https://www.tes.com/news/GCSE-results-2020-teacher-grades-ignored Most of this summer's grades will be based on statistical modelling of pupil prior attainment, schools’ historic performance data and the rank order of pupils in every subject submitted by schools to exam boards, sources say. The exception will be where there are subjects with no more than five entries in a school. In these cases, pupils will be awarded their teacher-assessed grades, as the statistical modelling would be inaccurate with such a small cohort. And for entries in school subject cohorts of between five to 15 students, teacher-assessed grades will play a role in the calculation, alongside historic school data and pupils' prior attainment. Teacher-assessed grades will also be used in calculations for schools with little or no historical data of their performance - for example, free schools where pupils this year are their first GCSE cohort. But for the rest – which will include most results in the mass entry subjects that make up a huge portion of GCSE results – teacher-assessed grades will not be used, Tes understands. At A level, for large entry subjects such as chemistry, history and mathematics, one exam board has told Tes that on average 60 per cent of grades will have been calculated using a statistical model, rather than using teacher-assessed grades. However, in smaller entry subjects, for example, classical Greek, less than 10 per cent of the grades would have been calculated using the statistical model, with most awarded based on teacher assessment. Barnaby Lenon, chairman of the Independent Schools Council, said Ofqual had not been able to use teacher-assessed grades as they had been too generous. "Every school in the country can expect their results to be quite similar to last year, so any notion that one group is going to do well out of this or do better is completely misplaced. They are going to be the same as last year, broadly speaking," he said. "The teacher-assessed grades are not being used in the calculation of the grades this year. It’s a combination of the historical record and the rank orders. All the centre-assessed grades were submitted. "Now, because they were inflated by 9 or 10 per cent, particularly at grades 4 at GCSE and B at A level, and because Ofqual does not know which schools have inflated unreasonably and which schools have not, they cannot use that data. "If they used [teacher-assessed grades] they would be very unfair, because some schools will have been more optimistic than others and secondly because they’re trying to be fair to last year’s students and next year’s students and not therefore inflate the results this year."