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So what now for Brexit?

Discussion in 'Personal' started by dumpty, Dec 13, 2018.

  1. EmanuelShadrack

    EmanuelShadrack Star commenter

    I see. Thanks for answering the question.

    So if Johnson twiddles merrily away, is it certain that Ollie's army will be on their way?

    Couldn't resist a bit of a rhyme, for Friday evening is the time.
     
  2. MrMedia

    MrMedia Star commenter

    Yes, with the DUP, the governing Conservative party, along with the DUP, has a majority of 3 now that their man has been sacked. Grieves and Clark have both openly said they’d bring the government down.

    But make no mistake. Johnson isn’t some hell bent brexiteer fixated on no deal at all costs. That’s just a straw man position he adopts to get people to vote for him. Trump said he would build a wall and as he campaigns for a second term of president the wall has still not been built.

    Johnson would never casually toss away power simply because of the fact that he promised to do something. What he has done, however, is convince people that he would. Which is a pretty neat trick.

    He’s already started on his gatt 24 nonsense. Effectively he is pretending he is saying to the EU, why do we need a WA? Why not just freeze everything until we have a deal? And of course Brexiteers say yes, why? And the EU says, that’s all complete legal nonsense! But it doesn’t matter if it’s a unicorn dressed as a fairy sailing in the high seas weighing up its anchor - Johnson can call for these things and people will say, yes, why not? And vote for him. Almost more Trump than Trump himself.
     
  3. EmanuelShadrack

    EmanuelShadrack Star commenter

    Ta muchly. Thought-provoking as usual.
     
  4. dumpty

    dumpty Star commenter

    The problem for Oliver's Army is they already have tried again to take over the process and they lost the vote. (About two weeks ago)

    Letwin has himself said he sees no new way. The first one was a disaster and got nowhere, this 2nd one was voted down - even Bercow is struggling to find ways to allow it back for a 3rd go.

    As only the government can set legislation changes and the law re A.50 says we leave on October 31st, Boris with a Boris friendly cabinet could indeed just run the clock down.

    Grieve and co can get lots of stop Brexit amendments but they will not be legally binding.

    Having said that I get the feeling Boris will call everyone's bluff and allow the HoC to vote in the hope - as we saw with the lost vote above to stop it all - he can talk around his own party bar a few to vote for him AND hope 8 or so Labour MPs will again cross ranks or abstain.

    As he has touched upon, if lots is done to prepare for no deal it should (in theory) be easier to get the votes he needs.
     
  5. FrankWolley

    FrankWolley Star commenter


    And if they won't, he can always assault a few of the female MPs, eh?;)
     
  6. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    The Institute for Government produced a detailed paper last month, explaining why parliament would now find it very difficult to prevent a No Deal Brexit:

    https://www.instituteforgovernment....r-intent-no-deal-brexit-cant-be-stopped-mps-0

    "It looks like a near impossible task for MPs to stop a prime minister who is determined to leave the EU without a deal. Parliamentary procedure offers no route, and the only apparent way to blocking no deal – a vote of no confidence – would be a massive gamble for Tory MPs."
    The same article makes the point that if a vote of no confidence led to a general election and a new government, the sands of time would run out so fast that the new prime minister - whoever that would be - would need to persuade the EU to grant another extension before the 31st October deadline is reached. All in all, not very likely given the summer recession and the change of EU personnel.
     
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2019
    EmanuelShadrack and dumpty like this.
  7. EmanuelShadrack

    EmanuelShadrack Star commenter

    Thank you.

    So, assuming the EU won't change the deal (which they won't), and assuming Johnson wants to remain PM as long as possible, i.e. not have a GE, then a no-deal is indeed a virtual certainty. Correct?
     
  8. Duke of York

    Duke of York Star commenter

    Not neccessarily. You are making the assumption that MPs are wedded to the Tory Party, rather than wanting to remain MPs for as long as they can.

    If you were good at your job and enjoyed it, but was in an organisation likely to go down the pan, would you be loyal to the organisation come what may, or would you consider jumping ship if an opportunity to continue doing the job you enjoyed, but working for a competitor?

    I couldn't see any likelihood of the Tories surviving the next election after the fiasco that Brexit has been under their management, so why would any sane Tory MP risk their career by remaining loyal to the party? Especially if a reckless buffoon gets put in charge.

    After last night's antics, you can bet your life there have been more than enough Tory MPs courting other party leaders and drafting their resignation letters.
     
    schoolsout4summer likes this.
  9. dumpty

    dumpty Star commenter

    The only real chance of overturning it all (again) is to vote the Tories down in the confidence vote that is very likely to be called by Corbyn.

    But then you are asking Tory MPs to end their own careers by going against the whip in this critical vote, end the careers of their colleagues and destroy the party possibly for decades AND, if all that was not enough, practically hand power to Corbyn by default as soon as they have done so.

    Sure, in theory anything can happen and Grieve is likely to vote down his own government as his knows his own Tory constituency members want him out anyhow.

