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Covid Mk II

Discussion in 'Personal' started by Scintillant, Sep 13, 2020.

  1. Scintillant

    Scintillant Star commenter

    Well, we had a chance to get cases right down over summer. We were told what would very likely happen if we didn't.

    And here we are.



    So what do we reckon?

    What next? Where do we go from here?

    How do we address it this time around?
  2. Doitforfree

    Doitforfree Star commenter

    Unless we had eliminated the virus and closed our borders, wouldn't the result have been the same, just a bit later?
  3. Doitforfree

    Doitforfree Star commenter

    Or stayed locked down forever, or until we had a vaccine. Isn't it inevitable that the virus will circulate if there's any kind of mixing of people?
  4. red_observer

    red_observer Star commenter

    We have to reduce mixing. Simple as that.
    Ellakits, ilovesooty, Jamvic and 6 others like this.
  5. WB

    WB Star commenter

    Agree completely.

    Sadly the country is full of (mainly young) idiots who think because they are unlikely to die it's safe for them to go and mix freely. And when I say mix freely I mean spread the virus far and wide freely to give it a better chance of getting those who it might kill.
  6. Scintillant

    Scintillant Star commenter

    monicabilongame likes this.
  7. colacao17

    colacao17 Lead commenter

    We've seen how it can be dealt with effectively.

    Vietnam - immediate and full lockdown in March. Strict quarantine for those suspected to have had contact with positive cases. A handful of cases, no deaths. Then in the summer, an outbreak in the centre of the country. This time there was community transmission. This time there were deaths. it was centred on a hospital and by the time it was detected several vulnerable people had been in contact and were infected. But again, immediate and full lockdown, travel restrictions, strict quarantine. And a month or so later they were opening up again, having got it under control.

    New Zealand did the same - very strict protection measures at the beginning, was able to get back to more like normal more quickly will less damage to health, less disruption to the education of the children and less damage to the economy.

    UK has chosen to do things differently.
  8. colacao17

    colacao17 Lead commenter

    Sticking adolescents 30 at a time into poorly ventilated classrooms doesn't send the signal that this is something they need to be concerned about. I must admit, I found myself thinking at times last week "what's the point" as I was about to move the required distance away from someone in the supermarket. If I catch it, it's far more likely that I'll get it at school - just like those young people.
  9. Jude Fawley

    Jude Fawley Star commenter

    Jude Predicts (with alacrity).

    Police officers and other emergency workers physically attacked over COVID-19 policy and implementation with at least one death by early October 2020.

    A full nationwide lockdown by 18th October 2020.

    Riots in most larger cities by the end of November 2020.

    Opposition politicians, supported by celebrities off the telly, publicly defying aspects of government advice re COVID-19 by early December 2020.

    50,000 COVID-19 deaths by Christmas 2020.

    100,000 COVID-19 deaths by Easter.
  10. Doitforfree

    Doitforfree Star commenter

    While true, Vietnam is considered something of anomaly. The may be other reasons why they had such a low rate. New Zealand are now effectively locked down until there's a vaccine. That might never happen. Or it might take a long time. And they are so isolated that they were able to contemplate doing that. I'm not convinced it would ever have been workable here.
    peter12171 and Kandahar like this.
  11. WB

    WB Star commenter

    I thought that many times last week. We have put vast amounts of energy, time and money into making our school "Covid Secure" but it isn't and it never can be. The nature of schools and children make it impossible However, people going to raves is in a different league to opening schools.
    Jamvic, bonxie, nizebaby and 2 others like this.
  12. Sally006

    Sally006 Lead commenter

    I don’t get all this nonsense in people saying the government didn’t encourage people to travel- they did! They wanted some relief for the travel industry and local tourism. The economy was put first. Now many will say that’s how it should have been but don’t pretend that what we have now as a result isn’t going to have an impact - it will.

    People want kids back in schools, rightly so, face to face with their teachers, rightly so but what no one seems to be factoring is the on going and inevitable disruption as kids and staff go off and self isolate. What sort of education is that going to be? This will go on unless mixing outside of school by the kids and adults stops and stops quickly. It’s either that or people are going to die again.
  13. peakster

    peakster Star commenter

    I don't believe we have much option now but to keep going and see what happens.

    We simply cannot lock down again.
  14. WB

    WB Star commenter

    I'm more interested in how Germany has done so well. Comparing very different cultures, locations and sizes of nations is difficult. Germany is a good comparison to the UK.

    They have done better. Angela Merkel has a PHd in Chemistry.
  15. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    I have said before that Devi Sridhar was not being realistic to think that anyone could go for "zero Covid". Even countries that have had only very minor initial outbreaks are seeing cases flare up again.

    The UK is almost certainly going to see a second peak with new cases already running at over 3000 a day and hospital admissions starting to rise.
    alex_teccy likes this.
  16. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    Yes, but only to travel within the UK. The Foreign Office has consistently advised British nationals against all but essential international travel. How much of the current rise in cases is due to idiots who cannot seem to do without their overseas holidays, I don't know. The majority of infections are, I believe, still within the home.
    alex_teccy likes this.
  17. Scintillant

    Scintillant Star commenter

    We know. It happened the last time. Only now we are taking much weaker measures to prevent spread.

    As hospitals fill up again, there will be the knock-on issues surrounding other non-covid conditions, People will stop going out, school attendance will fall, etc. People will die.

    Not good.
  18. sodalime

    sodalime Star commenter

    But perhaps as a counterbalance to the weak measures, we are better prepared on a collective and individual level - hand sanitiser dispensers at the door, care homes know the drill and can now protect staff and residents, hospitals have robust infection control measures in place and are better placed to treat covid patients and save lives, PPE is readily available . . . . but with schools open this time round, maybe the plus points will hardly make a dent in the infection rate and resulting mortalities.
    Personally I think the country will be locked down by stealth, one local authority or health board area at a time, whilst trying to keep schools and workplaces open as much as possible, and restricting social freedoms more. ETA: but now we all have restrictions fatigue, whereas in March/April there was genuine fear and obedience.
  19. peakster

    peakster Star commenter

    Already 1 in 9 of the population is affected by local lock downs.
  20. sodalime

    sodalime Star commenter

    Yip. How long until it's 2 in 9, 3 in 9 . . . the numbers will creep up, like they have with France's red zones, until it's a national lock down by another name. Government can deny up until the last minute that it's national.

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