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So what now for Brexit?

Discussion in 'Personal' started by dumpty, Dec 13, 2018.

  1. MAGAorMIGA

    MAGAorMIGA Star commenter

    Electoral Calculus predicted a Tory majority of 10 yesterday, 20 today. Another poll showing Labour on 36% though- their campaign has really cut through and is making headway.
     
    dumpty likes this.
  2. MrMedia

    MrMedia Star commenter

    It’s always been Johnson's to lose. The thing is, he’s fallen into the May trap - safe stuff rather than bold stuff. His 'bold' is to do Brexit, but that is something over 50% don’t want. He needed to offer other bold stuff to offset the tactical voter. All he’s offering is more Brexity stuff: immigration rules, free ports, and so forth. None of which your remainer wants.

    The tactical voting is interesting. Find me a remain voter who isn’t voting tactically. I can’t find one amongst my friends and being a uni bod and former teacher I’m wall to wall with remainers - all are saying they are voting merely for the nearest challenger to the Tory candidate.

    And they are smelling a new Portillo moment: Johnson's seat itself. What could be better for remain than no Tory majority and their leading man and his snide side man to be removed from the corridors of power.

    It’s Johnson's to lose and he could well get his majority, but Brexit has proved harder to deliver than it was ever promised back in the days of milk, honey and 'the easiest deal we will ever make'.
     
    schoolsout4summer likes this.
  3. ajrowing

    ajrowing Lead commenter

    Has he been campaigning, or is what he has done well to avoid actually doing anything?
    He is certainly strong and stable.
     
    sodalime likes this.
  4. MrMedia

    MrMedia Star commenter

    He’s done great stuff. He’s ducked Neil, he’s ducked Etchingham, he’s ducked the hustings at his own constituency, he’s ducked publishing the report into Russian interference, he’s ducked getting that woman freed from Iran, he’s made sure Reese Mogg is also ducking. I’m telling you, the man is a total ducker. Indeed his whole life he’s been a ducker if you think about it and he’s going to reap this campaign by ducking being PM when he loses his seat.
     
  5. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    Doesn't look likely. The YouGov MRP constituency estimate for Uxbridge and South Ruislip puts Johnson on 50% and his nearest rival (the Labour candidate) on only 37%. This is the poll that correctly forecast 93% of seats in the 2017 election.
     
    sodalime, install and Kandahar like this.
  6. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    The average tory lead in the four polls out today is 11 points, but Opinium for the Observor has got them continuing with a 15 point lead (same as 27th Nov) which, I think, is likely to give them a very substantial overall majority (certainly greater than 20). The last-minute surge towards Labour seen in 2017 doesn't seem to be happening this time.

    upload_2019-12-8_7-28-2.png
     
    Kandahar likes this.
  7. peakster

    peakster Star commenter

    Unfortunately he is likely to win - and then we will have Brexit (or at least the first bit of it) and then we'll see.

    Judging by his previous track record - if it doesn't work out he won't be around for too long.

    Trusting something so important to such an inadequate human being is a a recipe for disaster.
     
    sodalime likes this.
  8. Kandahar

    Kandahar Star commenter

    Imagine the alternative...Corbyn.
     
    border_walker likes this.
  9. MrMedia

    MrMedia Star commenter

    Corbyn isn’t the alternative. There’s no chance of that. At best is a Corbyn led minority government who can’t pass legislation other than a second referendum.
     
    sodalime likes this.
  10. dumpty

    dumpty Star commenter

    I think in that case they would much rather support Corbyn's remain v remain package put to the people as opposed to another leave v remain vote, as what to do if we again vote leave???
     
    sodalime and Kandahar like this.
  11. dumpty

    dumpty Star commenter

     
    sodalime likes this.
  12. sodalime

    sodalime Star commenter

    Brexit Actually . . .wonder if Demonic Cummings is the mastermind behind this. It's very very clever and will appeal to a lot of people.
     
    dumpty likes this.
  13. CraigCarterSmith

    CraigCarterSmith Established commenter

    yep will appeal to loads, its wishy washy factless nonsense for the innane and people bloody love that :rolleyes:

    I mean they'd sell their grand kids to Epstein if they got the Brexit they wanted (though they wont tell you what that actually is) :D

    although tbf great idea to steal the scene in which the guy is having it off with another mans wife, genius
     
    MAGAorMIGA, ajrowing and sodalime like this.
  14. alex_teccy

    alex_teccy Star commenter

    They’re a funny old lot, remainers. They tell us that Brexit would be a disaster for the economy and how bad it would be for trade, but now they want us to vote for a party who have no plans to expand trade and would get us billions into debt.
     
    install and border_walker like this.
  15. MrMedia

    MrMedia Star commenter

    No, we vote for no party. Corbyn is not getting into power. What we want is a hung parliament, a second ref, vote to remain and a return to being able to vote for the party whose policies best convince us. Without Brexit, without Johnson, a moderate compassionate Tory could convince a remainer to vote for them just as much as a Starmer led Labour Party could. Brexit has ruined democracy.
     
    smoothnewt and sodalime like this.
  16. sodalime

    sodalime Star commenter

    :D You forgot to mention the C word ;) Lots of older people in particular, will remember this film well, oh, the romance, and at Christmas too - they'll buy into it, no probs!
     
  17. sodalime

    sodalime Star commenter

    It's given it a huge nudge further along the road of ruination. The next stop doesn't look appealing.
     
  18. sodalime

    sodalime Star commenter

    Yes. And it sexualises Brexit. A hard one to do :p;)
     
  19. alex_teccy

    alex_teccy Star commenter

    Again, you complain about the turmoil Brexit would bring etc, yet you would inflict further misery on our beloved nation with another hung Parliament?
     
    install likes this.
  20. alex_teccy

    alex_teccy Star commenter

    Oh. We're hitting "Ed-stone" levels of cringe now.
     
    install and dumpty like this.

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