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How do you think coronavirus will effect supply teaching next year ?

Discussion in 'Supply teaching' started by NQThopeful, May 8, 2020.

  1. NQThopeful

    NQThopeful New commenter

    Just wanting to hear different peoples opinions really. I know nothing can be certain.
     
  2. a1976

    a1976 Established commenter

    A lot on here believe that supply will be virtually non-existant for the foreseeable future as this virus is likely to bring on a recession. I do tend to believe that that we are headed for a recession although I think it will be a short (but sharp) one. After everyone gets back to work and consumer confidence raises, things may resemble our economy in 2013-15. But during this time, I see cutbacks. However, I do believe schools will be extremely chaotic to work in after students return. I certainly wouldn't want to manage a classroom full of restless teens who have forgotten how to conduct themselves in a classroom and school environment. I wouldn't want to have to sort out records, safety procedures, attend all those extra meetings and 'catchups sessions'. I see a lot not wanting to go back and I see a lot burning out and throwing in the towels very quickly. It was the top layer of hell before the virus. I expect when schools resume, it will be the bottom layer or close to it.
     
    tonymars, pepper5 and BertieBassett2 like this.
  3. Deirds

    Deirds Senior commenter

    Unless children go for the novelty of structure in the day?

    Yes, I am being somewhat optimistic...

    Can't see there being much work for teachers who want to be paid, but plenty of work for unpaid volunteers.
     
  4. elvispenhaligon

    elvispenhaligon Occasional commenter

    The recession is going to be mega. I think we've not really started it.

    I run a company which works in a field where I speak to a lot of people who are in business and know people who are. There are a lot of anecdotes. Companies are hitting the wall in a massive way. There will be a lot of people losing their jobs. Banks will want bigger deposits. It's a mess.

    Everything down here is based on tourism. If we don't open for the summer in a meaningful (non social distancing way) it's game over. Many many firms will hit the wall and then commercial property will as well. Everyone piled into that a few years ago and a lot of it is financed. Cue that hitting the wall.

    Bail out the banks again.

    The government with their grants for businesses (but only if you have a premises) was a bung to commercial property. These loans are another gift to the banks.

    The furlough business only applies to some. Vast swathes of people have had no support and will be hitting the wall.

    Then we hear that lockdown will be extended, but we need the schools to reopen and they'll just go on strike.

    We see september as a magic time when everything will be back to normal. If we don't bite the bullet now, we will be biting it then. What then? More strikes and more not returning to work.

    Since there are quite a lot of old and sick teachers, I think supply will be fine.

    I spoke to the head of my school (where I'm covering a long term HOD) and he is keen on getting back to work ASAP for the students.

    The unions are starting to bellyache and then need to be disbanded.
     
  5. NQThopeful

    NQThopeful New commenter

    Interesting to hear everyone’s responses.I myself am quite optimistic about supply from September onwards, I feel if anything supply teachers may be in more demand than ever before with teachers needing to self isolate etc.
     
  6. sharon7482

    sharon7482 Occasional commenter

    I think it's an absolute joke that you can separate health and the financial situation. Non distancing summer season. No one has a hope and it is just the way it is.

    Many people all over, doing many things, will never return to their jobs. This will open new avenues. Old jobs will go. New jobs will start.

    When your going through hell, keep going, the idea to turn back and hope for the best is a recipe for disaster. I dont even want to think about what will happen in certain states of America.
     
  7. peakster

    peakster Star commenter

    You won't want to hear this but I suspect that day-to-day supply at least will be essentially dead for a long time to come.

    Long term - there will be positions available.
     
    bella2891, BertieBassett2 and pepper5 like this.
  8. john1207

    john1207 New commenter

    I think there could be potential for both short-term (whilst trying to recruit long term)and long-term supply as a lot of international teachers have left and it is unlikely they will return anytime soon given present climate.
     
    BertieBassett2 and pepper5 like this.
  9. sharon7482

    sharon7482 Occasional commenter

    Or a lot will have stayed because they cannot get out but it will make them rethink their choices being so far from home.
     
    pepper5 likes this.
  10. john1207

    john1207 New commenter

    I would have thought a.lot would have got out as they were encouraging repatriation before and during lockdown. Also some considered Boris was too slow in going lockdown compared to other countries...this would have encouraged them to leave..I know teachers who left Australia NZ SA europe fairly.quickly.
     
    pepper5 likes this.
  11. elvispenhaligon

    elvispenhaligon Occasional commenter

    I've had a job for a few months, where I've been covering a guy who is off because of pneumonia and then tests flagged a blood anomaly. He's not coming back to work.

