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Peterborough by-election

Discussion in 'Personal' started by lanokia, Jun 6, 2019.

  1. lanokia

    lanokia Star commenter

    So with Fiona Onasanya recalled Peterborough has been voting today.

    This tweet predicts a Brexit Party win.
    upload_2019-6-6_17-50-38.png

    Be interesting to see the outcome... not that it'll change the arithmetic in Westminster... but still...
     
  2. MAGAorMIGA

    MAGAorMIGA Star commenter

    It's an interesting constituency, Peterboough, that has see-sawed between the main parties for thirty years, but clearly has shifted rightwards, judging from the 2015 result.
     
  3. lanokia

    lanokia Star commenter

    But Labour won in 2017...
     
  4. Rott Weiler

    Rott Weiler Star commenter Forum guide

    I'm mystified how that prediction is calculated. It's not based on exit polls as it's illegal to publish those on election day before the polls close.
     
  5. lanokia

    lanokia Star commenter

    Made me wonder too... but it'll be interesting to see how accurate it is.
     
    Laphroig likes this.
  6. MAGAorMIGA

    MAGAorMIGA Star commenter

    Yes, but that looks a bit like an anomalous result.
    General Election 2017: Peterborough[76]
    Party Candidate Votes % ±
    Labour Fiona Onasanya 22,950 48.1 +12.5
    Conservative Stewart Jackson 22,343 46.8 +7.1
    Liberal Democrat Beki Sellick 1,597 3.3 −0.4
    Green Fiona Radić 848 1.8 -0.8
    Majority 607 1.3
    Turnout 47,738 67.5 +2.6
    Labour gain from Conservative Swing +2.7

    General Election 2015: Peterborough[77]
    Party Candidate Votes % ±
    Conservative Stewart Jackson 18,684 39.7 -0.7
    Labour Lisa Forbes 16,759 35.6 +6.1
    UKIP Mary Herdman 7,485 15.9 +9.2
    Liberal Democrat Darren Fower 1,774 3.8 -15.9
    Green Darren Bisby-Boyd 1,218 2.6 +1.4
    Liberal Chris Ash 639 1.4 N/A
    Independent John Fox 516 1.1 N/A
    Majority 1,925 4.1 -6.7
    Turnout 47,075 64.9 +1.0

    General Election 2010: Peterborough[78]
    Party Candidate Votes % ±
    Conservative Stewart Jackson 18,133 40.4 -2.9
    Labour Ed Murphy 13,272 29.5 -4.8
    Liberal Democrat Nick Sandford 8,816 19.6 +2.9
    UKIP Frances Fox 3,007 6.7 +3.5
    English Democrat Rob King 770 1.7 N/A
    Green Fiona Radic 523 1.2 N/A
    Independent John Swallow 406 0.9 N/A
    Majority 4,861 10.8 +4.2
    Turnout 44,927 63.9 +2.9
    Conservative hold Swing +0.95

    General Election 2005: Peterborough[79]
    Party Candidate Votes % ±
    Conservative Stewart Jackson 17,364 42.1 +4.1
    Labour Helen Clark 14,624 35.5 -9.6
    Liberal Democrat Nick Sandford 6,876 16.7 +2.2
    UKIP Mary Herdman 1,242 3.0 +0.6
    National Front Terry Blackham 931 2.3 N/A
    Independent Marc Potter 167 0.4 N/A
    Majority 2,730 6.6 N/A
    Turnout 41,194 61.0 +5.8
    Conservative gain from Labour Swing +6.85

    General Election 2001: Peterborough [80]
    Party Candidate Votes % ±
    Labour Helen Brinton 17,975 45.1 -5.2
    Conservative Stewart Jackson 15,121 38.0 +2.8
    Liberal Democrat Nick Sandford 5,761 14.5 +3.8
    UKIP Julian Fairweather 955 2.4 +1.7
    Majority 2,854 7.1 -8.0
    Turnout 39,812 61.4 -11.4
    Labour hold Swing -4.0

