# Primary Progress Measure

Discussion in 'Primary' started by sarah evans, Sep 27, 2017.

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1. ### sarah evansNew commenter

Hi all

I was off on mat. leave last year and am struggling to get my head around the way in which progress is now calculated from KS1 to KS2 data.

I have asked for clarification at school with little joy. As SLT I feel like I need to understand this!

I've read the gov document about children being placed in Prior Attainment Groups nationally and converted to an average scaled score. (Then progress being caluclated as a + or - figure). Does this mean it's not possible for us to predict our progress for the current Y6 cohort as you would need the data on every child in the country to do this?

On a simpler level, is there a way of defining how levels translate to new standards? (I can't see this online, but how are your schools approaching this?)

For example, I would (simplistically) suggest KS1 to KS2 progress to look like this:

KS1 L1 ------> KS2 Below standard

KS1 L2 -------> KS2 At Expected standard

KS1 L3 --------> KS2 Greater Depth than Expected standard

However, a colleague at another school told me that any children who achieved a 2a at KS1 were also being included in the group who had to achieve 'Greater Depth' at KS2 in order to make sufficient progress?

Thanks everyone

2. ### abacus1982Established commenter

It is quite straightforward and there is a document from the DfE which explains it all. Basically each child's average point score (APS) from KS1 for English and mathematics is used. They are grouped together will other children nationally who got a similar APS into a Prior Attainment Group (PAG). The mean average scaled score for that entire group is calculated and whatever the individual child got it is compared to the mean.

So if a child got a scaled score of 108 and the mean average for the PAG is 106 then the progress measure would be +2. If a child got a scaled score of 111 but the mean average for the PAG is 112 then the progress measure would be -1. All children's progress scores are calculated and divided by the number of children to give an overall measure. This video by Michael Tidd explains it all really clearly if I have failed miserably to do so!

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3. ### sarah evansNew commenter

No that's brilliant, thank you!

I think I kind of understand this part but the video will I'm sure help clarify.

Am I right then that there is no 'official' way to say if our current Y6 cohort are on track to make their progress?
As this is calculated nationally once the test is completed?

If so, how are your school tracking progress throughout the Key Stage?

Thanks again!

4. ### sarah evansNew commenter

I suppose I'm mainly querying the '2a' children at KS1...

Are we expected to get these children to 'At' standard, or 'Greater depth?'

5. ### jane_blondeNew commenter

Tracking progress is somewhat of a guessing game, but can be done as follows...

I created a spreadsheet and inputted all of the Year 6 chn's KS1 data in order to find out their KS1 average and allocate them to a Prior Attainment Group (PAG). These changed this year and can be found in this document:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...197/Primary_school_accountability_in_2017.pdf

This also tells you what the chn in that PAG's average scaled score was for this year. We can probably assume that the KS2 results of a large group of chn nationwide who achieved the same scores at KS1 shouldn't change too much from year to year, so I have then used this to set 'targets' for our chn.

We did this for the 16-17 school year based on the 15-16 average scaled scores, and chn's individual progress measures and the cohort's overall predicted progress measures in each subject did not change much and were pretty much in line with what we had predicted.

As for 2A children specifically, a child who got a 2A in all three subjects at KS1 has a KS1 average score of 17. This puts them in PAG 19, which makes them a top 'middle attainer'. This year, the averages for chn in this PAG group were as follows:

Reading scaled score: 106.91 Raw score: 35/50
Writing scaled score: 104.49
Maths scaled score: 106.1 Raw score: 88/110

You can find the raw to scaled equivalences here:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...5/2017_KS2_scaled_score_conversion_tables.pdf

In reading and maths, as someone already explained above, each child's progress measure will be the difference between their scaled score and their PAG's average. In writing, there are only three main scaled scores: Greater Depth- 113, Expected- 103 and Working Towards- 91 (plus some more for children who are working below key stage level).

This means that child who got all 2As would have a progress measure of -1.49 if they were to be Expected or +8.51 if they were to achieve Greater Depth. We did pretty well in writing last year and the overall progress measure was +2.2, but - as a guide - our individual progress measures ranged from +16.3 to -5.7! (+16.3 was an exceptionally able EAL child who had only just arrived in Y2 but who made excellent progress to achieve Greater Depth in Y6; -5.7 was a child who came to us in KS2 through FAP who was apparently level 2s at KS1 but who just scraped Working Towards!) I suppose I would say that some chn having a negative progress measure in writing is to be expected because otherwise every child who has a predicted scaled score of more than 103 would have to achieve Greater Depth to show progress, and this could be a significant proportion of the class.

I hope this makes sense and is helpful!

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6. ### abacus1982Established commenter

Same as above. Work out your APS for current Y5 and Y6. Remember it is the average of reading and writing, plus maths divided by two. Not add all three and divide by three. Then I would allocate each child the PAG from this year. This will tell you what scaled score they would've needed to score in order to get a 0 progress measure. This will give you a guide of how children need to perform although it will change depending on the national performance this year.

My staff and I found this particularly useful as we had a large number of girls in particular who were working at "age related" in maths but when we looked at their APS they needed to be getting high scaled score marks. Remember that writing scaled score is awarded as 103 for working at and 113 for greater depth. This means any child who is in a PAG which needs a scaled score of around 107-109 will either be a lovely positive score or a not so lovely negative score!!

7. ### sarah evansNew commenter

Thank you all so much.

This is so much clearer now and I also think others at my school may benefit from using this approach.

Off to find the KS1 levels for current Y6 cohort now!

8. ### sarah evansNew commenter

Could I also please just clarify regarding the scaled score of 103 for working at in writing...

PAG 18 (average APS 16.5 to 17: i.e almost 2a on average across the subjects combined)

This group had an average scaled score in writing of 103.05

So this means that any child in this group (or above) must be a greater depth writer or else risk a negative progress score in writing?

9. ### sarah evansNew commenter

Also was a scaled score given for 'working towards' in writing?

10. ### abacus1982Established commenter

Working Towards is 91 or 93, can't remember which! Yes any PAG with a score of over 103 will have a negative measure unless they get to greater depth. The last two years in my two different schools this has been balanced out by children getting age expected but their PAG averaging 100 to 103.

11. ### sarah evansNew commenter

Wow...it just seems so unfair when that child actually only achieved a 2b in writing at KS1! And is now expected to be greater depth on a much more challenging curriculum...

Although I appreciate how it may hopefully balance out, as you said.
Thanks again