was to go back to work and say goodbye to everyone before he skipped off to Durham where his wife and the boy had to go to hospital and spread it there. Just not quite getting the stay home bit on message I suppose.
     
  6. S1a3t5u7r9n

    S1a3t5u7r9n Established commenter

    Maybe I have missed it but have we had an update on The R value lately.
    I remember when it was deemed to be a very important figure
     
  7. alex_teccy

    alex_teccy Star commenter

    Did he say goodbye to everybody? Like literally?
     
  8. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    In yesterday's government briefing it was said to still be between 0.7 and 0.9. This is a concensus figure agreed by SAGE after consideraing a number of differing calculations.

    Less so, I gather, as the infection rate declines because R can be over-influenced by relatively small, local outbreaks. Hence the R in Germany currently being 2.88 because of a number of localised outbreaks. The infection rate becomes more important than R as the number of current infections falls.

    According to the latest "nowcast" from the MRC Biostatistics Unit (who tend to be very conservative in their estimates), the mean value for R in England is below 0.9 in all areas except the South West (where it is 0.94), and is down to 0.77 in the South East.

    https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/
     
    Last edited: Jun 23, 2020
  9. S1a3t5u7r9n

    S1a3t5u7r9n Established commenter

    Goodbye
     
  10. S1a3t5u7r9n

    S1a3t5u7r9n Established commenter

    Thanks for that
    Not sure how a localised outbreak can causes a national figure of 2.88
    Also given the number is given to two decimal places it would be nice to know how it is calculated
    Despite my numerous attempts including contacting my own MP I still have not been shown how they calculate the R number
     
  11. alex_teccy

    alex_teccy Star commenter

    The-Two-Ronnies (1).jpg
     
    stopwatch likes this.
  12. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    R is an estimate of how many people a person with the virus is likely to infect. As I understand it (and I could be wrong), the value of R is affected by a number of factors, including the number of others the infected people are in contact with. The outbreaks in Germany are in very confined areas - hospitals, care homes and abbatoirs in which many of the employees are Romanians who wash and sleep in communal bathrooms and dormitories. This pushes the R up to very high levels in such specific locations. Overall, this can result in the range for Germany as a whole having to be expressed as, say, 0.4 to 4.9, with a mean of (say) 2.88 - the mean being midway between the low and high levels, and not an average in the common sense of the word.

    Thus, the R for almost all of Germany could well be very low, reflecting the current very low infection rate in most of the country, but the R is pushed up to 2.88 because of the very high infection rates in the buildings and localities identified.

    That is my understanding, but I could well be wrong as I have never seen an explanation of how a nationwide R is calculated.
     
    alex_teccy likes this.
  13. S1a3t5u7r9n

    S1a3t5u7r9n Established commenter

    Sir Patrick has announced there will be an update on R later in the week
     
  14. S1a3t5u7r9n

    S1a3t5u7r9n Established commenter

    The previous thread has been locked for 6 hours .
    Really
     
  15. S1a3t5u7r9n

    S1a3t5u7r9n Established commenter

    You were all correct not to worry about the R value
    Boris has announced that we should all assess our own individual risk
     
  16. S1a3t5u7r9n

    S1a3t5u7r9n Established commenter

    Previous post 01.35
     
  17. gainly

    gainly Star commenter

  18. T34

    T34 Lead commenter

    Say one person only in Germany is infected, and that person passes the illness on to 3 people, than the national figure for R is 3
     
  19. racroesus

    racroesus Star commenter

    If there is an outbreak in a population that is new to the population and the outbreak starts with one person then for the first few infections we can work out how many, on average, each infected person is, in turn, infecting. At the start the infection will be very limited geographically but the R-nought will give a national value. In a mature infection widespread geographically the R value will be a national value. If the number of cases falls to very low values so R will fall to low values but if infection begins in a small, susceptible population hitherto untouched the R value there would increase towards R-nought raising the national value again. I had a bad day fishing yesterday and the doctor told me I have gout this morning so I might be somewhat mentally unbalanced.
     
  20. S1a3t5u7r9n

    S1a3t5u7r9n Established commenter

    Not unbalanced at all
     

Share This Page