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Discussion in 'Personal' started by dumpty, Dec 13, 2018.
I really hope you are right, sadly where I live the odious MP is likely to be re-elected.
Are these polls a bit like stockbrokers? Just because they got lucky with their guess last time, does it make it more likely they will be next time?
No, the YouGove MRP poll is higly regarded because it is on a very much larger scale than any similar poll (a sample of approximately 100,000 rather than the typical 1,000) allowing the pollsters to drill down to individual constituency level rather than having to make assumptions based on nationwide trends.
In 2017, the same model correctly predicted 93% of individual seats as well as the overall hung parliament result.
Rumours circulating that the EU is thinking Trump with regards to the FTA. That is, do it in stages. They are apparently working behind the scenes now to ensure we do indeed have a large stage 1 FTA for December, which will cover most areas but leave doors ajar to adjustments and changes.
This then gives both the EU and Boris a save face way of extending as it will be sold as'the main deal is agreed, now we just polish the borders....won't take long'.
It sounds similar to the shenanigans of the WA - we were told repeatedly on this forum (probably on this thread) that over 90% of the issues had been agreed very early on.......then look how long it took to agree the final few %....only for it to be rejected & revised, with the new WA still in limbo....over 3 years and counting.
And remember, the original WA was planned to be the can kicking until such a time we can get another referendum in place. And until that second referendum happens, over half the country will not cease their efforts. So, be aware, whatever Brexit you might get won’t actually last for very long. And that’s if you get it in the first place. And I very much doubt the Brexit you might get is the Brexit you wanted. You have been warned.
I really cannot see there ever being a second referendum
If Johnson doesn’t get a majority then it happens this time. If the next GE doesn’t offer a majority conservative Parliament it will happen. I see either this one or the next one (Starmer on a sensible manifesto would sweep home) as a non conservative majority.
Tend to agree Brexit will be sacrificed if Boris does not get a majority but hey ho, that be democracy.
I think it will be more a super soft remain is agreed than a referendum as there is always the chance we vote incorrectly again. A BRINO and then referendum when we are beaten into submission in a few years time.
Of course I do likewise hope that if Boris does get a majority and he does go for Brexit, that - finally - it can and will be accepted by all.
I am still going for a Boris win by 10-20 seats
We agree I’m sure. I always said they should have taken the momentum, bashed through a BRINO e.g. Norway +. And from there they could chip away at poor man's FTA to their heart's delight. All the benefits of being in the EU without the say. That’s pretty much what the referendum voted for. I’d take a Norway +. I want remain, but you know, remain by any other name...
Which is why you and I (and others from here I expect) will be up all night watching the results come in.
Every time you think there could not be a more important vote on Brexit, another comes along
Boris by 10 - get in
there's no such thing as BRINO
Oh yes there is.
An Algerian biscuit.
Clearly we live in the same constituency.
Ya gotta help me with an update folks - reading 'China Daily' did not help as there was not one word on Brexit at all. Some worrying articles on the 'bad people in Hong Kong' though....
Lots of censorship and lousy internet so I cannot access freely. I am getting the impression Boris is still well ahead in the polls (10 points) and that he is still running from Andrew Neil?
I am told I will be able to get a SKY news feed on the night of the results. At least that is something.
You might as well put a piece of grass in the air and guess which way it blows @dumpty - it remains Johnson's to lose. It comes down to whether you believe the polls have it accurate or whether you think the tactical voting will be enough to turn the tide in enough seats to deprive him of a majority. I’ve also seen some modelling on new voter registrations for 2019. 9 million voter registrations, of which 6m are seen as genuine new voters. There’s also been 2m deaths since 2017 and 2m people become voters. It’s enough to put some smoke over the polls to the point where Johnson needs a double digit lead to romp home. And right now he has that. But if it drops under 10% there’s an Anthony Joshua fight to be had.
It looks gloomy for the Remain camp. Bright for the Brexit camp. A horror show for democracy (p.48 of the Tory manifesto is chillingly similar to Weimar Article 48). And Johnson doesn’t want to face Andrew Neil on television. Will that harm him or help him? We will see after tonight.
Buy yourself a shortwave radio. Better than Internet and uncensored ...unless jammed by China.
Well, Gina Miller (subjective bias alert) commissioned a poll (methodology alert) which shows that without tactical voting the tories have a 12 seat lead.
But, if people vote tactically they predict labour 250, SNP 51, Liberals 15.
Yep, majority territory. Tories would be 312.
Guess which feisty minority ‘border in the Irish Sea over my dead body' ten seat party would hold the balance of power?
Well, let’s all be honest @dumpty's thread followers, that is pretty much what we we have come to expect from Brexit. Someone pass the popcorn.
No - we must have Brexit
The 17.4 million people who keep banging on about have to see what they voted for.
Is Miller still saying her entire work is not about stopping Brexit or getting a remain?
Otherwise yes, I am starting to get a little nervous as it appears the polls are talking about a ten point gap but that could not be as solid and meaningful on the night.Boris has done well though as a campaigner, you can feel the massive difference between his efforts and the efforts of May.
Roll on Thursday.