    General Election 1997: Peterborough [81]
    Party Candidate Votes % ±
    Labour Helen Brinton 24,365 50.3 +12.5
    Conservative Jacqueline Foster 17,042 35.2 -14.3
    Liberal Democrat David Howarth 5,170 10.7 +1.4
    Referendum Philip Slater 924 1.91 N/A
    Natural Law Charles Brettell 334 0.7 +0.4
    UKIP John Linskey 317 0.7 N/A
    ProLife Alliance Stephen Goldspink 275 0.6 N/A
    Majority 7,323 15.1 N/A
    Turnout 48,427 72.8 -2.3
    Labour gain from Conservative Swing +11.6
     
  7. peakster

    peakster Star commenter

    I suspect Farage's ******** will win - a great result for the country.....not
     
    Laphroig likes this.
  8. MAGAorMIGA

    MAGAorMIGA Star commenter

    Certainly it was an amazing performance by Fiona Onansanya - 22,000 votes was the highest since 1997, but there was no UKIP candidate, just two years after they seized 7,500 votes, and together with the Tories there were 26,000 right-wing voters. These will be Brexit Party to a man, and that's why I expect a comfortable BP win.
     
  9. MAGAorMIGA

    MAGAorMIGA Star commenter

    What is amazing is how the LibDems went from nearly 9000 votes in 2010 to just over a thousand. I suspect this time they will be back nearer their historic level of support.
     
  10. JL48

    JL48 Star commenter

    Yes, it appears that most Tory voters have switched allegiance - at least for the moment.
     
  11. JL48

    JL48 Star commenter

    Progressive voters need to pick a party - or at least vote tactically - or they might as well not exist with FPTP.
     
  12. nomad

    nomad Star commenter

    It was posted on the 4th June.

    not on the 6th.
     
    lanokia likes this.
  13. Rott Weiler

    Rott Weiler Star commenter Forum guide

    So it was, should have looked more closely. I still don't know what it is supposed to represent though!
     
    nomad likes this.
  14. lanokia

    lanokia Star commenter

    Your idea of "anomalous" and mine are very different.
     
  15. lanokia

    lanokia Star commenter

    How is it amazing when it fits with the national pattern of people rejecting the lib dems after the coalition?
     
  16. EmanuelShadrack

    EmanuelShadrack Star commenter

    Well, well, well. Labour hold. I didn't think that would happen.
     
  17. lanokia

    lanokia Star commenter

  18. MAGAorMIGA

    MAGAorMIGA Star commenter

    Lisa Forbes stood as the Labour candidate in 2015 with nary a peep about "anti-Semitism". I wonder why. It's time this nastiness was removed from politics. Criticising the Israeli Government's actions and policies is NOT anti-Semitism, and those who weaponize it are doing Israel no favours.
     
  19. MAGAorMIGA

    MAGAorMIGA Star commenter

    It's actually an interesting result. 48.4% turnout.
    2019 by-election: Peterborough[76]
    Party Candidate Votes % ±
    Labour Lisa Forbes 10,484 31 -17
    Brexit Mike Greene 9,801 29 +29
    Conservative Paul Bristow 7,243 21 -25
    Liberal Democrat Beki Sellick 4,159 12 +9
    Green Joseph Wells 1,035 3 +1
    UKIP John Whitby 400 1 +1
    Christian Peoples Tom Rogers 162
    English Democrat Stephen Goldspink 153
    SDP Patrick O'Flynn 135
    Monster Raving Loony Alan 'Howling Laud' Hope 112
    No description Andrew Moore 101
    Common Good Dick Rodgers 60
    Renew Peter Ward 45
    UK EU Pierre Kirk 25
    No description Bobby Smith 5
    Majority 683
    Turnout 48.4

    So, contrary to my expectation, the Tory vote held up better than I expected, so the Right splitting the vote let Labour in. I think Mr Greene's background in Greybull as a vulture capitalist par excellence weighed against him - at least I hope it did. he House of Commons already has far too many people of his type in it.
     
  20. monicabilongame

    monicabilongame Star commenter

    I wonder, if a Brexit candidate had won, whether the daily fail would have exerted itself by reporting on ay racist or Islamophobic tweets by said candidate? I somehow doubt it.
     
    towncryer and MAGAorMIGA like this.

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