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So what now for Brexit?

Discussion in 'Personal' started by dumpty, Dec 13, 2018.

  1. alex_teccy

    alex_teccy Lead commenter

    The timing of the report is political, not academic, coinciding with various other attempts to influence a vote on the WA. There’s no credible data to make sensible forecasts or baselines. Economic forecasting is notoriously unreliable especially when it comes to Brexit, and when the Remainer credentials of the author Prof. Annand are well established.

    To elaborate.The EU makes use of its own economic modelling when it comes to making trade deals. Lars Nilsson an economist working for the EU recently published a paper where he points out the pitfalls in the area from lack of data. Quote:

    The impact of a trade policy shock cannot be evaluated without a baseline i.e. the counterfactual situation in which the economy would have been should there have been no trade policy change. Creating a realistic baseline is as difficult as it is important. The Commission usually relies upon predictions about the future by others, such as short term projections on GDP growth from the IMF and longer term projections on e.g. population from the UN, but also on energy consumption, labour participation rates, etc.27​

    In other words, the first task of economic modelling is to produce a 'baseline' of what would happen if there were no change or no FTA. The Annand report doesn’t even begin to make a credible baseline for its forecast, because it is not even remotely possible. The EU doesn't know where it's going with its own trade deals, with its plans for the Euro, its tax plans for the next EU 7-Year Budget, still less do we know the effects of a multi-trillion Green New Deal. The EU doesn't even know how it's going to resolve its trade dispute with the US.

    It’s not fake news. The EU is a project which was supposed to provide economic prosperity and security for all its members and its role in their prosperity is far from moot. Currently we have a situation where Germany racks up a huge trade surplus, at the same time as debt as a percentage of GDP has ballooned in the eurozone, increasing from 58.5% in 2000 to 74.4% in 2010 The Euro in particular was supposed to have been universally uplifting of Europe, giving the EU the chance to rival the US and China. Instead it has locked in currency distortion, giving Germany advantages as the expense of other members. QE keeps the Euro cheap compared to other currencies which has kept German exports competitive, much to the anger of the Americans.


    But as you say, the currencies of weaker economies, Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy were overvalued in order to join the Euro- as individual currencies the situation would have righted itself through depreciation. The euro has locked in this distortion and prevents currencies from devaluing and making exports competitive. Going forward with the spanish example (you were correct about youth unemployment, it was at 56% in 2013) the Maastricht Treaty the EU sets the macroeconomic and employment policy of member nations. In 2018 for example the EU directed Spain to adopt more open ended contracts to get young people out of part time contracts. They need to do this because Labour costs in Spain, as in elsewhere with members with low productivity, are too high. It'sinteresting to read opinions of posters of this thread who are convinced that the EU is a workers paradise whereas they can choose any number of CSRs from the European Commission advocating 'flexible labour' policies and 'open contracts'. They could look at the Benefit Freeze in the 2013 CSR that advocated limits on social payments 'to make work pay'. They might note that the introduction of Universal Credit in the UK is mirrored in Spain with their adoption of a Universal Benefit Card.

    Governments can pass all the labour laws they want but if the end-product doesn't increase the amount of trade from paying customers, the effort is worthless. We have an example right now with Venezuela, a country rice in oil and bathed in tropical sun to grow food and rich in all manner of natural resources. Yet it has been reduced to shortages, penury, and a million per-cent inflation, by the socialist intents of its rulers.

    The EU understands that wealth comes from trade and that it desperately needs wealth to pay of the debts of its member nations. This brings us to one of the greatest ironies of Brexit - that the EU is trying to “Brexit” from its own customs union by trying to make trade deals with other nations. However vested interests keep these deals as paper-tigers, with only the South Korean deal fully ratified. Even this deal is now problematical as the EU grapples with its decision to make an imperial-like intervention into SK Labour law, when the treaty was made.

