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Creating Perspective

Discussion in 'Personal' started by Nellyfuf2, Sep 22, 2020.

  1. Nellyfuf2

    Nellyfuf2 Lead commenter

    Working hard me, at being positive. Not that kind of positive. Cheerful I mean.
    Just looking at statistics for my area - really local not city wide. We have had 2 deaths back in the spring from Covid, 2 more in the next area which is another inner city area and 3 up the road which although has pockets of the most deprived areas nationally is overall a more fortunate locality.

    In 2019 there were a similar number of traffic accidents fatalities and serious injuries to the total number of Covid deaths in this city. (So far - but let us have hope.)

    https://covid.graphics/country/gbr.html
    Let us hope that all will be well.
     
    BelleDuJour and nizebaby like this.
  2. coffeekid

    coffeekid Star commenter

    Thought this was another art thread. I was wrong!
     
  3. racroesus

    racroesus Star commenter

    Even your avatar looks disappointed.
     
    Jamvic, cissy3 and coffeekid like this.
  4. cissy3

    cissy3 Star commenter

    Me too!

    It took some time to get the hang of in the west..but I like these qualities.

    [​IMG]
     
    artboyusa, sbkrobson and coffeekid like this.
  5. racroesus

    racroesus Star commenter

    Aye, considering shoulders and naked women.
     
    cissy3 likes this.
  6. coffeekid

    coffeekid Star commenter

    Love the wee dogs gobbling up the scraps.
     
    cissy3 likes this.
  7. Nellyfuf2

    Nellyfuf2 Lead commenter

    That was painted maybe when the earth was still flat though?
     
    EmanuelShadrack likes this.
  8. racroesus

    racroesus Star commenter

    Has it buckled like my brake discs?
     
    ajrowing likes this.
  9. Nellyfuf2

    Nellyfuf2 Lead commenter

    The world?
     
  10. racroesus

    racroesus Star commenter

    The flat Earth.
     
  11. Nellyfuf2

    Nellyfuf2 Lead commenter

    On the flat earth, the jolly one I inhabit, where the giant turtle... no not that one Ahem.
    In two council wards we have a death rate of 0.02 per 100. That is what I found. I was googling how many deaths round this way so that I could be more gloom and doom but what I found was more heartening. Yes other people were ill with Covid - I know a few (yup not tested - they didn't make it to hospital ).
    To be honest, round here some places - you would not have known it was a lock down so I really thought we would have a lot more deaths. Especially since a lot of housing is overcrowded, and a lot of people are key workers and many households have no gardens just bin yards etc.
    It wasn't good news for the 2 in 10,000 that died I agree.
    As for info on Long Covid well that's just not published in the same way although if we are to worry about it properly then really it should be made public.
    So that was the death rate here and mainly before masks and also before the pubs etc opened.
    I also looked at Cornwall death rates thinking that with so much tourism this year - as there was on the Yorkshire Coast, that there would have been a real mess with cases and deaths but it looks fairly calm considering all the people that would have gone there and mixed in restaurants etc.
     
  12. LiamD

    LiamD Occasional commenter

    Yes, but that was when the disease had been suppressed by three months of lockdown. The perspective now is somewhat different.

    This is about the limit of my art appreciation
    [​IMG]
     
  13. racroesus

    racroesus Star commenter

    So how do you know? How do you distinguish covid from cold or flu?
    I don't think the death rate is as important as the rate of absenteeism due to illness.
     
  14. racroesus

    racroesus Star commenter

    How do you distinguish between covid and a cold or covid and a flu?
    Johns Hopkins are giving ~40000 deaths from about 400000 cases which is around 10% death rate from known infections or associated with covid so maybe your friends had something less lethal, like a cold?
     
  15. Nellyfuf2

    Nellyfuf2 Lead commenter

    Quite.
    But the covid cases that were hospitalised and therefore tested ( don't know how many there were of those in the area I pulled out the deaths from) were not from a vaccum - they were from a community where they say, the virus will spread.
    So those 20 deaths ( which I rounded up to make calculations easier) were maybe associated with other people being infected. And the deaths were during lockdown - maybe infected before lockdown. They were not likely to be people that had come back from Italy or Spain etc. Maybe Spain but we don't know. So there will have been other infections in this particular community. Without knowing the infection rate (cases) for that period - which we don't know, - the death rate per infection is not knowable.
    None of the people I think might have had Covid thought it was just a cold.
     
  16. racroesus

    racroesus Star commenter

    But you don't know because they weren't tested. You don't know the rate. Where is the ~20 coming from? It's a jumble. The JHU figures are for known cases and deaths with an association with covid and that is ~10% death rate which is probably too high since, probably, many infections aren't recorded as you have said. The problem with covid is how many take sick-leave compared to those who took sick leave when there was no covid.
     
  17. Nellyfuf2

    Nellyfuf2 Lead commenter

    The deaths figure for the two wards was 10 - with a population of around 50,000 - 25% of that population children and young people under 25.
     
  18. Nellyfuf2

    Nellyfuf2 Lead commenter

    Because we did not have capacity to test in early summer the infection rate recorded on graphs is low then is now rising greatly. So comparison between death rates and infection rates are skewed. Inversely related.
    It would appear a much higher infection rate must have been around during and before lockdown. To have produced such a high death rate.
     
  19. Nellyfuf2

    Nellyfuf2 Lead commenter

    If you imagine a case rate above the death rate peaks on the graph - the real infection rate - it would be more realistic.
     
  20. racroesus

    racroesus Star commenter

    But you don't die from covid unless you are infected with covid. I am ignoring people who die because resources are being targeted at covid and so on

    10 in 50000
    40 in 200000
    40000 in 200000000, to achieve figures around what the UK has reported, the UK population must be about 200 million going by your local population rate of 10 in 50000.

    Else, if the UK had your sample wards' rates,

    10 in 50000
    10000 in 50000000
    14000 in 65000000 (figures approximate)

    So your sample has a much lower rate than the UK. Small numbers also cause problems. The picture is complex.
     

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