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Daily Mail claims these two statements are 'essentially the same', are they right?

Discussion in 'Mathematics' started by ian60, Jan 28, 2012.

  1. ian60

    ian60 New commenter

    From this article
    Half way down it states:
    The offending paragraph states: ‘While the majority of homosexuals are
    not involved in paedophilia, it is of grave concern that there are a
    disproportionately greater number of homosexuals among paedophiles.’

    It then follows this up in the next paragraph with:
    However, the Home Office also made essentially the same point in a
    document it published, which states: ‘Twenty to 33 per cent of child sexual
    abuse is homosexual in nature and about 10 per cent mixed.’

    Regardless of whether either statistic is correct, I am not comfortable with the 'essentially the same point' bit.
    Am I being a bit crass and just over-reacting to the DM.

    Sorry about the mad formatting.

  2. Karvol

    Karvol Occasional commenter

    Ahhh, the Daily Hate strikes again.
    Wouldn't both of these statistics mean that the majority of abuse is carried out by heterosexuals?
  3. I think the point is that if roughly 10% of the population (as it the accepted statistic) is homosexual then only 10% of paedophiles should be. So, a greater percentage of paedophiles are gay. So, if this is the case, then yes actually in some ways they are saying the same thing.
    In my personal opinion this actually suggests three things:
    The percentage of the population who engage in same sex sex (as opposed to identifying as gay or bi which is different) is much closer to 30-50% than 10%
    paedophiles are more likely to be gay. This is not the same as gay people are more likely to be paedophiles.
    heterosexual paedophilia attracts much less attention and is less likely to be reported, particularly in cases of fairly young men messing around with girls of 14 or 15.
    My only evidence for this is my own experience which, fortunately, is not great. But I do believe in these quite strongly.
  4. Piranha

    Piranha Star commenter

    This is a mathematical observation, not a comment on the truth of the Daily Mail's story. Surely, if paedophiles are more likely to be gay then it is the same as saying that gay people are more likely to be paedophiles. If P(A given B) > P(A) then P(A & B)/P(B) > P(A) which implies that P(A & B)/P(A) > P(B) so P(B given A) >P(B).
    None of this justifies the "grave concern" mentioned by the Daily Mail, which echos other scare stories about minority groupings being more likely to commit crimes.

  5. hmm - the home office report is quoted as saying that 33% or
    whatever it was of paedolphilia is homosexual in nature - i wonder how
    carefully worded that is, for that doesn't necessarily mean 33% of
    paedophiles are gay - male rape, for example, can be comitted by men
    who otherwise would identify themselves as heterosexual, pointing up how
    rape is about power, not sex.
    i have an american study at the back of my mind that said the percentage of gay and straights who were paedophiles was identical. but i couldn't track it down to save my life, and the dm gives no reference for its study, and i don't have an hour to spare
    two further thoughts
    1. as a christian myself, i get so ticked off about nasty-minded people getting themselves into a mess and then bleating they are discriminated against for being christian
    2. ian - why were you reading the daily mail?

  6. either i can't use the 'edit' function properly or i'm not allowed to use the word s e x

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