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New referendum if TM loses tomorrow do you think?

Discussion in 'Personal' started by dunnocks, Jan 13, 2019.

  1. dunnocks

    dunnocks Star commenter

    or what would her other options be?

    or is there any chance she could win?

    or will the government resign?
     
    ultrablondbird likes this.
  2. dunnocks

    dunnocks Star commenter

    I'd say
    1. Very few, if any
    2.Very little, if any
    3. possibly, eventually, but probably not immediately.
     
  3. FrankWolley

    FrankWolley Star commenter

    She won't win on Tuesday... But I don't think she'll resign. She might threaten a General Election to scare some of her Tory opponents...
     
    needabreak and dunnocks like this.
  4. dunnocks

    dunnocks Star commenter

    I don't think she personally will resign, but enough of the government might to end her premiereship anyway....
     
    FrankWolley likes this.
  5. sparkleghirl

    sparkleghirl Star commenter

    They (whoever 'they' are after tomorrow's vote) will steamroller through Brexit anyway, despite knowing it cedes control, despite knowing it's damaging for the economy and for the NHS, despite knowing it's not best for britain.

    What's best for britain doesn't matter anymore. For some it's about deregulation and the chance to get rich quick at the expense of others, for some it's about appeasing the Tommy Robinsons of this world and for some it's about getting rid of the Polish deli on the high street.

    Brexit will happen. Prepare yourselves as best you can because it's going to be a very rough ride. Pity the next generations who will pay the highest price.
     
  6. ROSIEGIRL

    ROSIEGIRL Lead commenter

    Who knows?
    For useful and informed reflection on the whole BrexitBallsUp I like the Brexitcast podcast from the BBC. Quite jolly and informal, but gives an insight into the .... I can't even find the words to describe the mess we're in!
    Worth a listen.
     
  7. grumbleweed

    grumbleweed Star commenter

    She won't win
    She won't call an election
    She won't nor will anyone else get a better deal from the EU because they want to flex their muscles to show the world how difficult it is for anyone to leave ( feel a song coming on)
    It will be a no deal.
     
  8. koopatroopa

    koopatroopa Senior commenter

    I think we're going to go into a general election with both main parties supporting Brexit. I'd fa rather another referendum, based on No Deal, May's Deal, Status Quo.
     
  9. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    The vote is on Tuesday, not tomorrow, and parliament has already decreed what will happen when the government loses. Theresa May must come back with Plan B in three days.

    We don't know what Plan B will be, but my guess is that it will be remarkably similar to Plan A, but with a guarantee that the Irish backstop cannot be used.

    While there is no doubt that the government will lose on Tuesday, it is important to remember that it's only the Irish backstop that most MPs object to in the Withdrawal Agreement. I don't know any who want to see the protection of citizens' rights removed. And most realise that the transition period (including its cost) is essential for UK business.
     
    nomad likes this.
  10. irs1054

    irs1054 Star commenter

    The papers have written that Jeremy Corbyn will trigger a vote of no confidence (let's hope he gets the wording right this time) immediately after May's defeat. Action at last. I would be more hopeful if there was any inkling that Labour had a viable plan but hey ho, if it breaks the deadlock. May has written yet another ridiculous piece swearing retribution if she doesn't get her way. (retribution by proxy that is)

    The basic problem is one of arithmetic. There is no majority for May's plan but also there is no majority for anything else. If the UK is not to crash out of the EU (the default if nothing else happens) then a plan together with a majority for that plan has to be concocted. It seems that some backbench MPs are moving along these lines to the refrain from some elements of the press of ,"gunpowder, treason and plot". (well not the first but certainly the other two)

    But this is exactly what needs to happen to break the current deadlock.

    In terms of prediction, the situation is so chaotic that it is impossible to work out what will happen next.
     
    sodalime likes this.
  11. red_observer

    red_observer Star commenter

    I don’t think anyone knows what’s going to happen if the vote is lost by the Tories. The PM hasn’t got a clue.
     
  12. peakster

    peakster Star commenter

    That's why we are where we are.
     
    red_observer likes this.
  13. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    And no majority, I suspect, for a vote of no confidence in the government, which is why Mr Corbyn keeps putting off the suggestion. The Tories and the DUP don't want to lose their seats - and neither of the remain-supporting parties (the SNP and the Lib Dems) have done particularly well in recent elections, so it would be a risk for them, too.
     
    sodalime and nomad like this.
  14. red_observer

    red_observer Star commenter

    I can’t see how a no confidence vote would work as the DUP and Tory back benchers don’t support Corbyn.
     
    nomad and florian gassmann like this.
  15. lanokia

    lanokia Star commenter

    So we had a referendum... the result of that hasn't been implemented.. .

    Then we have another referendum that is really only happening to negate the un-enacted result of the last referendum ... and why exactly should we pay attention to that new result?

    Imagine if elections were run this way... May calls an election. Corbyn wins. Ooops, wrong result. Call another election until the electorate gives the right result.
     
    needabreak likes this.
  16. Duke of York

    Duke of York Star commenter

    The difference between an election and leaving the EU is that when the nation realises it ended up with a shower like the current lot, it only has to suffer for a few years before it can kick their arrses. Leave the EU and we're stuffed. They might let us rejoin at some point in the future, but it won't be on the favourable terms we currently have.

    And let's face it, we'd only consider rejoining if as expected, it all ends in tears and Britain becomes a basket case. Take away the racist elements and the shysters like JRM, who are hoping to make a fortune from our leaving and think... We're not really doing that bad from EU membership. Far better than many who are unable to become EU members.
     
    dleaf12 likes this.
  17. peakster

    peakster Star commenter

    Referendums are advisory - that's the difference.

    ..and remember - the decision to call the first one was by one individual for purely political purposes.

    Ultimately - the country must come first - is anyone claiming that a no-deal Brexit is in the national interest.

    I actually get quite angry with May when she throws that phrase into her endless "Vote for my deal" speeches and essays.

    In her case it means - in the interest of myself and my miserable party.

    Let's be clear about this - this IS a crisis - but it is a crisis made in the current government (if one can call it that any more)
     
    MAGAorMIGA, sodalime, nomad and 2 others like this.
  18. red_observer

    red_observer Star commenter

    Spot on in all respects
     
  19. blazer

    blazer Star commenter

    It's the EU way!
     
  20. nomad

    nomad Star commenter

    It is doubtful there would be a second referendum. Labour will not be calling for one. In Friday's 'Any Questions' Diane Abbott ceded that even if there was, the result would still be 'Leave'. https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0001yb2 (31:45)
     
    border_walker likes this.

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