So what now for Brexit?

A free trade deal that includes services? Now that would be ambitious.
When it comes to services, its the opposite of goods, we need them, more than they need us. Weve a large trade surplus with the EU on services.
For the financial services, its equivalence that matters, but that may make us a rule taker rather than a rule maker.

 

And theyll want to sell us technology. As, we're leaving the EU and our future trade position is formulating, it seems the big kids on the block are already making their presence known. Seems one of our arms is being twisted by fast growth PRC and the other by slow growth USA.

 

Well there you go. May of course had little choice and it had to be today lest she be seen to quit because Farage calls for it should he win big this Sunday. She has taken a little of the wind out of his sails - although it would be quite comical (not for her) if the opinion polls again get it badly wrong and we see the Lib Dems getting the landslide

Channel 4 news almost having kittens at the fear of a no deal Brexit being delivered, inviting anti Brexit MPs on and asking them how they will stop Boris before the leadership contest has even started.

And of course a long interview with Michael Heseltine.......yawn.....

Still, this is all Boris needs to do:

Himself - PM
Deputy - Jacob Rees-Mogg
Brexit Secretary - Raab

Sack Hammon, sack Rudd.

 

If your prediction happens, All he needs to do hasnt changed. Get the Tory MPs united behind him for a hard Brexit and get it delivered through Parliament.
I think Boris may not end up delivering the clean break that the blue rinse membership would expect.

 

Boris will shaft you quicker than Gove wrote the history curriculum. I’m sorry, but as a Remainer, I feel it is my duty to warn you not to underestimate the siren call of power and PMship to sociopath politicians. They can only stay PM if they deliver both remain and Brexit together. The reality is a BRINO or a reform the EU from within.

 

This was Ch 4's worry though as most analysts agree it is not as easy this time for parliament to stop Boris or Raab if they really are serious about a WTO Brexit.

Of course, it has not really fooled anyone that the EU and WTO Brexiteers talk as if they are totally unaware just some serious changes in one area - the backstop - and we have a deal.

Is that really going to be what takes us all to WTO rules? A refusal to amend the backstop?

 

He's had a go at that and didn't like it.

Hammon? Is that Hammond or Gammon - or may be a mixture of the two?

 

Then, theres the other side. The new commission? Macron pre election posturing damaged by Le Pen?

 

Not really a big enough sample to prove anything, and theres not really a lot of Remain majority areas in the list, even towards the top.

 

Both sides have said they want one. There is no advantage to either side not to have one.

The UK makes very little use of financial markets on the continent. The trade is very much the other way. But in any case, all UK financial firms of any size have offices in Europe, and that enables them to continue trading in the EU after Brexit.

Yes, we all know that. But international trade statistics are almost always for the whole UK. People rarely compare the exports of, say, Northern Ireland, with those of Wallonia. UK v. Belgium is much more usual.

 

LOL
How has that panned out over our 40+ year membership. It is a line much used and rarely justified in fact.

 

It might not be for long.
https://www.gbc.gi/news/redundancie...-gib-operation-malta-due-brexit-uncertainties

"BET365, a gaming company based in Gibraltar, has announced a relocation of operations to Malta."

 

What will be going on with Brexit for the next two and a bit months.

Absolutely nothing.

..and then parliament goes on it's summer hols.

 

That's not really anything to do with the enormous financial sector in London, although it is yet another result of the Brexit uncertainty caused by MPs not being able to reach a decision.

 

As did no leave backing Brexit secretary working for a remainer, May. I'm sure he would be much more enthusiastic if working under a leave leader.

Again a point being panicked out there by lefty media - if parliament does nothing, the no deal option becomes even harder to destroy as they could before.

Farage is still da man. Some analysts believe Macron will not be shackled by the EU elections when the next deadline approaches and that he may (with many in the EU's blessing) pull the veto plug not least to get rid of Farage and possibly his 20 odd anti EU mps.

Of the two sides IF we get Boris or Raab as leader, I would tend to believe the EU less in these threats. No deal rather than amend the backstop??? Seriously??

So much is riding on the actual result of the EU election.

 

Its the same for things like GDP or GDP per capita. The UK is still the sixth or seventh largest economy in the world, but the regions of the UK are pretty unequal when compared to each other. Many are below the EU average GDP per captia. London may compare with Paris or Southern Netherlands but Lincolnshire or South West Wales are more comparable with Andalucia or Gdansk-Pomerania

 

20 out of about 720? 'Da man?' Not really. Macron will have more to worry about with his own 20 Frexiters.

 

Not sure what you count as very little use on the continent, but there is around a £26 billion trade surplus with Europe at the moment - https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nati...dombalanceofpaymentsthepinkbook/2018/42d41884

Much of the no-EU trade is conducted through deals with the EU that will be gone once the UK leaves the EU.

As you note, the firms have offices in Europe and are already moving assets to them (almost £1 trillion). This reduces the UK’s tax receipts by about 1%.

Yes, it makes sense to define it by the two bodies that set the terms of what trade can be done between them, for a financial recording point of view. A company may need to be more exact about which market it is going to though. In which case if you're outside the EU, you are trading with them as there is no difference in customers within it.

A company in America wanting to sell dongles in Austria could land them in Belgium and transport them to Austria by train. A record of importation though Belgium will exist but there is not necessarily going to be any need to record the intra-EU movements of goods and there will be no taxes or declarations between borders. If the demand moves to France they can send them there instead or if port charges are cheaper in NL send the point of entry there.

 

Who said it was? It may take longer for those who organise gambling on the stock exchange to relocate than it does for those who organise gambling from tax havens, but it's an indication of a trend. Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, Betfair, Betfred, you name any of the well known bookmakers, you find they are all based in Gibraltar these days and are eyeing up Malta, as the better place for them to be is in inside the EU.

 

Yep- makes sense why would you want someone numerate in the treasury?

You could install another unicorn counter and everything will be fine.

As I recall - he had a panic attack after discovering that the UK is an Island and that the main sea link to the EU goes from Dover

None?

If Brexit were to stop looking like a disaster there might be other countries willing to give it a go. As long as it is clearly failing they won't. That looks like a massive incentive to only give us a deal that stops us making other deals.