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So what now for Brexit?

Discussion in 'Personal' started by dumpty, Dec 13, 2018.

  1. dumpty

    dumpty Lead commenter

    After May's win, I say the following:

    If she gets clear legal amendments that time limit the backstop her deal will fly through the HoC and everyone is....kinda half happy.

    If she gets told to go away by the EU, her deal will get voted down but I do not think massively. She will run the clock down to make it very much her deal or no deal.*

    Then we need to watch Labour. They are not calling the no confidence vote now as they then have (half) promised to back a 2nd referendum if the confidence vote loses (and it will, they know that) and Corbyn knows this could well be Labour's time to have civil war.

    Which is why I am tending to think May's deal will get through eventually.....but it has to have the DUP on side so I guess the backstop the EU has refused to tinker with must be tinkered with....or else.

    Glad I cleared that up :p

    * Just heard May has confirmed she is not going to put her deal before parliament this month.
     
  2. burajda

    burajda Star commenter

    Well that seems to be where the massively divided country could be. There's no real appetite for status quo EU membership or the buccaneering Singapore of Europe. Both sides need to recognise they're never going to get what they want.
     
    monicabilongame likes this.
  3. dumpty

    dumpty Lead commenter

    Agree, tend to think the fact May has a concrete deal to offer is going to carry it. Even as a leave voter I was not wanting A.50 to be extended under a new leader and the whole thing keep dragging on and on.

    Everyone is slowly getting beaten into submission.

    Although of course, many of us forget (as do I from time to time) this is not the final deal, it is simply the withdrawal deal so we become a third nation and then able to talk the real stuff.

    That part, the most serious of all, has not even started!
     
    monicabilongame likes this.
  4. Geoff Thomas

    Geoff Thomas Star commenter

    Not what the polls are saying.
     
  5. irs1054

    irs1054 Star commenter

    Just been watching the news and this is the one thing she will not get.

    Non-binding assurances yes but changes to the agreement no.

    Problem is that nothing will satisfy the brexit-nutters, they are completely devoid of any reason whatsoever.

    Unfortunately, regardless of anyone else the brexit-nutters occupy a space-time which is devoid of any sort of logic and that include recognition of any "fact" that seems "inconvenient".

    I certainly think that the leadership thing has had the effect of pushing a referendum down the agenda (it was showing the beginnings of an upward trajectory) so we are back to the situation where who knows what will happen.
     
  6. Duke of York

    Duke of York Star commenter

    Indeed. I think in many ways, the desire among the public for a second referendum, with a view to halting Brexit (the only reason to have one) is thanks to Brexiteers keeping the matter under discussion. The more they debate Brexit, the weaker their arguments become; and the more idiotic the politicians who campaigned for Brexit appear. In fact most MPs who spoke out in favour of leaving are now keeping quiet about it.
     
  7. oldsomeman

    oldsomeman Star commenter

    One might point out that it is the remainerswho have done thier best to delay and change the idea.With cooperation a lot of this 'stuff' could have been thrashed out beforehand.Giving the relutance of the EU to even think we might leave this si not seen>I still suspect they want things to drag out so we will .like Ireland found, be persuaded to rejoin.
    I still do not trust politicins to deliver on Brexit .Yet despite all the compainta about her I admire May for her tenacity to seek a comprimise.As i have said before she is the only ywoman with big eneough balls to do the job.The men politicians seem to just to be wanna be leaders. Corbyn is just a figure head in fronof McDonald!
     
    T34 likes this.
  8. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    I don't think that a legally binding assurance needs to involve changing the agreement - it can be a separate document of the sort that Prime Minister Rutte sought for the Netherlands when he refused to sign up to the EU-Ukraine deal as a result of a Dutch referendum revealing that voters didn't want to see it forming a means for Ukraine to join the EU.
     
  9. Ivartheboneless

    Ivartheboneless Star commenter

    Teaching us to suck eggs again?
    If the "deal" or implications as we know them now had been available when the vote was done the result would have been (except for a few diehard loonies) remain. As who in their right mind would vote for something (after eight years of "austerity") that makes them even worse off financially.
     