    The bottom line is, remainers, as in your report, insist that we’d be better of in the EU, but cannot predict what the EU will look like in 5, 10 or 20 years, or if the Euro or even the EU will be around. Yet we know what it looks like right now, and it’s not good. We might experience plodding growth and prosperity in the EU but I think we’re better off blazing a trail out of it.
    border_walker likes this.
  2. alex_teccy

    alex_teccy Lead commenter

    Bien Sur. I asked one to draw a map for me this is what he came up with
  3. moscowbore

    moscowbore Star commenter

    The norm in the USA is 10 days holiday per year. It is common for employers to only offer "at will" employment where the employer can simply tell an employee that they are no longer required. No reasons, no notice, no redundancy payments , boom.
    I do not want anything like this situation to appear in the UK. That is why I , and many others, are so suspicious about the workers rights words being moved from the legally binding agreement to the non-legally binding political declaration.
    bojo and Raab were both asked about this and both refused to give a reason.
    I am also a wee bit tired of hearing that unemployment is at an all time low. Zero-hours contracts and minimum wage employment which has to be supplemented by the state to allow families to feed themselves, are forms of employment which are morally corrupt despite being legal. A strong economy would make these forms of employment unattractive but we do not have a strong economy.
  4. Rott Weiler

    Rott Weiler Star commenter Forum guide

    Yes, that's what he said. Organisations like LEAVE.EU and HMG :)
    monicabilongame likes this.
  5. Burndenpark

    Burndenpark Star commenter

    The referendum was 3 years ago not now. The referendum & leaders of Leave THEN should have made clear what sort of Leave was desired. When they did- it was something like Norway - so anything dramatically diferent from that should not be seriously considered.

    That's for a GE- with other factors involved, such as keeping Corbyn and the "Socialists" out of number 10, and quite possibly with a result even less clearly defined than the last one was.

    The only sensible way to resolve this is through another referendum. Why is it that you fear one of those?

    I'll remind you again- 1 in 3 Labour voters supported leave 2 in 3 supported remain. He's not listening to his party- he's listening to his gut- and his gut is part of a poorly qualfed old man- i.e. a steriotypical Brexit voter.
    monicabilongame likes this.
  6. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    Leave.EU is not an acronym, but TES is :D
    border_walker likes this.
  7. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    As I said, the EU can enforce things that are promised in a trade agreement. If you really care about workers rights and don't trust the UK government to maintain them, your best bet is to see them nailed into a trade agreement through which firms will suffer if the EU perceives them to not be maintaining such rights.
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2019
  8. FrankWolley

    FrankWolley Star commenter

    Brexit supporters would do well to read this, and reflect on it:

    Dr Phil Hammond@drphilhammond

    1214 days after the EU referendum & public are still being conned that Brexit can be ‘done’ soon. As Lord Cooper, founder of Populus, observes ‘When focus groups are told that Brexit triggers a longer phase of talks and trade negotiations, the response is often horrified silence’
    chelsea2 and sodalime like this.
  9. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    This would be the Phil Hammond who was sacked from the BBC for using its airwaves to launch a campaign to topple Jacob Rees-Mogg, I take it?
    border_walker likes this.
  10. Burndenpark

    Burndenpark Star commenter

    Ah- I see, let me help.
    relating to a large city:
    the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York
    He was drawn to the metropolitan glamour and excitement of Paris.
    a metropolitan area

    of, noting, or characteristic of a metropolis or its inhabitants, especially in culture, sophistication, or in accepting and combining a wide variety of people, ideas, etc.
    of or relating to a large city, its surrounding suburbs, and other neighboring communities: the New York metropolitan area.

    And since you probably don't know what a metropolis either:
    noun, plural me·trop·o·lis·es.
    any large, busy city.
    the chief, and sometimes capital, city of a country, state, or region.
    a central or principal place, as of some activity: the music metropolis of France.
    the mother city or parent state of a colony, especially of an ancient Greek colony.
    the chief see of an ecclesiastical province.

    So, Yes people living in London are metropolitan, as are those in Reading, Bristol, Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds, Glasgow, Belfast and many other places in the UK- so many of them that those who are classed as metropolitan outnumber those who aren't.

    Now remembering this would you argue that Labour are voted for, mostly, by people who aren't metropolitan?

    While you're here have you decided how to explain your implication that people who are metropolitan aren't decent?

