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The value of R

Discussion in 'Personal' started by S1a3t5u7r9n, May 28, 2020.

  1. T34

    T34 Lead commenter

    London is at R=0.4. The North East is at R=0.8.
    Why is the average person in the North East infecting more people than is the average person in London, given that lockdown is no less stringent in the North East?

    All I can think of is that consequent upon the recent large number of deaths and infections in London, there are now fewer potential victims, due to the greater percentage of those with virus resistance within its population.

    Herd immunity is the inevitable outcome, whatever we do..
     
  2. S1a3t5u7r9n

    S1a3t5u7r9n Established commenter

    Brilliant
    Made me chuckle
     
  3. S1a3t5u7r9n

    S1a3t5u7r9n Established commenter

    R nought?
     
  4. S1a3t5u7r9n

    S1a3t5u7r9n Established commenter

    Did not manage 7.23
     
  5. S1a3t5u7r9n

    S1a3t5u7r9n Established commenter

     
  6. S1a3t5u7r9n

    S1a3t5u7r9n Established commenter

    Herd immunity
    Haven’t we herd that from Mr Cummings
    How is Test and Trace doing
     
  7. ilovesooty

    ilovesooty Star commenter

  8. baitranger

    baitranger Senior commenter

    An earlier indication could be achieved by testing sewage. That's being done in the US and other countries.
     
  9. border_walker

    border_walker Lead commenter

    I have wondered the same. Possibly some areas are better at following instructions to reduce the pandemic. Possibly the number of people who have had the virus in some areas is larger than thought and greater numbers are immune and reducing the spread. possibly there are socio-economic differences affecting the spread.

    it would be interesting to see R numbers for even smaller areas, but I assume that they don't have the data, or are not sharing it.

    Why don't the press ask more interesting questions?
     
    Catgirl1964 and T34 like this.
  10. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    London is further ahead along the curve than the North East. The peak in London was at least six weeks ago, while it was only three weeks ago in the North East.
     
  11. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    No R numbers, but the following is said to be based on ONS data (I think, sample data):

    [​IMG]

    There's going to be a complaint that Cornwall has been cut off again! But I don't think Covid-19 is very widespread in the South West, apart from the outbreak centred on Weston Hospital (10 on the map).
     
  12. phlogiston

    phlogiston Star commenter

    This article https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ronavirus-infection-rate-too-high-second-wave has some explanation about Ro.
    Sorry I couldn't find you an article say that it's all made up..
     
    EmanuelShadrack likes this.
  13. phlogiston

    phlogiston Star commenter

    The smaller the area, the more the data applies to a small number of people and stops being useful information other than for the people involved.
    They are now noting spikes of infections in individual communities.
     
  14. T34

    T34 Lead commenter

    That's not (directly) relevant.

    The R number depends only on the ability of the virus to find suitable victims.
    It depends only on the availability of victims.
    It's finding victims more easily in Newcastle than in London.

    Lockdown is probably more complete in the North East - no tubes, less commuting, wider spaces, etc.

    I can see only one conclusion...
     
  15. border_walker

    border_walker Lead commenter

    But if lockdown slows the spread of the virus then everywhere would peak at the same time. When this doesn't happen other factors must be coming into play. It could for example mean more people have caught it with no symptoms and have produced herd immunity lowering the R faster as there are less potential victims.
    i struggle to understand why different areas peak at different times if everywhere is doing the same thing?
     
    T34 likes this.
  16. border_walker

    border_walker Lead commenter

    Exactly - the people in an area with a high infection need to know.
     
  17. Bedlam3

    Bedlam3 Star commenter

    I read that too and also that it is thought the virus can live in faeces for up to 6 weeks. We won't be eating any peanuts from the bar for a while.
     
    racroesus likes this.
  18. jubilee

    jubilee Star commenter

    When Lockdown was brought in, the main flashpoints for illness were London, Birmingham and a few other big cities. Behaviours there to limit contact with others may well have been adopted sooner on a voluntary basis. That would result in those places spiking earlier and starting on the downward curve earlier.
    More people in other areas might have carried on as normal, thinking that they were well away from the virus hotspots.

    Some of us were more cautious and took steps before the lockdown to limit exposure. I'm in the NorthWest and I started the process going to cancel weekly meetings of an Art group before the government took action. We have predominantly elderly members. Some members had already decided to stay at home all the time. Others were glad that someone was making the decision for them and were asking me on the phone if I thought that they should stop meeting people and get family to do their shopping. I told them to hunker down and not take any risks. Many others were going about as normal.
    There was just one suspected case of Covid in a 5 mile radius by the following weekend, but a Care home in the constituency lost half its residents in May and 6 of the remaining 16 were ill.
    We just have to hope that the peak has been reached here this month.
     
  19. T34

    T34 Lead commenter

    "R" doesn't follow the curve.
    The curve follows "R" !
     
  20. burajda

    burajda Star commenter

    Part of County Durham is cut off too, perhaps its the bit with Barnard Castle so Dom thought it was safe to go there as its not on the map.
     
    ajrowing likes this.

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