  10. ilovesooty

    ilovesooty Star commenter

    We can't be persuaded to rejoin something we haven't yet left.

    McDonnell by the way.
     
    MAGAorMIGA likes this.
  11. dumpty

    dumpty Lead commenter

    Ah you cannot argue the present deal where even the AG admits could easily end with us remaining in a permanent CU, has any resemblance whatsoever to Brexit.

    And as far as we can tell, 99% of Labour MPs and remainers hate the deal, too. Even if the Brexiteers, Mogg, Davis and all vote for May's deal she may still get it voted down as Soubry and co do not like it and the DUP can never accept it.

    This is indeed what she is going for and likely to get at the 11th hour. I am certain it will satisfy most Brexiteers but she will still struggle to get the deal through, seeing as Labour just will not vote for anything other than what might lead to an election.
     
    LondonCanary likes this.
  12. nixmith

    nixmith Occasional commenter

    I'm sorry, I don't agree. For example I saw JRM on the TV a couple of times last night, being interviewed after the TM result came through. At one point (I think) he said that if legally, (not just warm words) the backstop or indeed the fact we can't unilaterally pull out of the backstop, was re-negotiated, he would accept it - May's withdrawal agreement.

    I concur.

    If I agree with it and JRM agrees with it, then I don't think you can say: "...nothing will satisfy the brexit-nutters...".
     
    dumpty likes this.
  13. sodalime

    sodalime Lead commenter

    I'm not sure they really want an election any time soon ( they say what they say to news reporters in order to keep pressure on the government). . .because they know fine well that if they won, taking up the Brexit poisoned chalice will reveal them to be almost every bit as divided as the tories on the matter of Brexit.

    People don't want power when the going is tough, people want to claim power once the hard work is done and they can at least have a few years plainer sailing.
     
  14. Stiltskin

    Stiltskin Lead commenter

    What I think will happen. There will be a non-legally binding document about the backstop that will say it'll be temporary. It'll pass through parliament. Nothing will get agreed. We'll enter the backstop and continue to for another 20 or so years as the EU point out that the document was only what they'd like to do but can't because X.Y and Z.

    I think a lot of reasons a deal has taken so long is the idea that we had a stronger negotiating position than the EU, when it should be obvious that the 27 other countries together have more than us.
     
    monicabilongame likes this.
  15. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    For some people, there are things more important than money.
     
  16. sodalime

    sodalime Lead commenter

    Btw, shock horror this morning for me, as i found myself agreeing with what Michael Heseltine had to say on the 'what now for Brexit?' matter . i.e. what he said was that the withdrawal agreement, however 'revised', would be voted down in Ianuary, and the next step would be an extension to A.50 and a 2nd referendum/people's vote.
     
    bombaysapphire and lanokia like this.
  17. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    I really think that is highly unlikely. A number of EU members are already greatly concerned that the UK could use the backstop to secure privileged access to the Single Market with no payments and very few obligations, giving us a competitive advantage - they certainly wouldn't want to put up with that for more than as short a time as possible.
     
  18. lanokia

    lanokia Star commenter

    I'm beginning to think that is how it is going to go...
     
    sodalime likes this.
  19. dumpty

    dumpty Lead commenter

    That is what he hopes for I'm sure. Curiously, one of if not the most vocal voice(s) against a 2nd referendum is the newly 'untouchable' Theresa May.

    And as she promised to quit after Brexit, I get the feeling her life right now, her only mission in life is to deliver some kind of Brexit, and on time.
     
    T34 and sodalime like this.
  20. dumpty

    dumpty Lead commenter

    Possible but she needs a massive amount of the around 100 Brexiteers suddenly to love her deal and if the text is not legally binding the DUP will withdraw support for the government - GE time or Corbyn in power with the SNP, perhaps.

    And politics being politics, many Tory MPs who are remainers and love May's deal will vote against if they think passing it would have the DUP pull out of the government.

    So essentially, the text must be legally binding or it is going to get voted down.
     

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