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Opinion poll data from your own constituency - youGov

Discussion in 'Personal' started by Corvuscorax, Dec 10, 2019.

  1. Corvuscorax

    Corvuscorax Star commenter

  2. sadscientist

    sadscientist Established commenter

    It is being updated with the most recent data this morning (Tuesday) - if you use the link you may need to refresh the page to see the update when it appears.
     
  3. Corvuscorax

    Corvuscorax Star commenter

    Thank you
     
  4. nomad

    nomad Star commenter

    Very useful.
     
  5. Ivartheboneless

    Ivartheboneless Star commenter

    Any poll is biased by who it asks and the way it asks it. YouGov may be fairly respected, but their polls are are still flawed. Poll sample sizes are ridiculously small. They are inaccurate and have been previously.
     
    coffeekid likes this.
  6. Corvuscorax

    Corvuscorax Star commenter

    well, I don't have any axe to grind either way, but I think they were accurate last time.
     
  7. oldsomeman

    oldsomeman Star commenter

    thanks for the link
    Does not alter the fact that in my area it would need a tidal wave to overthrow the Labour vote so Labour is almost certain to get in.
    Interesting that based on the current poll there will be a majority in the house for the Tories of nearly a 100. But the game is not over till it ends and victory will be on the night .
     
  8. oldsomeman

    oldsomeman Star commenter

    One cannot ask the whole country to cast a mock vote..so they sample according to worked out procedures.. What else can one use?
     
  9. Corvuscorax

    Corvuscorax Star commenter

    they need 317 to get a majority. So it is a majority, by 43. :(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(
     
  10. oldsomeman

    oldsomeman Star commenter

    Even if they get it I hope they don't squander it Like May did due to listening to daft advisors.
     
  11. Doitforfree

    Doitforfree Star commenter

    Yougov polls are terrible. I don't know why they're used. They have so many really basic flaws that the data is meaningless.
     
    monicabilongame likes this.
  12. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    The YouGov MRP poll is far from being ridiculously small. It is based on a sample of approximately 100,000 interrviews. That's 100 times the size of most polls and the reason why they are able to give individual constituency estimates.

    They claim to have correctly predicted the results in 93% of individual constituencies for the 2017 general election.

    As far as the overall result is concerned, they are currently estimating that the Tories will win 359 seats, giving them an overall majority of 47, and that Labour are set to lose 51 seats, their worst result since 1983. It's worth keeping an eye on the site, as data frequently changes.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/27/key-findings-our-mrp
     
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2019
    install and nomad like this.
  13. nomad

    nomad Star commenter

    Since Peter Kellner's retirement, its methodology has been overseen by Stanford University professor Doug Rivers.

    YouGov is a member of the British Polling Council (BPC).

    The objectives of the BPC are to ensure standards of disclosure that provide consumers of survey results that enter the public domain with an adequate basis for judging the reliability and validity of the results. Through full disclosure the Council aims to encourage the highest professional standards in public opinion polling and to advance the understanding, among politicians, the media and general public, of how polls are conducted and how to interpret poll results.

    The President of the BPC is John Curtice, who regularly appears on the TV news and other political programmes.

    The Objects and Rules of membership of the BPC are exacting, viz:

    2. What Must Be Disclosed By Members

    2.1. All data and research findings made on the basis of surveys conducted in the United Kingdom by member organisations that enter the public domain, must include reference to the following:

    • Client commissioning the survey;
    • Dates of interviewing;
    • Method of obtaining the interviews (e.g. in-person, telephone, internet)
    • The universe effectively represented (all adults, voters etc)
    • The percentages upon which conclusions are based;
    • Size of the sample and geographic coverage;
    2.2. Whenever it is practical to do so the following information should also be published
    • Complete wording of questions upon which any data that has entered the public domain are based;
    • A web address where full computer tables may be viewed
    2.3 For polls reporting voting intention figures, the publication should include the British Polling Council statement covering the level of uncertainty that has historically been associated with polls of voting intention. (For further information, see British Polling Council Introduces New Rule on Uncertainty Attached to Polls.)

    2.4. Public opinion polling organisations reporting results will endeavour to have print and broadcast media include the above items in their news stories and will in any event make a report containing these items together with full computer tables of the results available on their web site within 2 working days of the original release.

    2.5. In addition to the information outlined above, the public opinion polling organisation responsible for conducting the survey that has entered the public domain will place the following information on its own web site within 2 working days of the data being published.

    • A full description of the sampling procedures adopted by the organisation
    • Computer tables showing the exact questions asked in the order they were asked, all response codes and the weighted and unweighted bases for all demographics and other data that has been published
    • A description of any weighting, filtering, modelling or imputation procedures that have been employed, the weighted and (where relevant) unweighted figures for all variables (demographic or otherwise) used to weight the data (irrespective of whether or not such variables appear in any tabulated analyses of the data), and the source(s) of the data used to set weighting targets.
    • An e-mail address for further enquiries. It is assumed that all other reasonable requests for other data, over and above the requirements specified herein, necessary for readers of the polls to assess the validity of the data will be answered
    • A link to the BPC web-site
    • In the case of a poll of voting intentions for an election or referendum (including any election or referendum that has not yet been called), specify any changes to the way in which those estimates have been obtained since the company’s previous poll of those voting intentions. This includes any changes to the sampling procedures, weighting and the treatment of Don’t Knows and Refusals.
     
    install and florian gassmann like this.
  14. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    Just to add that Sir John Curtice is also Professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde and Senior Research Fellow at NatCen Social Research. His polling work has been praised for its accuracy, and his 2017 election exit poll correctly predicted the Conservatives would lose their majority.
     
    nomad likes this.
  15. oldsomeman

    oldsomeman Star commenter

    Does not make halfpence of difference to those who wish to see no right in certain polls
     
    nomad and florian gassmann like this.
  16. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    Yes, Sir John Curtice does labour under the reputation of being an expert. :(
     
    nomad likes this.
  17. minnie me

    minnie me Star commenter

    We had a call last night from the Tory party asking if / for whom we were voting this week
     
  18. minnie me

    minnie me Star commenter

    ... ah I understand why - knife edge here
     
  19. Corvuscorax

    Corvuscorax Star commenter

    what sort of flaws?
     
  20. Doitforfree

    Doitforfree Star commenter

    Basic ones like having a lot of boxes to tick on one page, but the boxes are tiny and it takes ages to select them accurately so people are more likely to get fed up of picking the one they want and just click whichever box the cursor falls on first. Some surveys are overly long inducing boredom and again random clicking. The bribe of a small fee or a place in a prize draw encourages participation, but also the desire to finish the boring survey as quickly as possible. They have many questions which need a 'don't know' response but don't have one, forcing participants to choose even when they have no opinion or are undecided.
     

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