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It's still going to be a herd immunity

Discussion in 'Personal' started by shakes1616, Apr 9, 2020.

  1. shakes1616

    shakes1616 Established commenter

    Cos otherwise we'll have to keep a distance and stay home until a vaccine comes along. Most cases are in London where the tube is packed. So the virus is spreading through London (and the Midlands) until herd immunity is reached.
     
  2. moscowbore

    moscowbore Star commenter

    Herd immunity is the only way to go. A vaccine is 18 months away. There will be irreversible damage to the economy by then. A recession? I find that quite funny. People are publicly worrying about the economy shrinking by a few percent when in actual fact the whole economy might not survive at all. All of the money poured into paying salaries of people who are at home is a fraction of the cost of those people losing their jobs, businesses going bust and there being 10 million unemployed and on benefits, crushing the economy for a generation.
     
  3. shakes1616

    shakes1616 Established commenter

    Yes. That's the point I was making. The government said at first they will deal with Covid19 by herd immunity then they said no cos 250 000 will die so they did a lock down. But it's travelling through London most where the tube and trains and buses are crammed still so my point was it's still going to be a herd immunity in the end as otherwise we'll be in lock down until a vaccine comes along
     
  4. peakster

    peakster Star commenter

    Not true - the government have NEVER said they were going to try herd immunity.

    They just pursued a "policy" of complete inertia to achieve the same thing.
     
    Laphroig likes this.
  5. shakes1616

    shakes1616 Established commenter

    They must have thought about herd immunity as I read that the scientists calculated 250 000 would die. Also I remember Boris Johnson mentioned it right at the beginning in his speech to the public.
     
    Mermaid7 likes this.
  6. peakster

    peakster Star commenter

    If they want herd immunity - end the lockdown
     
  7. shakes1616

    shakes1616 Established commenter

    That's my point. There isn't a lock down in London as the tube and trains are crammed so what's the point? It will be a herd immunity then won't it if key workers cram the public transport. Read properly.
     
  8. peakster

    peakster Star commenter

    The key workers (including my Daughter by the way) are on crowded public transport because there are fewer tubes and buses.

    You have no idea what you're talking about.
     
  9. MrMedia

    MrMedia Star commenter

    I disagree naturally. They are working on reducing R to below 1. Once that happens the virus effectively starts to 'die'. When R is above 1 it is growing. Once you’ve got it back down to a small number you can begin to use test and trace to stamp out small clusters. However, this will rely on people not having large gatherings.
    The report from the Guardian this morning based on those who do the testing and tracing shows that it is large gatherings of people who come together for an event that fires up infections (not door handles, mail and so forth). Public transport is indeed one area. Sporting events, pubs, churches and so forth are others. More high risk are where people travel distances for a gathering (conferences, French chalets) and then return.
    What is likely to happen is that lower risk areas will slowly return to normal. Higher risk gatherings will continue to be banned to keep the infection rate of R below 1.
    The vaccine will arrive more quickly than you suppose, possibly by January to March 2021. Bunker down for a year of very carefully selected social restrictions and watching sport on television play out in empty stadiums.
     
    border_walker and stopwatch like this.
  10. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    I fear you have been seduced by fake news if you think that. The sequence of events was that the government announced that they needed to protect the elderly and vulnerable most urgently. On 12th March, Robert Peston wrote that that sounded like "herd immunity" for everyone else. On 13th March, the Chief Scientific Officer, Patrick Valence, stated that herd immunity is, with no vaccine being available, an inevitable consequence of the virus spreading - especially spreading asymptomatically - but not something planned for.

    On 14th March, Matt Hancock explained for the hard of understanding that herd immunity is a scientific concept and not a strategy taken on by the UK government. ‘We have a plan, based on the expertise of world-leading scientists,’ he wrote in the Telegraph. ‘Herd immunity is not a part of it.’
     
    ajrowing, T34, border_walker and 3 others like this.
  11. shakes1616

    shakes1616 Established commenter

    So I'm right then what I said to a point
     
  12. moscowbore

    moscowbore Star commenter

    Or another way of viewing the situation is that a slow spread emanating from London where the diseased can shed all over their Tube companions is a slow burn herd immunity strategy. This would be a publicly acceptable way of continuing with the herd immunity strategy.

    The gearing up of Nightingale hospitals in a massive way seems to suggest that the government are expecting massive rises in numbers of sick needing hospital treatment.

    The UK does not have the capacity to do the mass testing required to do contact tracing. The methods used by South Korea would not be acceptable in the UK. Having 100000 tests per day is merely a political dream. Testing capacity will be nowhere near 100000 per day by the end of April.

    I think the government will be happy with reporting 1000 dead per day. The figure is bogus because it does not reflect all deaths due to covid19.

    I do not share the optimistic view that a vaccine will be available before 18 months.
     
    shakes1616 likes this.
  13. shakes1616

    shakes1616 Established commenter

    What do you mean it does not reflect all deaths due to Covid19? Do you mean the figure should be more than 1000?
     
  14. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    Mark Stevenson, chief operating officer at Thermo Fisher Scientific, who are supplying the tests, was on the radio this morning saying that they will have no problem in supplying the UK with 100,000 tests a day - they manufacture 5 million a day. They control the whole supply chain, including swabs and chemicals. He said that the three (4?) new huge laboratories in Milton Keynes and elsewhere for analysing the tests are expected to open in the next few weeks.
     
  15. lanokia

    lanokia Star commenter

    Saw a report of a care home with 15 dead, 5 of whom had tested positive for Covid... but none of them were included in the overall deaths count.

    So if other care homes are in a similar situation...
     
    chelsea2 and sbkrobson like this.
  16. shakes1616

    shakes1616 Established commenter

    How can 15 die at the same time in the same care home? Unbelievable
     
  17. shakes1616

    shakes1616 Established commenter

    Are these tests accurate? Matt Hancock said last week he won't allow any antibody tests until they are proven accurate.
     
    border_walker likes this.
  18. stopwatch

    stopwatch Lead commenter

    Am I correct in thinking that none of those dying in care homes are included in the statistics?
     
    Scintillant likes this.
  19. moscowbore

    moscowbore Star commenter

    That is correct. Scotland quotes figures including those who die outside of hospital.
     
  20. moscowbore

    moscowbore Star commenter

    On another day this would be a national outcry. It still should be. Care homes and the people in them who look after the vulnerable are being forgotten.
     

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