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Exiting lockdown - am I being thick?

Discussion in 'Personal' started by Doitforfree, Apr 8, 2020.

  1. Doitforfree

    Doitforfree Star commenter

    China is reporting that it has no new domestic Covid-19 deaths, and is starting to remove restrictions. At some point we will have to lift restrictions, and the same will apply in all other countries. Is there any way, other than if and when we get a vaccine, of avoiding most people eventually getting this disease? Am I missing something? It's not possible that China either has no infection at all now or that it can keep it from coming back in. Isn't the reduction in deaths in any country only due to the restrictions? The disease hasn't been eliminated. Will there have to be a cycle of lockdown and easing for months or years, spreading the need for healthcare, until enough people have had it?
  2. border_walker

    border_walker Lead commenter

    Probably will need to do that with hopefully more testing as it gets ramped up.A vaccine is needed, plus antibody tests that are more accurate than the present ones. Plus suspect that lockdown won't be on / off, but a more graduated approach e.g. open more shops with distancing measures but keep hospitality closed.
  3. peakster

    peakster Star commenter

    Austria would seem to have the correct approach.
    towncryer and EmanuelShadrack like this.
  4. Jude Fawley

    Jude Fawley Star commenter

    I'd say three months with no new cases before people are no longer told to STAY AT HOME. No travelling outside the country for another six months even if the destination is COVID 19 free.

    Personally, I'm here at home with no plans of going anywhere until 6th July minimum.

    After Easter, I'm going through everything I have in the house re food and setting myself a ration for as long as the food will last. I've got about twelve litres of UHT and two cans of coffemate so milk can be dismissed and I'll drink black tea after that.

    When I was on the dole with no money it was easier for me to end up starving. What with the bank's money, I can now just stick it on the plastic. Severe discipline is required.
  5. Aquamarina1234

    Aquamarina1234 Star commenter

    Am I right in thinking that we won't be allowing any flights from China into this country? Please tell me I am.
    Not that it stops them flying somewhere else and taking an onward flight.
    agathamorse likes this.
  6. Jude Fawley

    Jude Fawley Star commenter

    I can't see why the Chinese nationals would want to come here what with us having COVID 19.

    British nationals returning home from China on the 'run for home' principle will probably be let in.

    But, I think there will come a day soon when even British nationals abroad will be left to their fate.

    It seems the government is doing all it can.

    I just have to trust in them and stay at home.

    I do think I should do something to help. After the 17th April I'll feel I'm clear and have either had COVID 19 or not had it or not got it.

    Maybe I'm a back-up volunteer and don't know it yet.
  7. WB

    WB Senior commenter

    Could you give more details?

    I have no idea how we get out of this other than a period of alternating lockdowns and open ups to control the speed at which the virus spreads.
    monicabilongame likes this.
  8. Jesmond12

    Jesmond12 Star commenter

    This is what the eminent Professor Karol Sikora thinks:

    If, as I believe, we have reached the peak of infections, the focus will soon turn to how we can safely escape the lockdown.

    This is my opinion on how it could be done safely. (If peak NHS activity is this weekend and people continue to behave themselves.)

    April 27th-

    Get shops and businesses of less than 50 people back open.

    It's great news we've seen this happening elsewhere in Europe.

    Keep the vulnerable shielded till June, but stop the isolation of families.
    May 4th-

    Remove the lockdown.

    Open schools, public transport and remove wide scale social distancing.

    Extreme caution would still be required but I believe this is possible.

    June 1st-

    Allow international travel and public events/mass gatherings.

    (Liverpool fans - don't ask me how this impacts the football season!)
    The lockdown is working - we are flattening the curve.

    But we need to see an exit strategy.

    With more testing, no mutation of the virus and compliance with the rules I think this is a feasible timetable.

    During this crisis I have remained an optimist- let's hope I'm right. 5/5
  9. Ivartheboneless

    Ivartheboneless Star commenter

    It is probably an economics thing. Whats a few more deaths when the economy needs to get back up and running? This was the thought behind "herd immunity".
    Sally006 likes this.
  10. gainly

    gainly Star commenter

    That seems wildly optimistic to me. If schools reopen on May 4th there would have been no reason for cancelling exams.
  11. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    Here's what I posted on Monday on the now locked thread, about the Austrian exit strategy:

    Small shops, DIY stores and garden centres to open first, then shopping centres and hairdressers a fortnight later, and finally restaurants, hotels and other service providers to open gradually from two weeks after that. The stay-at-home curfew will continue for a while and no big events allowed until late June.

    The above plan is proposed to start on 14th May with small shops. No date has yet been set for Austrian schools to re-open.
  12. eleanorms

    eleanorms Occasional commenter

    Already in our town there are more people driving and on the streets. Okay, still sticking to the rules, but bending them. There will come a time when lockdown just starts to leak through so many holes that it is failing. A gradual, slow lifting would solve that. The government is being clear, this is slowing the virus, not supressing it. I think many European countries will observe Austria for a couple of weeks then slowly copy.
    towncryer likes this.
  13. Scintillant

    Scintillant Star commenter

    No point lifting a lockdown until you can test and contact trace at the required level.

    People's lax attitude to this virus has already cost many, many lives.

    Remember what "the science" was telling us about the need to lockdown, the duration necessary, and the dangers ahead? Well that science hasn't changed. There are no short cuts.
  14. Doitforfree

    Doitforfree Star commenter

    But surely we have only reached a peak because of lockdown? As soon as restrictions are lifted then infections will shoot up again. Why would they not? All we've done is reduce the spread by physical distancing. We haven't done anything to change the situation generally, as there's no treatment and no vaccine.
    Catgirl1964 likes this.
  15. Doitforfree

    Doitforfree Star commenter

    I agree on one level. But lockdown itself costs lives and is unsustainable as a long term solution.
    towncryer and border_walker like this.
  16. Oscillatingass

    Oscillatingass Star commenter

    Except the revision programme has had to be abandoned so the results would be disappointing.
  17. Scintillant

    Scintillant Star commenter

    How many lives has lockdown cost so far?
  18. Scintillant

    Scintillant Star commenter

  19. EmanuelShadrack

    EmanuelShadrack Star commenter

    Absolutely. We need to have widespread reliable testing in place as a minimum, just like the other countries which have successfully contained the outbreak.

    Not just fanciful "targets" too, that can be used to quote from in bitesize headlines. Actual real action and results are what's needed.
    Laphroig likes this.
  20. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    Austria's decision is certainly very puzzling, considering they have had considerably more cases of Covid-19 per capita than the UK.

    I notice, also, that while they are not re-opening schools for lessons, the school exams in May will go ahead as planned.

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