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Spike coming

Discussion in 'Personal' started by hs9981, Aug 9, 2020.

  1. hs9981

    hs9981 Lead commenter

  2. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    Funny sort of spike: the daily infection rate's 7-day average has been going down for the last few days, while the mortality and hospital admission rates have been going down for six weeks.

    ACOYEAR8 Star commenter

    The Lancet commented two days ago:

    There is an annual seasonal autumnal spike in asthma attacks in children and young people (the so-called September epidemic) due to colder weather, common viral infections, aeroallergen exposure, and reduced asthma medication compliance.
    It is unclear where various countries will be with respect to ongoing community spread of COVID-19 in the autumn, but we anticipate constraints in ongoing health-care resource allocation in many parts of the world; for example, prioritisation of respiratory care in people with moderate to severe asthma, including limitation of exposure to aerosol generating procedures such as spirometry.
    These constraints might reduce access and follow up for children and young people with milder asthma, who are at high risk of asthma exacerbations and emergency department visits. However, as stay at home orders have had a substantial impact on children and young people, including decreased vaccination rates, delayed management of health conditions, prolonged exposure to indoor home air pollutants, and impacts on mental health, it is possible that in some children and young people a return to school might improve overall asthma control.
    It is important to reassure families that severe COVID-19 infection is rare in children and young people, irrespective of underlying asthma.
    Despite this, children and young people with asthma might be at high risk of missing out on education when schools reopen. Asthma can be confused with COVID-19 respiratory symptoms,
    and children and young people with cough and wheeze at school are at greater risk of being sent home. To minimise this disruption, rapid testing services, which are likely to be stretched, should be prioritised for children and young people wherever possible. Primary, secondary, and tertiary care services can also mitigate this problem by adhering to evidence-based approaches to childhood asthma. In particular, a focus on asthma control, risk stratification, and medication adherence will be essential, including ongoing review of inhaler technique and a personalised written asthma action plan, whether in-person or virtually.
    Prioritising less (or no) short-acting bronchodilator use, as recommended in the Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA) 2019 and 2020 strategy, and clear stepwise action plans might improve asthma control and management among people with mild asthma. An ongoing cycle of assess, adjust, and review, as recommended in the GINA guideline, is essential because a return to school this year might impact asthma in ways that are unpredictable at present. An appreciation of the effect of social determinants of health among families of children and young people with asthma, whether this be housing quality, adequately heated and ventilated homes, access to transportation, poverty, health literacy, access to medications, or access to health care,
    will be important, since economic depression is anticipated to worsen.
    Broad access to influenza vaccination will be an important public health strategy to further decrease risk, and particular effort must be made to educate families about the benefits of vaccinating children and young people with asthma.
    Little guidance exists on how to transition children and young people with asthma back to school and how to counsel their caregivers on mediation of risk.
  4. Sally006

    Sally006 Lead commenter

    Not sure where you live but my area’s infection rate has risen by 150% on the previous week’s infection rates. Admittedly numbers are still low but the trend is a concern.
  5. hs9981

    hs9981 Lead commenter

    The beaches look busy... Nice beer garden weather...

    I think the week beginning Aug 18th will be important.

    Last minute decisions made then about September...
    ACOYEAR8 likes this.
  6. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    The small fall in the infection rate is a nationwide statistic. It hides the fact that in some areas, infection rates have risen while in others infection rates have dropped below the national average. Sorry to hear about your area, but in other areas infection rates have remained low or are falling.
  7. Scintillant

    Scintillant Star commenter

    I would think Oct and Nov will be grim. If we're getting these outbreaks now, then when schools have been back a few weeks (essentially without distancing or masks), and the temperatures have dropped, that's when cases will become problematic.

    We are still setting stupid arbitrary deadlines for our response, rather than basing decisions on sound public health advice.
    LiamD, Sally006 and Catgirl1964 like this.
  8. needabreak

    needabreak Star commenter

    When you tell a group of people they are less likely to die from it, they go out and celebrate, perhaps they plan on not visiting their grandparents for a couple of weeks.
    ACOYEAR8 likes this.
  9. hs9981

    hs9981 Lead commenter

  10. Oscillatingass

    Oscillatingass Star commenter

    Ah yes but Dominic Cummings has been doctoring the figures which in reality are frighteningly high (according to The Guardian).
  11. bombaysapphire

    bombaysapphire Star commenter

  12. ACOYEAR8

    ACOYEAR8 Star commenter

  13. Morninglover

    Morninglover Star commenter

    This is from the DM, but even so it might be true/being discussed by Govt/Civil Servants:

    Obese people could be told to stay at home in Covid hotspots if virus cases surge amid second wave this autumn
    • Obese people could be told to stay home amid fears of second coronavirus wave
    • The Government is reportedly looking at plans for 'more sophisticated' shielding
    • Over-50s could be among other vulnerable groups that are told to stay indoors

    As a not obese over 50 who has followed very government instruction since Covid came (unlike some well known figures!), I won't follow this. Indeed, if introduced, I will endeavour to gout more, go further and generally ignore it. I see it as age discrimination.
  14. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    Are you sure? I thought he was busy increasing the count of cross-channel migrants this weekend, followed by reducing A-level grades in the coming days. :rolleyes:
  15. magic surf bus

    magic surf bus Star commenter

    Here's a Spike I'd be happy to see again, with a pertinent question:

    Ro13, Sally006, sadscientist and 5 others like this.
  16. ukpaul

    ukpaul Occasional commenter

    The virus does not care if you feel younger, all it sees is an older, and more compromised, set of organs and cardiovascular system. Some conditions, such as high blood pressure, diabetes and such will make them even more damaged but age is turning out to be the largest factor with this virus.

    On beaches and other outdoor activities, the chances of catching the virus are vastly reduced if outdoors where there is rapid movement of air (this being also an airborne virus).

    A hundred outdoor activities wouldn't get near one activity where a group are indoors with no masks, distancing and air filtration/ventilation.
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2020
    LiamD likes this.
  17. hhhh

    hhhh Star commenter

    Mine too-wonder if you live near me, where people are seriously scared that their child will be left with no parents if the government insists on opening schools? People can't afford the fines, and many are happy to teach their children themselves until a vaccine arrives, but (I was told by a local mum) they aren't allowed to keep their children safe at home until this happens-unless they officially pull them out to homeschool).
    People are sick and frightened-some of them. Others are enjoying the pubs in Manchester, going to the beach at Blackpool, then for a meal in Preston...
  18. Ro13

    Ro13 Occasional commenter

    [QUOTEo="magic surf bus, post: 13227330, member: 550571"]Here's a Spike I'd be happy to see again, with a pertinent question:

    Or this one .... :D

    Last edited: Aug 10, 2020
  19. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    Do you have many parents in their 70s and 80s with diabetes, obesity and co-morbidity in your area?
  20. ACOYEAR8

    ACOYEAR8 Star commenter

    There will be a surge again as people forget or become complacent. Pandemics always have second surges. It will not deter the Govt from opening schools. I really want to get back in front of students. Do I want to get back to a class where everyone is apprehensive, socially distancing and some are behaving in a manner likely to endanger the health of teachers ? It's not going to help their learning is it ?
    Have you ever been on a plane through severe turbulence ? Passengers aren't getting out their books and settling down are they ?

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