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So what now for Brexit?

Discussion in 'Personal' started by dumpty, Dec 13, 2018.

  1. dumpty

    dumpty Star commenter

    The awful result for Change last night will have many Tories suddenly loving their party and of course wanting Brexit delivered.

    They know as do Change (now talking of begging the Lib Dems to amalgamate them) it is all over.
     
    lexus300 and Happygopolitely like this.
  2. dumpty

    dumpty Star commenter

    Only the Tories promised to take us out of the SM and CU and were elected to do that.
     
  3. MrMedia

    MrMedia Star commenter

    Ah @dumpty it was a good night for you. But you still won’t get your no deal Brexit or indeed any BRINO. I don’t think you’ll ever go away but you’ve had a good run. I can see what will happen. If there is no new public vote there will be a GE. One of those will come first. I can tell you now, the Lib Party is detoxified and they will be 50-70 strong at the next election. Your only chance is to somehow beat the parliamentary arithmetic before the next GE or public vote.
     
    eljefeb90 likes this.
  4. LondonCanary

    LondonCanary Lead commenter

    What will stop the 31/10 default with Parliament impotent?
     
  5. dumpty

    dumpty Star commenter

    As @LondonCanary has pointed out, it does depend on whether or not the new PM has it in him or her to go for it and, as Leadsom said, just say to the EU 'come back and talk to us about the backstop and we can make a deal, if you don't then no problem, we leave'

    If you take a step back and remove your own desires on Brexit, it has to be very tempting for the new leader to do that seeing how many millions backed not only Brexit but a WTO Brexit last night.

    The parliamentary arithmetic is changing now I would expect and mostly within the Tories. They all know now it is suicide to go soft on Brexit.

    Agree it is all still tight but as we saw last night, the people will vote for a clear message. Labour were hammered on doing the opposite.
     
    Happygopolitely and lexus300 like this.
  6. lexus300

    lexus300 Star commenter

    :cool: That is between me and the ballot box:p
     
    Happygopolitely likes this.
  7. MAGAorMIGA

    MAGAorMIGA Star commenter

    I disagree with those who say the result proves the Labour strategy of "constructive ambiguity" was clearly wrong, and that they should now come out firmly for Remain. Had they done that before the Euroelection they would have been competing with the LibDems and the Greens for the 48% (maybe now 52%). This would not have gone well, and they would have driven the Labour Leave voters into the arms of Farage. Had they chosen the opposite stance, it would have been even worse. Therefore, yes the election results for Labour were disastrous, but they weren't catastrophic, which they very easily could have been. They should continue advocating Brexit with a deal for British workers, if one can be achieved, with a confirmatory vote on any Deal reached.
     
    nervousned likes this.
  8. Scintillant

    Scintillant Star commenter

    If Labour come out as strongly Remain, then the country will be divided even more deeply.

    We are in very big mess.
     
  9. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    Not if they appoint another idiot like Tim Farron as leader after Sir Vince retires in a few weeks' time.
     
    MrMedia likes this.
  10. MrMedia

    MrMedia Star commenter

    Indeed not!
     
  11. Burndenpark

    Burndenpark Star commenter

    Elected? That's rather a strong term isn't it? I think you mean nearly elected and had to bribe the DUP to get over the line?
     
    sodalime likes this.
  12. Burndenpark

    Burndenpark Star commenter

    Reversing privatisation would be stupid on 2 counts.
    1) If done fairly it would be ruinously expensive and if done unfairly it would make the country so unattractive to investors that it would be worse.
    2) Lots of people supported privatisations

    Lots also supported the anti-union laws.

    I guess the same we- who voted for Brexit.

    Agreed in part- but your analysis is lacking.

    Yep. But they know that if they go that way and it fails then they may as well sell off head office and close down their local branches. A WTO Brexit is a ridiculously high risk gamble - probably destroying the Tories.

    Probably - be interesting to see who goes where.

    It is worth noting that while Brexit took votes from the Tories- and possibly some from Labour- they can't account for the drop in support for both those parties. In fact- if you assume that the Labour deserters all went to the Libs and Greens they don't cover the full increase. There's only one sensible conclusion- the Tories lost voters both to Leave but also to Remain.
     
    sodalime likes this.
  13. dumpty

    dumpty Star commenter


    Agree and as much as I am not a Labour supporter I feel a tad sorry for Corbyn. He had a dream and in this days of fudge and hypocrisy, one I may well have voted for just to give it a go....as the elections proved, we just want things - anything- done. Even Corbyn's socialism is better than stagnation as now. And it would have been an education and great ride.

