# Confidence bands on NFER Reception Baseline

Discussion in 'Headteachers' started by breadmaker, Oct 10, 2015.

1. ### breadmakerNew commenter

Hi, sorry if this is a silly question. We have just finished our about and have inputted the data which shows that our cohort average is a score of 84. NFER average is 100, but there is a 15 point confidence band either way of this. Does this then mean that because 84 is 1 less than 85, we are almost working within the average range for National Expectations, or because we are 16 short of 100, we are below, well below etc., Thanks to anyone who can help.

2. ### wanetStar commenter

Your description of the meaning of a confidence interval is more or less correct. However, don't assume that those that use these numbers will understand that.

3. ### breadmakerNew commenter

Thank you for that. In the SEF,would you then describe our children as working within, below, or well below average expectations for entry to school?

4. ### ScintillantStar commenter

@breadmaker

Confidence intervals and confidence bands are slightly different

A confidence band would be 90% or 95% etc

Tests are standardised to 100

The 15 quoted is the standard deviation.

68% of the people taking the test nationally are within one standard deviation (standardised score 85-115)

68 (+14+14) or 96% of people are within two standard deviations (standardised score 70-130)

Your pupils' average score is 84.

So you can see how that fits the picture

5. ### ScintillantStar commenter

This might help as it shows the %

Your score of 84 is just more than one SD below average at around the 15th percentile

6. ### breadmakerNew commenter

Thanks very much for taking the time to reply with these explanations.