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So what now for Brexit?

Discussion in 'Personal' started by dumpty, Dec 13, 2018.

  1. bombaysapphire

    bombaysapphire Star commenter

    Oh I hope so.
    sodalime likes this.
  2. sodalime

    sodalime Lead commenter

    She knows how to play her own party better than anyone? ;)
    dumpty likes this.
  3. sodalime

    sodalime Lead commenter

    I doubt the SNP, maybe the lib dems.

    It's going to get voted down regardless . . . mind you in saying that, things change on a daily basis, so perhaps by the 21st January (? is that the correct timescale?) the landscape, as we know it, will have changed somewhat and we will be 'looking at' a different array of potential options.
    dumpty likes this.
  4. Duke of York

    Duke of York Star commenter

    There is only one potential option that will resolve matters, as every MP knows. A second referendum.

    Prior to the referendum, the vast majority of MPs were opting for remain. Nothing has been put on the table to alter their opinion that leaving is a bad idea, it's just the absurd notion that they need to take onboard the "will of the people" from a corruptly funded and influenced referendum, that was patently full of lies.

    MPs have the power to decide that the best deal May has been able to get will leave the UK in a worse position and vote to cancel Brexit, but that puts those in leave constituencies in a difficult position.

    The outcome of a second referendum as opinion polls say at the moment, is that the outcome would be for a remain vote, and quite rightly so, because the public are a bit better educated than they were in 2016. It wouldn't take a lot of positive campaigning to remain to ensure the public is better informed why their interests are best served by continuing to be part of the EU.

    Then once our government has the assurance that cancelling article 50 has the backing of the people, it's all over, apart from locking the traitors in stocks outside the Houses of Parliament so the public can pelt them with whatever perishable goods have been stockpiled in preparation for Brexit.
  5. Photo51

    Photo51 Established commenter

    It's too late. It can't happen all happen before 29/03.
    Sir_Henry likes this.
  6. irs1054

    irs1054 Star commenter

    I don't think this will work if it cuts across the original agreement. The problem is that it would be a "foot in the door" and the then very real danger that Parliament could produce a vote to re-negotiate. The EU recognise this. Most likely will be a vague combination of words which May will then try to talk up.

    Actually yes I can for the very simple reason that back in 2016 "leave" was not specifically defined. The whole point of the backstop is that, like insurance, it will never be needed. I think an assurance that the EU will continue to negotiate is about the best we will get with this.

    But the basic point is that brexit was always going to be something like this (give or take minor details) and could never have been anything significantly different. The brexit-nutters fantasy was always that, a complete fantasy that could only exist on another planet. If you voted leave then, basically, this is what you voted for.

    I take the same view of anything that JRM says in the same way I would take an assurance from an alligator that it wasn't going to bite my leg off.

    Even if he got the assurance there would most likely be an "Ahhh but" moment in the offing.

    I am afraid you are deluding yourself if you think these people are: a) rational and b) honourable.
  7. dumpty

    dumpty Star commenter

    Aside from forecasts on the result, the main issue is there will not be a majority vote for 2nd referendum. The Tories will not vote for it as it will forever label them as incompetent and there are quite a few Labour MPs against ordering the public to vote correctly.

    And of course, no-one seems to agree on the questions for the ballot.

    May seems to be putting immense pressure on MPs to accept her deal as the vote will be just 8 or so weeks before no deal legally kicks in.

    I cannot know of course but I do get the feeling she will be successful. The Tories do not want a GE or 2nd referendum and will not allow us to leave on WTO terms.

    May's deal it will be.

    (Man, I am arguing the same case May does herself.......)
  8. oldsomeman

    oldsomeman Star commenter

    I doubt a second referendum will sort it. Even it Brexitiers voted in a larger number remainers will still not accept it.IF the remainers win will that be the end? I doubt it, as the leavers will then go on the campaign trail. They have to power to change a government, If indeed they see it as betrayal I might even believe new party might arise with a view to outing all those who opposed leaving. Time will tell if politicians have the guts to believe what folks vote of, or just to look after number one and their place in Parliment.
    T34 likes this.
  9. Duke of York

    Duke of York Star commenter

    According to Oldsomeman, "Impossible is a word to be found only in the dictionary of fools."

