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Covid-19 and schools

Discussion in 'Personal' started by Scintillant, Aug 2, 2020.

  1. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    I don't think it has. There is certainly no sign of a second peak in the UK. There is a rise in infection rates to what they were a month ago (a fairly modest level, and expected as a result of relaxing a number of lockdown measures as well as being the inevitable result of the huge increase in testing) while hospital admissions and deaths from Covid-19 have continued to decline.

    As elder_cat says, there could possibly be a second wave, rather than peak, if infection rates continue to rise over the next month, but more litkely the latest figures will just turn out to be a continuation of the first wave. There really needs to be clearer evidence (increasing NHS 111 calls, increasing - not decreasing - mortality rates, and so on) to identify anything too worrying on a a national scale (local outbreaks, of course, are a different matter and so far seem to be being successfully dealt with through local measures).
     
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2020
  2. Scintillant

    Scintillant Star commenter

    Published in last couple of days. Was reported on news.

    Guess who came out on top?
     
    Symingtons likes this.
  3. artboyusa

    artboyusa Star commenter

     
  4. Scintillant

    Scintillant Star commenter

    Do you know how highly contagious viruses transmit?

    Do you understand the growth pattern involved?
     
  5. Scintillant

    Scintillant Star commenter

    Nick Gibb lying away on Radio 4 this morning. Worth a listen to remind yourself how godawful this lot are.

    I have no confidence in them opening schools safely now. They know it can't be done, Gibb couldn't justify it, blathering on about "the science" and being skewered by Martha Kearney: "is the science different in a school" lol.

    Track and trace is poor and they are clearly lying about the numbers. Newsnigt reckoned each of the 20,000 or so people employed (for £20,000 pa each) had contacted 2 people each at the most. Some areas are now setting their own system up via GPS etc - as recommended at the start by public health experts. No masks, despite older pupils at least transmitting as adults. Even official SAGE now saying there will be a dangerous rise. John Edmunds of SAGE said government ignored advice on speed of lifting restrictions, and now they don't know what effect the separate measures taken had. He seemed jaded and ****** off.

    #shambolic
    #lies
    #misinformation
    #worldleading
     
  6. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    None of the national easements seem to have had a greatly negative effect.

    [​IMG]
     
  7. WolfPaul

    WolfPaul Occasional commenter

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53656852

    Maybe not quite as bad as you make out, Mr Scintilant.
     
  8. red_observer

    red_observer Star commenter

    I share Scintilants post on this. We have the worst kind of people in charge of this pandemic.
     
  9. WolfPaul

    WolfPaul Occasional commenter

    Any thoughts about the actual BBC article? Or doesn't it fit your agenda?
     
  10. red_observer

    red_observer Star commenter

    Sorry before I defend myself from your aggressive post what bbc article are you in about?
     
  11. WolfPaul

    WolfPaul Occasional commenter

    The one that I put a link too, and then you quoted it. Do you mean you quoted my link, but didn't actually read it?
     
  12. red_observer

    red_observer Star commenter

    Yes sorry and apologies for not reading everything you post. I didn’t realise it was a rule on this forum.
    But now I have and I do in most things I keep an open mind and hope he is right. I still feel we aren’t testing enough as other scientists say so if you are trying to claim this article is definitive then it might be playing to your agenda not mine.
    I look forwards to reading your posts much more carefully moving on as you early have a lot to say for yourself.
     
  13. WolfPaul

    WolfPaul Occasional commenter

    You don't have to read everything I post - but I'd suggest doing so if you're going to quote and comment on it.
     
  14. George_Randle

    George_Randle Senior commenter

    It's good to see that Carl Heneghan is getting some promotion by the BBC, in a welcome change from the usual carousel of fear.

    This is a point made by Prof Carl Heneghan, who heads the centre for evidence-based medicine at Oxford University.

    He says it is essential to adjust for tests being done and is concerned about what he calls "poor interpretation" of data.

    Covid cases, he says, simply aren't rising in any meaningful sense.

    And even if you just look at the raw number of positive tests, it is worth remembering that the figures seen are way way below what was happening during the peak when an estimated 100,000 infections a day were being seen.

    I've found the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine to be very helpful and balanced during the pandemic. People worried about rising cases may find this useful:

    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-cases-in-england-arent-rising-heres-why/
     
    WolfPaul and agathamorse like this.
  15. red_observer

    red_observer Star commenter

    That’s me told off then. Thanks dad.
     
  16. frangipani123

    frangipani123 Lead commenter

    I read the BBC article and found part of it particularly interesting, as he referred to an interview with David Nabarro, an interview I'd heard on Radio 4. But my takeaway was quite different so I listened to it again. Nabarro stresses the danger of the virus and how easy it would be for it to spread rapidly unless we are extremely careful and on top of track and trace. He said - 'If ...this testing and tracing and isolation just is not done properly, then you get very bad surges occurring.'

    So much is reliant on adequate testing. I did my own test a couple of weeks ago that came back negative, but I'm almost certain that the swab I took didn't make contact with my tonsils, as this is quite difficult to do. So I do wonder how many tests are actually valid, and also how many people do not take a test even though they are unwell.
     
    Catgirl1964 likes this.
  17. WolfPaul

    WolfPaul Occasional commenter

    Further quotes from Nabarro, also from the BBC:

    He later said he thinks Britain "will do really well" because there is "really good attention to where the virus is locally" and a lot of "public engagement in getting on top of it".
     
  18. frangipani123

    frangipani123 Lead commenter

    bombaysapphire and ACOYEAR8 like this.
  19. ACOYEAR8

    ACOYEAR8 Star commenter

    This is where it will all unravel. We are basing our confidence for a return to schools on something which is on paper but not in the real world -like ' bubbles 'with over 250 students in them, 3/4 of whom have siblings in the same school but cannot mix.
     
    strawbs and frangipani123 like this.
  20. WolfPaul

    WolfPaul Occasional commenter

    So why does Nabarro think that Britain will "do really well"?
     

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