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Primary numbers set to rise 10% by 2015, 20% by 2020, but Secondary still falling.

Discussion in 'Jobseekers' started by TheoGriff, Jan 25, 2012.

  1. TheoGriff

    TheoGriff Star commenter

    Today's Independent gives some clear figures for the future of pupil numbers - and thus hopefully jobs - over the next 3 to 8 years.

    The numbers of children at primary school are expected to rise by a fifth
    over the coming decade, official figures suggest.

    By 2020, there will be 4.8 million state primary pupils - 20% higher than in
    2011
    and reaching levels last seen in the early 1970s, according to statistics
    published by the Department for Education (DfE).

    The hike is being fuelled by a birth rate that has been rising since 2002,
    and is projected to continue to increase until 2014, the data suggests.

    By 2015 there will be 4.39 million primary age children in England, a 10%
    increase from last year.


    The rise in pupil numbers is set to put more pressure on school places, which
    are already being severely stretched in some parts of the country.

    Figures published earlier this month showed that a fifth of primary schools
    and a quarter of secondaries were full or had too many pupils last year.

    In total, more than 4,000 schools across England were at or above the limit
    in terms of student numbers - with Bristol and parts of London among those
    feeling the squeeze the most.

    Today's statistics, looking at national pupil projections, show that while
    primary numbers are set to increase, secondary school pupil numbers are set to
    fall.


    The data shows that state-funded secondary school pupils aged under 16
    reached a peak in 2004, and then began falling.

    In 2011, there were 2.84 million state-funded secondary pupils aged under 16.


    This is expected to fall by around 5% to 2.7 million by 2015, and then start
    to rise again as primary school pupils start secondary school.

    Schools Minister Lord Hill said: "We're creating thousands more places to
    deal with the impact of soaring birth rates on primary schools. We're more than
    doubling targeted investment at areas facing the greatest pressure on numbers -
    over £4billion in the next four years.

    "We are building Free Schools and letting the most popular schools expand to
    meet demand from parents. We are intervening to drive up standards in the
    weakest schools with thousands of empty places nationally - so they become
    places where parents actually want to send their children."

    Shadow education secretary Stephen Twigg said: "The analysis of future pupil
    numbers shows the Government must respond to real need in our education system,
    not just promote pet projects.

    "There is an urgent crisis in our primary school system that the Government
    is ignoring - 10% more places are needed before the election. By contrast,
    secondary school numbers are expected to be 5% lower than in 2011.

    "The majority of need is for primaries yet half the funding from the Autumn
    Statement will go on pet projects like free schools. Only a third of free
    schools in the pipeline are primaries, and the areas with the biggest need will
    not get a free school. This shows how out of touch the Tory-led Government is
    with real need on the ground.

    "At a time of budget constraints, and with many parents struggling to get
    into their first choice primary school, these figures should be a wake-up call
    to the Government."
    I hope that these figures will give some of you a good feeling.
    Best wishes
    ___________________________________________
    TheoGriff. Member of the TES Careers Advice Service.
    I do Application and Interview one-to-ones, and also contribute to the Job Application Seminars. We look at application letters, executive summaries and interviews, with practical exercises that people really appreciate.
    I shall be doing the Win That Teaching Job seminar on Saturday February 25th
    www.tesweekendworkshop87.eventbrite.com
     

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