    But it is a big ask to get many of the others to do it, not least when there is always the likelihood a few Labour MPs might again vote with the government anyhow as they know it will end Brexit so far as the WA is concerned and let everyone start rebuilding.
     
  10. Duke of York

    Duke of York Star commenter

    Yes.

    If a vote of no confidence brings the government down, a GE will damage the Labour Party too. There is no guarantee that Corbyn will survive. The most likely outcome of a GE is going to be another coalition government. It depends on what the share of seats won as to which parties are prepared to form a government. It's possible that Labour might have to sacrifice Corbyn in order to have another party, or other parties agree to form a coalition.

    Politicians move constituencies all the time. Grieve's constituency members might want him out, but they are far more likely to take an interest in his performance than those of another constituency. He has the reputation of being a successful politician and would be welcomed by the constituency members of a marginal Tory seat if they thought it would enhance their prospects.

    Nothing is ever black and white. The country isn't defined by Tory = leave, so Grieve won't ever be welcome. There will be remain constituencies that would love to have Grieve represent them.
     
  11. dumpty

    dumpty Star commenter

    Agree with many points @Duke of York not least that Labour won't really want a GE on the back of Labour stopping Brexit, but I think they expect Farage to do the dirty work for them and split the Tory vote so that even if Labour only gets a few per cent of the vote, they can form a government.

    All very risky.

    On Grieve, my thinking is anyone who does vote the government down in such a vote of no confidence would be booted out of the party and not allowed to stand in the GE as a Tory, whatever the constituents say or think and also wherever they may be on Brexit.
     
  12. burajda

    burajda Star commenter

    The problem of course is if we leave with No Deal, is that we'll still need to make A Deal with our closest and largest and most integrated trading partner. How would those negotiations with the EU and its members states go with the Party or PM who delivered 'no Deal'.
     
    Burndenpark likes this.
  13. sodalime

    sodalime Lead commenter

    Bet you wish you'd never asked, shadders ;)
    Very interesting reading all the replies, though.
     
    EmanuelShadrack likes this.
  14. Duke of York

    Duke of York Star commenter

    Everything associated with Brexit is risky. If it wasn't it would all have been done and dusted by now. Only a few clowns whose careers have been otherwise immemorable have been pushing for it. They know, as well as you and I, that although historians may one day record that Britain left the EU, there's little chance that those historians will record them as heroes.

    That's of little consequence to them though, since they only see Brexit as a vehicle for a relatively quck money spinner.

    They have the same mentality as those who profit from munitions in time of war and do their utmost to prevent and end to it, until the rest of the world steps in to ensure the slaughter needs to stop.

    I can't imagine Grieve being overly bothered by that. He made his name by being given a prestigious position in government. If the Tory Party doesn't want him, there will be another that would love the votes he'd attract, but even if he can't countenance another party's policies, he can stand as an independent and fare well.

    If he doesn't want to do that, there will be more than enough companies willing to take him on with a salary beyond our comprehension, just to be able to share his list of influential contacts.

    Even if he has had enough of cutting edge politics, someone will be on his case, asking if he can find time to fill a vacancy in the House of Lords. It gets ever more difficult as the years pass, to find politicians who haven't been caught with their hands in the till or have had their collars felt for others reasons.

    I don't pretend to know a lot about Grieve, but I'd remember the name as well as I do Jeffrey Archer, Jonathan Aitken or Neil Hammiton, whose contributions to politics were a disgrace and who never made it to the HoL, so I reckon Grieve would be as good a candidate as any for all parties to propose to be a Lord. For all we know, he might be one of the best they ever had.

    I can't see him being bothered one way or the other what the current men in grey suits think of him. Men of principal are hard to find in modern politics and although they might not always have their way, they don't go unnoticed.
     
  15. LondonCanary

    LondonCanary Star commenter

    You don't remember the name of The Lord Archer of Weston-super-Mare very well at all.
     
    Burndenpark likes this.
  16. Duke of York

    Duke of York Star commenter

    Did that cost him as much to get as he gave a prostitute in a brown envelope or a few bob more?

    Thank you though for pointing how how easy it is to milk the system when you're experienced enough and wily enough to know whose palms need to be greased.

    It wouldn't surprise me in the least to learn that Archer has the missing Dickens dossier in his posession.
     
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2019
  17. LondonCanary

    LondonCanary Star commenter

    I was pointing out how easy it to post the wrong information.
    Like Boris and Trump you don't acknowledge it.
    You do post some random rubbish.
     
  18. Duke of York

    Duke of York Star commenter

    Always best to attack the messanger, rather than the message. First rule in the Tory Party Handbook, ain't it Madge.

    You did well in responding within a few minutes of my post. They're bound to promote you if you can keep it up. A bit of advice though, I'd keep your options open about accepting promotion before you know which clown gets the top job.

    If it's a tie, they might have to call in a gynocologist to decide between them.
     
    schoolsout4summer likes this.
  19. LondonCanary

    LondonCanary Star commenter

    Your message about Archer and the Dickens dossier was rubbish. Making stuff up is different from being a messenger.
     
  20. lexus300

    lexus300 Star commenter

    Perhaps we need to cross that bridge?
     

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