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So what now for Brexit?

Discussion in 'Personal' started by dumpty, Dec 13, 2018.

  1. peakster

    peakster Star commenter

    Worry not people - we will shortly be in a new dawn

    One where an inappropriate and properly incompetent individual (Johnson) will be our new PM.

    The transition of this country to worldwide laughing stock will be truly complete.
    dumbbells66 and ajrowing like this.
  2. 2468motorway

    2468motorway New commenter

    Anything but Corbyn or May!
  3. peakster

    peakster Star commenter

    ..and talking of laughing stocks - the extremely stable nutcase is coming soon.

    The country will sell out of milkshakes
    mathsmutt, Burndenpark and ajrowing like this.
  4. FrankWolley

    FrankWolley Star commenter

    This analysis seems spot on...

    This prime minister was destroyed by Brexit. And the next one will be too.


    Brexit broke this prime minister, just like it broke the last one. But it won't end there. It'll break the next one too. And it'll keep on breaking them, until we admit what it is.

    It is a beast. That's the honest truth of it. You can ignore it. You can write pieces about how we should all pretend the beast is not in the room and come back together as a country. You can urge people to look at how the beast has attractive ears, if you look at them in the right light, and try not to notice the claws or the great big slavering canines. You can stubbornly insist that people voted for the beast and refuse to pay attention to how it is ominously peering down at you. It doesn't matter. The beast remains a beast and eventually it'll eat you alive.

    The truth about Brexit - the plain and simple truth of it, which no-one can make go away - is that it can only be done to a long timetable and with a lot of pain. It is fiendishly complicated. It requires the full capacity of the British political system for about five to seven years. The sacrifices it demands would probably never be accepted by parliament. And if you managed to get over all those obstacles, your only accomplishment would be to make the country poorer and weaker than it was before.

    A true Brexiter, someone who was really committed to doing this, would not be lying and misleading, like May, or out on the street promoting their own pure ideological certainty, like Nigel Farage. They would be honest about the timeframe and the trade offs.

    If the border is to remain open in Ireland as it is now, we need to accept the backstop and then a very close regulatory relationship. If you want free movement to end, you are cutting off services access to the continent, which is extremely harmful for an economy like the UK's. If you give up your role in Europe, you lose the ability to shape global regulations and will eventually have to get in line with rules you had no hand in forming. These are simple facts and no amount of gibberish about 'max-fac' or 'hybrid solutions' or 'alternative arrangements' has made them go away.

    Maybe that's all worth it. But if so it needs someone who is prepared to say it - to level with voters about what is happening. Over the last three years we have seen a masterclass in the consequences of not doing so. Crazed secrecy, logical contortions, transparent parliamentary tricks, and the use of deception as a primary function of the operation of government.

    The next Tory leader will find themselves in precisely this place, but much sooner. During the campaign, they will probably have to commit to renegotiations, which will not happen, and then no-deal. At that point, there are three potential outcomes.

    The first, and most likely, is that they will decide not to do it. They will get the same top-level briefings May received on the short-term economic shock and the long term economic damage, on the security implications, on the likelihood of the eventual break-up of the UK. And there is a good chance, if they are rational, that at that point they will balk, just as she did.

    If they balk, they will have to accept the existing divorce deal, with the backstop. Then we'll be back where we are now. The inane cries of betrayal and frustrated destiny will destroy them, as they did her.

    The second is that they do not balk, but that parliament stops them. There are problems here. Without the European Union Withdrawal Act, there is no obvious way to take control of the parliamentary agenda again. But it is highly likely that John Bercow will provide one to stop a decision of this severity being inflicted on the country without parliamentary approval, probably through making neutral motions amendable. And then we'll be flung back into the same constitutional impasse we were in this winter. And all the inane cries of Remainer parliaments and a conspiracy in the establishment will return.

    The third is that they succeed and execute no-deal. Then there will be short term chaos - massive traffic jams at the border, essential equipment and medical substances not getting in, an aggressive decline in sterling - followed by long-term stagnation and national decline. Suddenly all the people cheering on a no-deal prime minister will vanish. The one-third of the public who back it will forget they ever did so the moment they find the supermarket shelves empty. People only support extreme political ideas if they are confident they will not experience their consequences. Once they are actually inconvenienced, they will look for someone to blame. No-deal will destroy whoever is in charge at the time.

    That's the outlook. Every outcome leads to doom. Brexit is a beast. It will trundle over political careers like they were ants beneath its talons.

