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Covid-19 Statistics

Discussion in 'Personal' started by florian gassmann, Jul 5, 2020.

  1. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    It doesn't seem to have attracted much attention, but the daily statistics for Covid-19 testing now differentiate between tests available and tests actually processed:

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

    So, 219,544 tests (of all four types) were made available yesterday.
    171,540 tests (of all four types) were actually processed.

    Latest stats from the Covid-19 dashboard:

    624 new cases yesterday
    67 Covid-associated deaths

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2.190994410.1197627990.1593756196-38110307.1582824066
     
    chelsea2, George_Randle and nomad like this.
  2. peakster

    peakster Star commenter

    This data has been missing for over a month and now mysteriously reappears.

    Do you believe these numbers ?
     
    EmanuelShadrack and Scintillant like this.
  3. lindenlea

    lindenlea Star commenter

    EmanuelShadrack likes this.
  4. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    If you hadn't "ignored" my posts you would know that the daily stats have not been missing - I told you where to find them. :)

    They are consistent with previous days. Positive tests, for instance, have been 890, 815, 689, 829, 576 and 544 for the previous six days (the drop to the 500s is typical of weekend lag).

    The numbers are also consistent with the huge ONS Covid Infection Survey, which estimates on the basis of testing that cases in the community have dropped considerably in the last three weeks.
     
    Last edited: Jul 5, 2020
    Kandahar, nomad and alex_teccy like this.
  5. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    Figures for Sunday 4th July have just been released:

    516 new cases confirmed by testing / 22 Covid-associated deaths

    (The low numbers are partly due to reporting lag at weekends.)
     
  6. modelmaker

    modelmaker Lead commenter

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...pril-warns-former-government-adviser-12021625

    "A further 27,000 excess deaths are "likely" between now and next April under the current approach to tackling the coronavirus pandemic, a former government chief scientific adviser says.

    Sir David King, who has been critical of the easing of lockdown measures, told Sky's Sophy Ridge On Sunday, "we need to look at the fastest route out of COVID-19" and the current one "is not right".


    He said it looked as though Downing Street's policy was to "maintain" the current level of about 3,000 new infections per day across England."
     
  7. T34

    T34 Lead commenter

    We shall have to wait and see.
    The weekly death figures for England and Wales suggest that it we are safer now than on average at the same week for the past five years!
     
  8. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    I always feel a bit sorry for "Independent SAGE" as people don't take much notice of them unless they come up with a suitably attention-grabbing headline, such as "Another 27,000 excess deaths 'likely'" - and even when they do, they have considerable difficulty in shaking off the image of being a group of disgruntled old scientists who were not considered good enough to be appointed to the real SAGE panel.

    I don't see the rationale for Sir David King's claim, or how it ties in with the point made by T34, that we are already past the point of zero excess deaths according to the ONS's weekly statistics. Nor how it ties in with the statement from the real SAGE that the number of infections in England is currently shrinking by between 2% and 5% a day.
     
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2020
  9. peakster

    peakster Star commenter

  10. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    Why should we be interested in the economics of Coronavirus testing in La Habra, California?
     
  11. Scintillant

    Scintillant Star commenter

    Lol

    Mr King was good enough to serve as Chief Scientific Adviser to our govt for several years, and had a very long and illustrious career as a world-leading scientist.

    I wouldn't describe our response and SAGE's performance as world leading, other than in disastrous decisions and numbers of dead.
     
  12. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    Yes, but Sir David King is a chemist who branched out into climate change, he's not an epidemiologist. As a good socialist, barely a day goes by without him complaining that the scientists on the Sage panel, of which he is no longer one, have got everything wrong.
     
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2020
    Kandahar likes this.
  13. LondonCanary

    LondonCanary Star commenter

    As a chemist rather than in epidemiology, medicine or public health.
     
    Kandahar and Oscillatingass like this.
  14. Morninglover

    Morninglover Star commenter

    Went shopping at a local well known supermarket - very few people wearing masks (1 in 10?) and I think I was the only one with both mask & gloves.

    Still, I noticed people gave me a wide berth - I suspect they thought I was wearing one as I was ill!!:D
     
  15. Dunteachin

    Dunteachin Star commenter

    Just worn one for an hour at the hairdresser's. Wasn't keen.
     
    chelsea2 likes this.
  16. chelsea2

    chelsea2 Star commenter

    Me neither.
    But could take it off when I was under heat while the colour processed.
    Just glad to be coloured and shorn!!
     
  17. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    Figures for Monday 5th July have just been released:

    352 new cases confirmed by testing. 16 Covid-associated deaths
    (Again, the low numbers are partly due to reporting lag at weekends.)

    As of 9am on 6 July, there have been 10,651,308 tests (either processed or sent out) across all 4 pillars in the UK. Of these, 8,157,205 tests were processed in total. 143,457 tests were made available in the preceding 24 hours, and 97,315 tests were processed.
     
  18. Scintillant

    Scintillant Star commenter

    Being a scientific adviser has many aspects to the role, and knowledge of many fields as well an excellent scientific background are necessary. Mr King was as qualified for the role as anyone. He was instrumental in realising we need to take climate change extremely seriously.

    Still, experts in public health, like Prof Devi Sridhar, are particularly worth listening to, especially as they have led successful approaches to the disease.

    I think you'll find a large number of independent scientists have looked upon the actions of the UK govt and their advisers with incredulity. As scientists. And no amount of scary terminology like "socialist" detracts from that. Rather like teachers, you don't find all that many Conservative-supporting scientists either.
     
  19. George_Randle

    George_Randle Established commenter

    Here's an article making the case for the Swedish approach and the ideas of the Nobel prize winning biophysicist Michael Levitt.

    https://jbhandleyblog.com/home/2020/6/28/secondwave


    Dr. Michael Levitt and Sweden have been right all along. The only way through COVID-19 is by achieving the modest (10-20%) Herd Immunity Threshold required to have the virus snuff itself out. The sooner politicians—and the press—start talking about HIT and stop talking about new confirmed cases, the better off we will all be. Either way, it’s likely weeks, not months, before the data of new daily deaths will be so low that the press will have to find something new to scare everyone. It’s over.
     
  20. LondonCanary

    LondonCanary Star commenter

    As we saw with official Sage that is not a characteristic of scientists. Too many modellers and academics.

    I think like teachers it depends whether they are public sector or not.
     
    Kandahar likes this.

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