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Discussion in 'Education news' started by jimm287, Mar 27, 2020.

  1. moscowbore

    moscowbore Star commenter

    Been thinking about this. How can schools open if the borders are still closed?
    In China right now they are closing the border again due to returners bring covid19 with them.
    Schools will only re-open when it is safe to do so. That might be after a vaccine is available.

    The worst is yet to come. USA, India, Africa are all heading for a very scary time in the next month or so. The death figures will be terrifying and this will change the common view that cv19 is no big deal. I agree with grandsire, there will be an inevitable second wave and maybe a third which will see schools close and life return to quarantine rules.

    After reconsideration, I reckon schools will not reopen in 2020.
    Catgirl1964 likes this.
  2. simonCOAL

    simonCOAL Occasional commenter

    That’s not such an extreme prediction now.
  3. caterpillartobutterfly

    caterpillartobutterfly Star commenter

    I agree it isn't an extreme prediction, but I very much hope you are wrong.
    School closures are one of the very few times when working in the independent sector is much more scary than in the state. We are currently concerned about having a school to return to in September. If we can't fully open until January, then we have almost no hope.
    And my school is a long way from being unique in this.
  4. PeterQuint

    PeterQuint Lead commenter

    The government appear to be hinting that coming out of lockdown will be a gradual process, which will happen between 3 and 6 months in, possibly longer, though implicitly not much longer, and any extra time at the end will be under the least-stringent protocols.

    What they haven’t said is the order in which the restrictions will be lifted. So schools could be back as early as 3 months, or as late as 6 months, or a bit longer.

    Based on that, we’ll be going back at the very earliest after Spring Bank (first UK death was 5th March, so 3 months from that is 5th June), or the very latest in September for the new school year...‘or maybe a bit later’.

    If you want to look at the very latest, the government said this on 29th March, so six months from then is the end of September. Add a bit and the latest is after October half term.

    2021 isn’t completely out of the question, but things would have to go substantially worse than the worst current prediction.
  5. moscowbore

    moscowbore Star commenter

    I agree, but, if covid19 has a second wave, as seen with Spanish flu, I would expect a return to quarantine.

    I also wonder what will happen with international borders. With no vaccine for about 18 months, I believe that borders will have to remain shut. That will stagnate the economy for a long time.
    PeterQuint likes this.
  6. Stiltskin

    Stiltskin Star commenter

    I doubt it because of reasons already mentioned here. I am guessing the main peak will have passed by June. That schools will open for a couple of weeks in July. This will allow leavers to have their leaving activities. Also a little assessment done with the classes and to set up some home learning over the summer. Schools will open in September (possibly a week early) as normal with a view that they will be possibly closed again from October half term until January.
  7. PeterQuint

    PeterQuint Lead commenter

    I have little doubt that we’ll see a second wave - in fact I think the government are pretty much counting on it.

    This won’t be over until more or less everyone has had it, they just don’t want us all getting it at once.

    So, when restrictions are lifted, numbers will rise again. The government will hope to keep new numbers relatively steady by tweaking relaxation measures. So they’ll wait for numbers to drop, relax the rules slightly, hope for a mild uptick, be tighten the rules again if the numbers increase too quickly.

    What they don’t want is for the traditional flu season to arrive in October, and half of us still haven’t had it. Because we’d either have to let everyone out and deal with Covid19 and flu at the same time, or continue lockdown until a year from now. Both would be a disaster.

    So they don’t want numbers to be too big to handle, but neither do they want them to be so small that this isn’t largely done by October.

    By the way, ‘lockdown’ as it stands was introduced in the following order:

    March 16th - Government ‘asks’ people to work from home.
    March 17th - Government ‘advises’ people to follow social distancing protocols
    March 18th - Announcement that schools are to close on the 20th
    March 20th - Schools close. Government ‘orders’ pubs and restaurants to close
    March 23rd - The country goes into ‘lockdown’ (if sorts) as Johnson tells people to stay at home for 3 weeks, with certain exceptions
    March 24th - Weddings and baptisms ‘banned’
    March 26th - Police given power of arrest for those breaching the rules

    So, can we expect those rules to be relaxed in reverse order?