    The deputy HOD has something wrong with her and she can't come back. Another science staff is unhealthy. The chief labtech is old and the young girl has something vital removed and she can't work either. That's in a dept of about 8 staff.

    Each school, assuming we are not on some sort of crazy rota thing where school doesn't happen in a full time way is going to take a load of staff. You can bet your bottom dollar that if anyone is asked to cover for sick colleagues there will be unions and striking involved. That's a non starter. They are going to need supply if they are going back to school.

    However, I have just read the gruniad and the cover story is that before we go back to school, unions want track and trace to be active.

    This is an utterly rhetarded idea. Now, it is the equivalent of taking a spark detector into a barn of petrol soaked hay. If we are going to make sparks in the barn, we need to move the hay into sensible sized piles and try and burn it outside. (for want of a better analogy)

    Once again, the unions want the moon on a stick and if they go on strike (which they will, because the moon is not available on a stick) there will be hell up. Outside of the public sector and this idiocy go round of scientific advice based on shonky models, people are hitting the wall and they will be losing the roofs over their heads.

    And bl00dy unions have got the fricking nerve to start playing politics, because that's what it's about. I can't stand the tories, but this is just making trouble for the hell of it, under the guise of being sharing/caring.

    The unions need to be taken to bits over this. Maggie style.
     
    Last edited: May 9, 2020
  12. sharon7482

    sharon7482 Occasional commenter

    The do it in other countries.
     
  13. HS65

    HS65 Occasional commenter

    Christ how many of these threads are you going to bleat about unions on?
     
    Googler, steviepal and pepper5 like this.
  14. SineField

    SineField Occasional commenter

    People forget that unions are political machines as well.

    There is the overwhelming feeling when looking at this situation, especially in the UK and US, that the unions (in several industries) are actively behaving in a way that will worsen the economic situation. This then creates the cult of welfare state dependancy that enables left wing parties to flourish like weeds.

    Its simple economics.....everyone must get back to work ASAP.
     
    BertieBassett2 and pepper5 like this.
  15. historygrump

    historygrump Star commenter Forum guide

    I have done supply for a number of years and suspect that up to September may be quiet and usually is at this time of year, if schools return and classes sizes are reduced this may generate the need for supply teachers, in that there will be a shortage of staff to do so. In the long-term there mat be a move to recruit more CS, but supply will continue and could possibly increase, a form of social distancing becomes the norm,in that the days of classes of 30 students may be at a end. However I may be wrong and finance will be an issue, in determining the use of supply.
     
    peakster, BertieBassett2 and pepper5 like this.
  16. elvispenhaligon

    elvispenhaligon Occasional commenter

    All of them, because they are absolute cts.

    It's a time for unity and working together, not this fkery.
     
  17. gmailcom

    gmailcom New commenter

    Don't forget all those couples who have been locked up together for over two months.

    There will be LOTS of maternity going!
     
  18. peakster

    peakster Star commenter

    Lots of divorces too.
     
  19. greeneyes

    greeneyes Occasional commenter

    I think pregnant women are still going to remain in the shielded category?
     
    Googler and pepper5 like this.
  20. ct186

    ct186 New commenter

    My crystal ball says (or I’ve been staring at my goldfish bowl for too long!)

    > Short-term day to day supply will probably be low to dead until October. My reasoning being the latest government guidelines are recommending 1 teacher to be fixed with 1 group of children. Us day to day supply teachers would be classed as “super-spreaders” jumping from class to class and school to school, so a big no no, but that doesn't mean there won't be some medium - long term work.
    > The first term back in September is on the whole the quietest part of year as everyone’s had their holidays and not sick. You might get called in to cover the odd staff training.
    > I’m assuming half or even less of students on roll will be attending school(for the time being) so that means half the teachers required? Less supply teachers required for now until end of term?
    > Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland are not opening shop; so supply is going to be quiet there.
    > The Unions, headteachers and parents from various polls point to not opening(no supply) in the immediate future. Let’s see how hard they pull in this tug-o-war with government.

    Then again to balance the view for more supply work:
    > There was a recruitment and retention crisis going on well before Covid-19
    > I think the stat is 1 in 4 NQTs leave within the first 5 years
    > Is there going to be a shortage of NQTs this year signing up to agencies and applying for work as most of them won’t have completed their courses/final placement? Which could mean lots of work for us regular supply teachers come autumn term(subject to Covid-19 conditions)?
     
    pepper5 likes this.

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