    Alas, he will go the same way as May. I think he is already being set up for his Julius Caeser moment soon and ' Et tu, Watson??'
     
    border_walker and lexus300 like this.
  14. CraigCarterSmith

    CraigCarterSmith Established commenter

    and in anyway right ?

    Cause that type of unelected we're A OK with :D
     
  15. harsh-but-fair

    harsh-but-fair Star commenter

    Remember that this Tory government has already renationalised Railtrack and the East Coast Mainline.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...s-failure-chris-grayling-latest-a8354031.html
     
  16. irs1054

    irs1054 Star commenter

    Actually I don't think it is the law. Whether we leave is up to the EU and they can, if they wish, extend the extension. There is actually no limit to this though at some point they may decide they have had enough.

    Leaving both the SM and CU is untenable because the UK would be in breach of international treaty.

    I haven't said the whole debate, I have pointed out that aspects of the debate were meaningless but still influential. Stop trying to produce strawmans.

    Oh because they have said so and continued to say so and continued to behave as if this is so. Making no-deal a real threat is no real threat to the EU. If it comes to a choice the EU will let the UK inflict a no deal on itself.

    Again stop making strawman arguments. I said the '16 vote was invalid.
    As far as no deal is concerned, the idea wasnever really mentioned during the referendum and indeed prominent leave campaigners argued it would be illegal under A50. So the idea that the leave vote in the '16 ref supports a no deal exit is completely dishonest. (of course the same is true for any other type of exit because "leave" wasn't defined)

    As far as Tory wannabe leaders are concerned BJ has already said he would take the UK out on no deal and this has been treated as serious by other members of the party.

    And no the Tories weren't voted in, they are a minority Government propped up by the DUP. May went to the electorate to ask for an increased majority to allow them to do Brexit and the electorate said "no". In no sense can you say that the Tories have a mandate for Brexit.

    Which he didn't expect to get when he promised to have a referendum.
     
  17. dumpty

    dumpty Star commenter

    Yep but them be the rules and once in the driving seat with their agreeable passenger (well, not that this turned out too well for May at least!) it makes sense they do what they were elected/voted into government to do and said they would. Every single issue for the Tories is down to that - only that is not doing what they said they would.

    It really does depend on how they sell it and what they do to prepare and help it. I know many in the media want to ignore what Farage did and concentrate on the Lib Dems but take a step back and see what it says to the new PM - many people in the UK are not afraid of the risk, indeed they embrace it.

    Decent work and yes, good PR could have the Tories in power for ages - even if it fails as you say. 'We were the ONLY ones that respected you....we gave you what you wanted.....we tried all these things to help.....' etc etc.

    Of course, the other side is if it goes well? Also in power then for ages.

    On balance it is hard to see how the new leader can be trying to fudge a remain as May, not least when she got booted out on it and delivered the worst council elections and EU elections in party history ....AND an historic defeat on her remain deal!

    Going soft on Brexit was the biggest risk for the Tories. That failed. Leaving without a deal we do not know how will go - but what we do know is a party with the highest singular vote ( in the entire EU too, I believe?) and who won here massively against age old establishment parties did so on one issue ....leave on WTO terms right now.
     
    border_walker likes this.
  18. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    You still haven't told us what the Electoral Commission said when you informed them that the referendum vote was invalid.
     
  19. irs1054

    irs1054 Star commenter

    Still trying to use strawman arguments I see. Are you ever going to realise how useless they are?
     
  20. dumpty

    dumpty Star commenter

    I'm not sure on what legal basis you can infer if the UK says we are leaving October 31st and the EU says 'nah, we demand you re-think a little longer' we have no other choice than to agree.


    Then I missed that. I know that is what I said - that all words influence to a little or large degree - do not remember you saying it. If you are now, then no beef there.

    Not in our recent debate you did not. I know it is an argument you have made but I do not remember you mentioning this specifically over the last few pages when we started discussing.


    Again, you do not know what issues people were voting for in an election - it was not a referendum with one issue. Anyhow, most votes were cast for two parties able to work together on a promise to their voters to deliver a true Brexit.

    ???? What has that got to do with the fact that when he did promise a referendum, the majority government he then got would tend to indicate support for the referendum and what he was doing?
     

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