    And at what interval(s)?
    agathamorse likes this.
  8. harsh-but-fair

    harsh-but-fair Star commenter

    Here we go ...

    Call for schools to open in the summer after lockdown
    Children’s commissioner says schools will play an important role, but teachers and parents may oppose loss of six-week break

    agathamorse likes this.
  9. Grandsire

    Grandsire Star commenter

    You beat me to it, HBF.

    You know, someone on the Guardian must really hate teachers... This is the second article in a week that promotes re-opening schools without evidence that it is safe for school staff. I mean, 1000 people are dying a day here, and re-opening schools in August is their second story on their homepage! Aren't there more appropriate things we could be discussing?

    From now on I'm simply going to assume they're putting all the re-open schools content on their site as clickbait.
  10. SteveWoodhouse

    SteveWoodhouse Occasional commenter

    Providing vital childcare over the summer?

    Did parents not have that planned already?
  11. phlogiston

    phlogiston Star commenter

    They probably did, but they're probably worried that it won't now happen.
    That doesn't mean that I think that school teachers are the most appropriate people to deliver summer childcare.
    Catgirl1964 and agathamorse like this.
  12. harsh-but-fair

    harsh-but-fair Star commenter

    To be fair to The Guardian - they're only reporting what the Children's Commissioner has said
    Morninglover likes this.
  13. Summerhols6

    Summerhols6 Occasional commenter

    Wow, I didn't realise we were rated so highly! 'Childcare! My new vocation is to be a Babysitter!
    agathamorse likes this.
  14. bessiesmith2

    bessiesmith2 New commenter

    Lots of my parent friends use their holiday entitlement to cover the summer (split between parents and sometimes grandparents) - but I guess if your business has been shut for several months there will be pressure not to take holiday in July / August.

    However some teachers are still going into schools to teach key workers' children and most of us are still delivering some form of home learning so it would seem unfair to deny us a break.
  15. MrMedia

    MrMedia Star commenter

    Child care until September is quite likely. Staffed by volunteers on a rota. schools will not be going back anytime soon. Not until the contact tracing (through the app) happens. And remember this, adults carry phones and contact trace - kids don’t. FE colleges maybe first - so long as they have smart phones.
  16. br0wnsugar

    br0wnsugar Occasional commenter

    So, based on this, termly staggered return and full re-opening of school - Easter 2021!
  17. br0wnsugar

    br0wnsugar Occasional commenter

    Someone stirring the pot, methinks or perhaps someone who has reached breaking point having to home support their children and are desperate for them to return to school.
  18. mrandmrsscience

    mrandmrsscience New commenter

    It’s become the nations obsession. Reopen reopen reopen. I don’t think some people even have considered the effects of this, but if the Daily Mail says its ok then it must be!
    agathamorse likes this.
  19. SteveWoodhouse

    SteveWoodhouse Occasional commenter

    I agree, at least in part.

    We need to reopen when, and in a way that’s better/safer than to not do so.
    agathamorse likes this.
  20. ProfoundlyPatient

    ProfoundlyPatient New commenter

    A very important thread. I think the fact that there is no vaccine and this virus is contagious means numbers of infected will rise again when lockdown eases. So there will be more lockdowns in the future.

    I also believe we will go back to school once the death rate has reached a low level (what “low level” means will be decided by the government). Once it rises again, I think we’ll be in lockdown again.

    I also believe schools will probably be one of the first areas to open again so that working parents can get back to work. But there needs to be an awareness that some parents will not be comfortable sending their children back, so I would assume full classes will not resume for a while.

    I think we’ll be back in June. But we will go back into lockdown again later in the year. Good luck everyone with the weeks and months ahead.
    phlogiston likes this.

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