The timing of the report is political, not academic, coinciding with various other attempts to influence a vote on the WA. There’s no credible data to make sensible forecasts or baselines. Economic forecasting is notoriously unreliable especially when it comes to Brexit, and when the Remainer credentials of the author Prof. Annand are well established. To elaborate.The EU makes use of its own economic modelling when it comes to making trade deals. Lars Nilsson an economist working for the EU recently published a paper where he points out the pitfalls in the area from lack of data. Quote: The impact of a trade policy shock cannot be evaluated without a baseline i.e. the counterfactual situation in which the economy would have been should there have been no trade policy change. Creating a realistic baseline is as difficult as it is important. The Commission usually relies upon predictions about the future by others, such as short term projections on GDP growth from the IMF and longer term projections on e.g. population from the UN, but also on energy consumption, labour participation rates, etc.27 In other words, the first task of economic modelling is to produce a 'baseline' of what would happen if there were no change or no FTA. The Annand report doesn’t even begin to make a credible baseline for its forecast, because it is not even remotely possible. The EU doesn't know where it's going with its own trade deals, with its plans for the Euro, its tax plans for the next EU 7-Year Budget, still less do we know the effects of a multi-trillion Green New Deal. The EU doesn't even know how it's going to resolve its trade dispute with the US. It’s not fake news. The EU is a project which was supposed to provide economic prosperity and security for all its members and its role in their prosperity is far from moot. Currently we have a situation where Germany racks up a huge trade surplus, at the same time as debt as a percentage of GDP has ballooned in the eurozone, increasing from 58.5% in 2000 to 74.4% in 2010 The Euro in particular was supposed to have been universally uplifting of Europe, giving the EU the chance to rival the US and China. Instead it has locked in currency distortion, giving Germany advantages as the expense of other members. QE keeps the Euro cheap compared to other currencies which has kept German exports competitive, much to the anger of the Americans. https://www.forbes.com/sites/milton...man-swindle-built-into-the-euro/#24367a2f27da But as you say, the currencies of weaker economies, Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy were overvalued in order to join the Euro- as individual currencies the situation would have righted itself through depreciation. The euro has locked in this distortion and prevents currencies from devaluing and making exports competitive. Going forward with the spanish example (you were correct about youth unemployment, it was at 56% in 2013) the Maastricht Treaty the EU sets the macroeconomic and employment policy of member nations. In 2018 for example the EU directed Spain to adopt more open ended contracts to get young people out of part time contracts. They need to do this because Labour costs in Spain, as in elsewhere with members with low productivity, are too high. It'sinteresting to read opinions of posters of this thread who are convinced that the EU is a workers paradise whereas they can choose any number of CSRs from the European Commission advocating 'flexible labour' policies and 'open contracts'. They could look at the Benefit Freeze in the 2013 CSR that advocated limits on social payments 'to make work pay'. They might note that the introduction of Universal Credit in the UK is mirrored in Spain with their adoption of a Universal Benefit Card. Governments can pass all the labour laws they want but if the end-product doesn't increase the amount of trade from paying customers, the effort is worthless. We have an example right now with Venezuela, a country rice in oil and bathed in tropical sun to grow food and rich in all manner of natural resources. Yet it has been reduced to shortages, penury, and a million per-cent inflation, by the socialist intents of its rulers. The EU understands that wealth comes from trade and that it desperately needs wealth to pay of the debts of its member nations. This brings us to one of the greatest ironies of Brexit - that the EU is trying to “Brexit” from its own customs union by trying to make trade deals with other nations. However vested interests keep these deals as paper-tigers, with only the South Korean deal fully ratified. Even this deal is now problematical as the EU grapples with its decision to make an imperial-like intervention into SK Labour law, when the treaty was made. The bottom line is, remainers, as in your report, insist that we’d be better of in the EU, but cannot predict what the EU will look like in 5, 10 or 20 years, or if the Euro or even the EU will be around. Yet we know what it looks like right now, and it’s not good. We might experience plodding growth and prosperity in the EU but I think we’re better off blazing a trail out of it.