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Ofsted and Progress 8

Discussion in 'Ofsted inspections' started by CandysDog, Mar 18, 2017.

  1. CandysDog

    CandysDog Established commenter

    Two schools I know of, both previously rated 'good', have recently gone into special measures, with 'inadequate' for outcomes.

    You would, therefore, assume that these schools have very low Progress 8 scores. That's what Ofsted is meant to be looking at, after all.

    As it happens, both schools have identical Progress 8 scores.


    That's so marginal, it's basically 0.

    Yet these schools have still been rated 'inadequate'.

    In other words, all must be above average.

    (Before anyone asks: both schools meet the Government's floor standards. One has English and Maths and EBacc percentages just below national averages. The other has English and Maths above national averages and an EBacc pass rate considerably above.)
  2. mrcooldude

    mrcooldude Occasional commenter

    What are the catchments like? Perhaps these kids could be doing a lot better?
    brighton56 likes this.
  3. CandysDog

    CandysDog Established commenter

    As I said, both schools have a Progress 8 score of (fractionally below) zero. These students are doing just as well as other students with the same starting points.

    The schools are geographically far apart. The former has a pretty mixed (and wide) urban catchment area. The latter (the one with the better raw results) also has a mixed catchment, but is in an area of significant disadvantage – lots of EU regeneration funding and the like. Both schools have Pupil Premium numbers above national averages (again, more so for the latter school).
  4. mrcooldude

    mrcooldude Occasional commenter

    Ok.I guess there is every chance the inspector was just a **** . Perhaps they got someone who overly looked at the progress of disadvantaged children? What do their Ofsted reports say?
    Perhaps there are inconsistencies with assessment in both schools, possibly from KS1. Maybe the KS1 are massively under assessing the children in order to get good progress at KS2 and the inspector picked that out from speaking to the children and looking at their books?
    Another reason could be that the data does not match the books and teaching the inspector saw. Perhaps the teaching and books indicated poor teaching and this didn't match with the data? If this was the case the inspector probably smelt something fishy.
    These are all guesses mind you.
  5. CandysDog

    CandysDog Established commenter

    Both schools are secondaries, so the outcomes are all externally assessed.
    1 person likes this.
  6. mrmatt73

    mrmatt73 Occasional commenter

    A minus score would have raised an interest in OFSTED right away. Perhaps, their Progress 8 score and results were trending down. Perhaps, when they inspected they opened up a can of worms which made them inadequate ?
    wanet likes this.
  7. CandysDog

    CandysDog Established commenter

    Half of all schools are going to get below zero. Are Ofsted going to make half of all secondaries 'inadequate'?

    In addition, these schools are only fractionally below zero, anyway. Both have confidence intervals that stretch above zero. In other words, statistically speaking, they cannot be confidently said to be below average at all. That's why the league tables put them in the middle ('average') band of all schools.

    There were no Progress 8 scores last year. In other measures (English & Maths and EBacc), both schools were up a little on the previous year.

    Perhaps. But, remember, they got 'inadequate' for their outcomes. This is the bit that should be tied closely to the statistics.
  8. banjouk

    banjouk Occasional commenter

    The confidence intervals for P8 for 2016 are -0.24 to +0.03. Any schools overall progress that falls inside of this banding is treated as insignificant by Ofsted. It's more likely that when drilling down into the vulnerable groups the schools had P8 scores that were significantly below the national and that may trigger a cause for concern.
  9. 02111980

    02111980 New commenter

    We were visited in November, and one of the big foci, despite them being over everything, was disadvantaged students. If the gaps are not closed, closing or trying to be closed pro actively and can't be justified, it may lead to a similar result to us! They did two other schools after us in the area and another gained a 3 and we were all thrown the curve ball of the other school getting a 4!
  10. CandysDog

    CandysDog Established commenter

    Perhaps, but one of the reports literally says 'outcomes are inadequate', which clearly implies that overall results, not specific groups' results, are the problem (despite, as you note, the overall Progress 8 score being well within the confidence intervals).
  11. CandysDog

    CandysDog Established commenter

    Update on this:

    One of the schools (the first one) has now been reinspected. It’s only had one set of exam results since the last inspection, where its Progress 8 score fell a little. However, despite being lower than its previous ‘inadequate’ Progress 8 score, the outcomes are now judged as ‘good’.

    No, I don’t understand it either.
  12. banjouk

    banjouk Occasional commenter

    Worth a look here below. You can be RI right up to +0.30 and inadequate upto +0.04. These are not 'limits' and any school can be the exception to the rule.

  13. CandysDog

    CandysDog Established commenter

    I have only ever heard of schools with positive Progress 8 scores being given ‘inadequate’ overall because of safeguarding.

    And remember both these schools were given ‘inadequate’ for outcomes.

    (Interestingly, the other school (the one Ofsted hasn’t reinspected) now has a Progress 8 score above +0.04. This is despite Ofsted claiming the progress of those students (then in Year 11) was one of the reasons it was given ‘inadequate’ for outcomes.)

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