    There are only two options for the next Tory leader: Either cancel Brexit, which they will not do, or be honest with people about what it entails, which they will not do either. So the same thing will happen again, to someone else, in a slightly different way. And it'll keep on happening, until there is someone brave enough to say the thing that is so glaringly obvious: This is all a terrible mistake.
  5. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    The result of the vote has not, despite the promise, been enacted.

    Why would anyone trust another referendum after that sort of precedent?
  6. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    Rubbish. If an importer in Germany agrees to buy 6000 widgets at €10 a dozen, that doesn't set terms which require an importer in Italy to pay the same or to order the same amount.

    When comparing exports, the comparison should be between countries - what we sell to France v. what we sell to the USA; what we sell to China v. what we sell to Germany, etc. Trying to big up the EU by grouping together nearly 30 countries simply distorts trading statistics, because the EU27 do not buy things as a single nation.
  7. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    Radio 4 has just reported that the Institute for Government has confirmed that to be true (without actually mentioning Boris).

    They said that if the new Prime Minister decided to leave with no deal, parliament could not stop him or her. The only thing that could be done would be for large numbers of Tories to vote against themselves in a no confidence vote, in the hope of bringing about a general election and driving themselves out of government.

    Likely? I think not. Be careful who you vote for!
    monicabilongame likes this.
  8. Burndenpark

    Burndenpark Star commenter

    Echoing what I said to Mr Ed a day or 2 ago about the public tendering process.

    We have to go through it when we swap out either large numbers of mid price items (250-300 x £1k) or any very large items. The people running the show know who they want to win and modify the testing criteria to ensure the desired result. If the Navy had wanted the Babcock bid to win they would have made sure it did.

    There's another cheat going on there too. Switzerland & Norway aren't in the EU, their figures are excluded from the EU's total, but they are part of the trade deal we have with the EU

    Thank goodness she's not supporting something currently that has that effect.:rolleyes:
  9. Burndenpark

    Burndenpark Star commenter

    But as I pointed out- we trade very little with the nation states, we trade with companies & individuals who are based in them.

    Even if we allow these jokers to use semantics to show that we don't trade much with the EU then they should have the honesty to accept that we don't trade much with Germany either, or the USA or any nation state. I really doubt they will admit that though.
    Stiltskin and harsh-but-fair like this.
  10. dleaf12

    dleaf12 Lead commenter

    Its not really about trust anymore though is it? Ref2 is about giving a fig leaf of respectability to a parliamentary decision to Revoke Art50. In any case that route seems to be rapidly receding to the point of being moot as TM seems set to go before the WA bill can even be presented.

    Only problem is we dont get a vote unless we're members of the Tory party - and even there the choice will be limited to one of two - if they are both rabid Brexiteer's this country is toast.

    Nope - at the moment I think Remain will have to take its case to the barricades.
    mathsmutt and florian gassmann like this.
  11. FrankWolley

    FrankWolley Star commenter

    The 'nuclear' option for Remain supporting Tory MPs (& those who can/will only countenance a 'soft' Brexit) if a hard line Brexiteer PM) will be to join with Labour/Lib Dems etc just before a 'No Deal' occurs and force a GE, which almost certainly would lead to an extension after 32/10/2019...and quite possibly the destruction of the Tories...
  12. LondonCanary

    LondonCanary Star commenter

    And then?
    The next government present the (amended?) withdrawal bill.
    Groudhog day again.
    Burndenpark likes this.
  13. FrankWolley

    FrankWolley Star commenter

    Depends on the result of the GE, of course. All options (2nd Ref, No Deal Brexit, Revoke article 50, a re-vamped 'soft' Brexit deal etc) - any one could occur depending on the GE results...
  14. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    The last clause above being the reason why those Tories will not go down that route. Turkeys voting for Christmas would have little appeal to them.
  15. lexus300

    lexus300 Star commenter

    They already have this now, so why would we use it to get back in?
  16. lexus300

    lexus300 Star commenter

    Plenty of countries that would love to replace the EU imports. More than likely at lower cost.
  17. LondonCanary

    LondonCanary Star commenter

    Labour and Conservative are committed to leaving. I don't see u-turn as likely by either side.
  18. FrankWolley

    FrankWolley Star commenter

    I don't think that's actually true...certainly not as far as a significant number of MPs in each party are concerned and definitely not a 'No Deal' Brexit.
  19. dleaf12

    dleaf12 Lead commenter

    Bye Bye TM - she's just annouced resignation on 7th June....

    Leadership process starts then. Stays as caretaker until its done.

    Now what....
  20. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    It is according to the manifestos on which both parties were elected.

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