    Of course it isn't too late.

    Do you think they haven't already had that branded indelibly into their foreheads.

    I can't say who will form the next government, but I bet you a penny to a pound, it won't be the Conservatives after this fiasco.
    Ivartheboneless likes this.
  10. Photo51

    Photo51 Established commenter

    How long would it take to pass legislation, agree the question, hold an advisory referendum and pass legislation the HoC. 3 months seems unlikely.
    Sir_Henry likes this.
  11. Duke of York

    Duke of York Star commenter

    That's democracy in action for you.

    Indeed it might have been if it hadn't been politically expedient to railroad the referendum through before such a momentous decision had to be made.

    It isn't just the politicians and newspapers who are to blame for making out it would all be so simple to leave the EU, it's people who blindly voted without understanding sod all about what it would mean.

    Put your hand up and admit you didn't consider how the NI border might be a sticking point when you voted, @oldsomeman. You can keep it up if you like, when I ask you if you ever understood the extent that scientific and technical collaboration across all EU nations enabled a synergy that not a single nation could aspire to alone.

    Brexit is just a belief as vain and unfounded as religion. I can't for the life of me wonder why they don't have a referendum on whether we believe in God; and if it turns out that most people don't, we knock down every church, burn every bible and incarcerate everyone who ever mentions religion. How would that suit you?

    It's the sort of scenario you could get at some point in an EU-free Britain, and if you don't believe me, you ought to have some history lessons.
  12. sodalime

    sodalime Lead commenter

    Yip.Why can't they just be honest and say 'we must deliver Brexit for the 36% of the people who voted for it'.
  13. JosieWhitehead

    JosieWhitehead Star commenter

    It was voted 'leave' by such a narrow majority and I feel that none of us knew exactly what it would entail. We had no idea at all that all this would be happening, but inside me, right now, I just have this gut feeling that we are heading in the wrong direction - but I am not alone in feeling this way. However, we small people can only live and hope, and I'm glad that I don't have a job that is resting in the balance of all of this, but many people will have.
    1 person likes this.
  14. SirPurrAlot

    SirPurrAlot Established commenter

    For the same reason that they can’t say we must deliver Brexit as only 35% of the people wanted to remain in the EU. :D
  15. sparkleghirl

    sparkleghirl Star commenter

    And once it starts, we will already be 'out' so no matter how badly the talks go and how poor the deals we get, there would be no going back. Once we begin that, we are really not in charge of our own destiny any more.
    Burndenpark likes this.
  16. Stiltskin

    Stiltskin Star commenter

    The snap election was done in less than two months. So possible, and the question doesn't need much thinking. It will probably boil down to:

    Do you think that the uK should:
    Leave Europe with no deal?.
    Cancel Article 50? / Cancel Article 50 and review our membership in X years?

    As that'll be the only options left then.
    Burndenpark and chelsea2 like this.
  17. Stiltskin

    Stiltskin Star commenter

    Exactly, and I can't see how we'll get 'better' deals. The EU has 40ish free trade deals, Japan being the latest, which we immediately lose. We may negotiate the same deals with those countries. Possibly we'd get a few on better term deals, but if we did the 'most favoured nation; clauses in the EU deals would kick in and they'd get the same deal. So best case we'd end up no better than the EU. More likely we'd end up worse off.
    Burndenpark and chelsea2 like this.
  18. Photo51

    Photo51 Established commenter

    The snap election didnt require an act of Parliament to be passed to make it happen..
  19. Photo51

    Photo51 Established commenter

    AFAIK most favoured nation only applies when trading under WTO.
  20. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    No its not, because a referendum - unlike a snap election - needs an act of parliament, and the process is controlled by the Electoral Commission, who have to consult on (and road test) the proposed question and who say that once the legislation is passed (likely to take 3 months) there needs to be a gap of 6 months before the actual poll.

    If parliament can agree quickly on the question to ask (which seems unlikely), September is the earliest for another referendum (and even that has problems in clashing with the party conference season). A further delay of that length would be ruinous for UK firms - not that anyone seems to care much about business and jobs anymore.

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