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Discussion in 'Personal' started by Scintillant, Aug 2, 2020.
Thank you @artboyusa
Schools in Scotland go back full time on the 11th August.
If schools become the new super-spreaders of community infection, we'll have a 3 week head start on it all.
Big Blue Button?
If we take the approach that it's inconvenient for schools to be shut, why have we gone through all of this? Children have had their exams cancelled, missed out on leaving parties, got used to things, and yet we can't just close, or at least reduce the number in, for the Autumn term?
Now, many more parents are able to work from home. We should leave full-time school spaces only for those who can't learn from home, including vulnerable children/those who only have adults who work full-time and can't work from home in the house. Most children have at least one adult who doesn't need to work FT outside the home in their family.
Obviously, it's not ideal-but surely it's better to keep most children out if it's likely that a vaccine could arrive before Christmas? It's surely worth disrupting things for a term or two to save massive, permanent suffering? Better that a child miss a few months of education (which wouldn't be 'normal' anyway!) than they lose their parents permanently.
The idea of staggered attendance makes a lot of sense from the perspective of teachers, and those parents who are either fortunate enough to both still have a job and are actually able to do that job from home, or parents who do not need to work. But for all those outside those groups, it may simply be unworkable in real terms. For example, consider a manager who has to work out shift allocations, where the individual's availability is determined by what rota their children are on, especially if they have children of different ages at different schools. There is no way that could not have a detrimental effect on productivity.
There will undoubtedly be further outbreaks. Some may have been assisted by the opening of our schools. Others may well result from things like the illegal raves, people thronging the beaches, or the apparent disregard for social distancing we've witnessed in beer gardens when the pubs reopened, or the celebrations of the achievements of football teams by their fans. I very much doubt that schools will be the only 'super-spreaders' we need to concern ourselves with.
The economic fallout from this pandemic will be with us for a long time to come, and I think it's unlikely our generation will manage to claw its' way back to where we were, pre-Covid. So the actions we take now are more for the benefit of our children and grandchildren, if we do not want to leave them in a hole so deep they are unable to climb out of it.
The apprehension around the prospect of having to work with large numbers of students in schools again is understandable. But we need to get the country working again. It's not optional. We can't afford to keep up with measures such as furloughing. We have already seen many firms go to the wall, and more will follow in the short term. Surely, getting as many students as possible back into our schools on as regular a basis as we can manage, is key to achieving any measure of recovery?
My thoughts exactly.
My current prediction, for what it's worth, is that it will be business as usual until a lot of people know someone personally who has either died, or who has been severely debilitated. Even now there are plenty of deniers, and people not taking it seriously. There's going to be a lot of heartache and grieving in the coming 6 months.
Currently I think the way out of all this involves mass testing with quick turnarounds, and I believe this could be implemented with competent leadership. Maybe a vaccine (of some sort) will appear next year (or even before) - it's hard to say.
A little perspective...
UK COVID 19 DEATHS w/c 02/08/20
UK POPULATION: 67,886,011
And the panic continues.
Why can't people see the facts and not the hype?
There is on average a chance of less than 1 in 1500 actually meeting anyone with this bug. If you live in London or a city or a heavily ethnic community, this will be higher; if you live in a croft on a Scottish island it will be lower. (Virtually non-existent in fact.)
There is even less chance of catching it if you do meet someone, provided you don't snog/shag them or get them to cough in your face.
If you do get it, there is an 80% chance that either you won't know or you will have mild symptoms
If you do get quite ill, the chances of being seriously ill are about 25%
If, after all these remote chances and low odds you are unlucky enough to get seriously ill, your chance of actually dying, unless you have other fairly serious problems such as cancer, major BP problems, heart/lung issues or a compromised immune system, is still so low as to be almost negligible.
So the only people who need be concerned and be shielded are the very old and the already ill, and their close carers/family.
It's that simple. So people should stop getting worked up, but should relax, get plenty of exercise, fresh air and sunshine, eat and drink healthily and do their best to live as normal a life as possible.
I for one can't wait to get back to teaching in school in September - it's been a pain, all this online carp. And all my department colleagues feel the same. How the HT will let us teach is not yet decided, but he's normally very sensible and rational, so we expect some distancing, lots of testing, but to be in the classroom in a vaguely normal way.
Why do so many posters think the only purpose of opening schools is for child care? Has the idea of trying to educate children in school been abandoned?
And it's likely to be even lower than that over all time, in effect, as they put Covid down as a CoD even if you're 90 and on the way out with massive heart failure, but happen to pick it up at the end...
It's always lower at the weekend due to late reporting (as you surely know, but choose to ignore). Look at the weekly figures, and especially the numbers of new cases, and see the trends.
Getting on for 900 new cases yesterday - beginning to rise again.
There are posters on here, as there are people in wider society, who have all kinds of reasons for wishing to make this problem as big, as controversial, as horrifying, as depressing, as awful as possible and they focus on various areas in order to do this.
We saw it the very first week we began to discuss Covid on here, and little has changed since.
Interestingly, what has changed are the comparisons. When the UK seemed to be doing worse - even with dodgy figures or figures calculated in differing ways - than other EU countries, we had people on here posting alleged comparisons every day, in order to attack the UK Government.
Naturally, since the reverse began to be true, this kind of post has dried up... "By their actions shall ye know them".
It's so easy to catch out the far/anarchic left.
A whole 900 out of 68 million. Heavens above! That's 0.00132%. [Drops teacup in mad panic.] What if the person I meet in the street tomorrow has it? What shall I do?
I know, I'll hide under the stairs and never go out again.
We're still doing worse than the vast majority of European countries.... But so far we're better off than two (other) countries ruled by incompetent idiots - the USA and Brazil.
So Tories can rejoice over that if they want!
Well, that’s a massive problem. To have nearly every student as a potential transmitter of the virus, probably asymptomatically, is just going to speed up transmission when it is seeded. The higher the number of those with antibodies, the less likely that spread will become quickly exponential. Germany have done very well but that isn’t just whack a mole they need, it’s whack a mammoth.
That's actually false. If you look at deaths per million of population, the USA and Brazil are doing much better than Europe! But I know that won't stop you spreading your fake news!
Just out of interest, do you live in a croft on a Scottish island?
Educate children in school?
What a quaint notion.
A little more "perspective":
The UK has the very top spot of all nations in the world for deaths per 100,000 of the population. As an advanced, first world country with a health service that covers every citizen, how did we manage that ?