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Exaggerated Exam Predictions

Discussion in 'Education news' started by ridleyrumpus, Jun 24, 2020.

  1. ridleyrumpus

    ridleyrumpus Star commenter

  2. phlogiston

    phlogiston Star commenter

    Possibly not the only school to do this.
    That's why universities make conditional offers based on actual results (in normal times).
  3. ScienceGuy

    ScienceGuy Established commenter

    I suspect lots of schools do this - this school just wrote it into its policy! It will be interesting (if it ever comes out) to see which schools have most exaggerated student performance this year.
  4. colacao17

    colacao17 Senior commenter

    Someone made this point in an earlier thread I think, but it's very difficult to make predictions fairly.

    In a normal year, I know that X of my students could get an A/A* on a good day, I know that not all of them will have a good day and that not all of those X will get it. In a normal year, that sorts itself out, they do their stuff in the exam room and it's all on them.

    This year is different. I know that X of them could have got an A/A*, and know that not all of those X would have done. But mock results and class tests don't necessarily tell me which ones would have had a good day in May/June and which might not. I think that leads to over-prediction. I tried to rank mine for the right statistics, ie a reasonable number of As and A*s, but it really didn't feel good ranking others as Bs when I knew that, in a normal year, they might have pulled it off.

    Not sure I've expressed this very well, but I'm sure many of you will understand having had to do the same yourselves.
    phlogiston and strawbs like this.
  5. ScienceGuy

    ScienceGuy Established commenter

    All you can do when making predictions is to be as fair as possible. Exams themselves are not perfectly fair - a slightly different choice of questions could alter the grades achieved by student (especially around the borderline). Equally it is impossible for anyone to perfectly match the order that students would have achieved (apart from possibly exams like Art with a large amount of coursework).

    All we could do, as teachers, is to take into account all the information we had and use it, as well as trying to reduce personal biases.

    At this point in time, Imam now looking forward to seeing how good a job I did (in addition to my own classes, I was responsible for the overall ranking of 300 students across all the Science GCSEs).

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