    Oh and before I forget- what EU red tape is it that limits business and that you'd like to see removed?
  11. Rott Weiler

    Rott Weiler Star commenter Forum guide

    My dear old mum always said that pedantry makes you go blind (I think that's what it was) :)
  12. Crowbob

    Crowbob Lead commenter

    A trade agreement is between countries. What REMEDY will the INDIVIDUAL have if the rights 'nailed into a trade agreement' are violated?
    Currently we have the concept of direct effect. We won't in a trade agreement. This is a huge gap in the protection of rights (even if we CAN get them nailed into a trade agreement...).
  13. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    No worse than if they were nailed into the withdrawal agreement.
  14. moscowbore

    moscowbore Star commenter

    And who would be seeking to nail these things into a trade agreement? bojo? Gove? Raab?

    I thought that Keir Starmer gave a measured breakdown of his fears over workers rights on Marr. The fact that later in the same program Raab refused to say why everything relating to workers rights had been removed from the agreement, reworded and then placed in the unbinding political agreement made me shiver.

    Agreeing to the divorce is just the beginning of the real negotiations. I keep hearing about getting Brexit, " done and dusted". No-one is really looking at the political agreement which describes the future direction of the relationship with the eu and that worries me.

    Fundamentally I do not trust bojo et al. They will set and follow their own agendas. You will not find, "Must make sure uk workers' rights are as good as the eu", anywhere on their agenda.
  15. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    The EU. Just as they have done with previous trade agreements. EU trade agreements depend on the "level playing field" concept, and that includes workers' rights, social rights and environmental protection. It is quite simple. If those rights are not preserved in the UK, there will be no deal - no deal in the deal that really matters, which is not the withdrawal agreement but the subsequent trade agreeement.
    border_walker and alex_teccy like this.
  16. eljefeb90

    eljefeb90 Senior commenter

    Thanks, @alex_teccy for your considered reply. If you think that I consider the EU to be perfect, you would be wrong. I was personally against joining the Euro and thought it unwise for the Mediterranean bloc to leap into it. The EU is subject to the political bent of its most influential members and provides only a kind of floor-level legislation so members are not tempted to race to the bottom. I personally found Professor Annan balanced and persuasive and he backed up his assertions with convincing evidence when challenged by convinced advocates of leaving the CU and the SM. Have you not noticed that the vast majority of the political spectrum from Left , through Centre to moderate Right were all Remainers. Leave was the brainchild of the neo liberal Right, the nationalist Right/ extreme Right and some on the far Left have supported it as it aligns with their instincts to create disruption within the capitalist system. To dismiss academics as 'remainers' is to dismiss at least 95% of academic opinion.

    I am particularly concerned by statements about 'blazing a trail'. What does that mean? It sounds to many of us as if you do not accept the (very basic) workers' rights guaranteed by the EU and want to try to further depress wages and rights of ordinary people.
    'Blazing a trail' will also mean massive dislocation for pan European, highly integrated and regulated sectors like motor manufacturing, chemicals, pharmaceutical s, aerospace and food and drink. Our largest market is on our doorstep;proximity is the number one factor in trade. It is simply foolish to seek to disadvantage ourselves by putting up impediments to trade where none existed before...All for meaningless sound bites like 'blazing a trail'.
    dleaf12 and chelsea2 like this.
  17. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    The Withdrawal Agreement states:

    To that end, the Parties should uphold the common high standards applicable in the Union and the United Kingdom at the end of the transition period in the areas of state aid, competition, social and employment standards, environment, climate change, and relevant tax matters.​

    As I said, it is easier for the EU to ensure that this level playing field is maintained through the ongoing process of a trade agreement, rather than the static process of a one-time withdrawal agreement.
    alex_teccy likes this.
  18. FrankWolley

    FrankWolley Star commenter

    The Phil Hammond who decided to stand for Parliament in JR-M's constituency in 2018 when the next election took place- as is anyone's democratic right. BBC Bristol decided he couldn't continue to broadcast.

    See here: http://www.drphilhammond.com/blog/2...hil-hammond-after-his-dismissal-from-the-bbc/

    Not quite how you present it! (Not for the first time...)
  19. alex_teccy

    alex_teccy Lead commenter

    Well done you can use a dictionary.
  20. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    And nor did you present the fact that he was a political candidate standing against Rees-Mogg, which is why I pointed it out.

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