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Not positive but of interest

Discussion in 'Personal' started by Nellyfuf2, Oct 19, 2020.

  1. Nellyfuf2

    Nellyfuf2 Lead commenter

  2. alex_teccy

    alex_teccy Star commenter

  3. lindenlea

    lindenlea Star commenter

    Oh, sufficient unto the day ..........
    Lara mfl 05 likes this.
  4. racroesus

    racroesus Star commenter

    Been there, seen that.
  5. Rott Weiler

    Rott Weiler Star commenter Forum guide


    Actually their report said nothing of the sort.

    What they said was that if the government failed to introduce a Suppression strategy aimed at keeping R below 1.0, then there would be a very high number of deaths (the number depended on the modelling assumptions - 500,000+ was their prediction if the UK did absolutely nothing and simply ignored that Covid19 existed, allowing the virus to run uncontrolled through the whole population)

    But if the government introduced a Suppression strategy - which it did - then "The suppression strategy, they predict, will lead to “a few thousands or tens of thousands” of deaths." That prediction was back in March. So fairly accurate, don't you think?

    And this is what Imperial College meant by "Suppression strategy":

    "...suppression will minimally require a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, though it should be recognised that such closures may have negative impacts on health systems due to increased absenteeism.

    The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed.

    We show that intermittent social distancing – triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers rebound."

    Another pretty accurate prediction of what's actually happening now, wouldn't you agree? Shame the government ignored the bit about closing schools and universities too!

    Last edited: Oct 19, 2020
  6. Nellyfuf2

    Nellyfuf2 Lead commenter

    It kind of makes me feel sorry for Johnson. He'll go down in history as the PM who prorogued Parliament and the PM that had to consider using troops to quell civil unrest on the streets of Britain. I hope never comes to that and we just queue up and grumble about the weather, hoping that candles have been delivered and tea bags.
    I never had a Brexit stock, nor really much for Covid. I was the one that had no toilet paper etc. I confess to large sacks of flour cos Morrisons were selling these from their bakery and it's really convenient. But now I wonder if I should perhaps get a few more candles? Stock up a bit on things?
  7. Jude Fawley

    Jude Fawley Star commenter

    Megastock Now!
  8. Scintillant

    Scintillant Star commenter

    If we did nothing.

    We had a long lockdown and already have 65000 excess deaths...

    Yep, sounds reasonable to me.
  9. colpee

    colpee Star commenter

    The first will be forgotten by the public, the second puts him in the same league as Churchill, which is what he dreams of.

    I don't feel sorry for him, I think he will be remembered as the PM who volunteered to jump into a hole, then called for a bigger spade!
    Doitforfree likes this.
  10. colpee

    colpee Star commenter

  11. Wotton

    Wotton Lead commenter

    So is this going to set off the panic buying again.:(:mad:
    Oscillatingass likes this.
  12. colpee

    colpee Star commenter

    It's prudent to stock up, it's only called 'panic' when everyone does it at once. Adding a little to each weekly shop till one has a sufficient stock of essentials for a couple of weeks is how it should be done.
    EmanuelShadrack likes this.
  13. Rott Weiler

    Rott Weiler Star commenter Forum guide

    It's only called 'panic' when people want to criticise you. My prudent stocking up is your panic buying etc

    I remember seeing lots of people stocking up back in March. Sometimes excessively, but I never saw a single person in a state of panic.

    The supply chain is more robust now. I doubt the shortages of Match/April will be repeated. Not unless Brexit goes horribly wrong but I understand Gove and Johnson (and quite a few wise and sensible posters on here) have assured us that won't happen. So what could possibly go wrong? :)
  14. Doitforfree

    Doitforfree Star commenter

    I'm not saying it's a wrong thing to do, but that is in fact what caused the shortages in March. If everyone buys a little extra it adds up to a lot, which the shops can't suddenly produce out of nowhere.

    Ed: and I should add that I am buying a little extra now and then, so I'm not being critical!
    Oscillatingass and colpee like this.
  15. Nellyfuf2

    Nellyfuf2 Lead commenter

    A re chargeable torch won't be a lot of good in a black out. Not if I've forgotten to recharge it.
    colpee likes this.
  16. colpee

    colpee Star commenter

    Ah well there is the planning element:D That's when you smugly reach for your cyalume and read a book.
  17. hhhh

    hhhh Star commenter

    But too many people want to hear that Covid's no big deal, and that we can get back to normal...some people are surprised that rationing-which could be done with air-drops-hasn't happened yet. Of course, there are those who think that it would be used to reduce obesity...
  18. racroesus

    racroesus Star commenter

    Get a wind-up lantern.
    nizebaby likes this.
  19. nomad

    nomad Star commenter

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