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Climate change modelling "a fools paradise".

Discussion in 'Personal' started by lexus300, Mar 19, 2019.

  1. racroesus

    racroesus Star commenter

    Same as ours but maybe Canada and us and some others could make a difference.
  2. T34

    T34 Lead commenter

    What has happened to oxygen levels?
    What is the distribution of CO2 in the atmosphere?
    Does it vary from location to location?
  3. irs1054

    irs1054 Star commenter

    Oxygen is in long term declined over the last 1 million years though not enough to cause a problem.
    The various weather systems mix the atmosphere from one place to another quite effectively. (except for local situations)
    This makes measurements pretty consistent across the planet.
  4. lexus300

    lexus300 Star commenter

    Agreed but when the actual contribution world wide is a small fraction then our contribution is a much smaller fraction.
  5. lexus300

    lexus300 Star commenter

    The dip was preceded in each case by a large increase which has been erased to accentuate the trend line.
  6. lexus300

    lexus300 Star commenter

    Excused you mean?
  7. lexus300

    lexus300 Star commenter

    Why do you always have to personally attack?
    Where are your logical arguments or facts that have not been 'adjusted' to suit the modelling output requirement?
  8. peakster

    peakster Star commenter

    Nothing I could possibly say or come up with would shake you from the bizarre theories you espouse on here.
  9. lexus300

    lexus300 Star commenter

    Supported facts as referenced.
  10. racroesus

    racroesus Star commenter

    I only have graphs of temperature and CO2.
  11. racroesus

    racroesus Star commenter

    One belief and one fact following it.
  12. racroesus

    racroesus Star commenter

    No. Explained.
  13. peakster

    peakster Star commenter

    Carbon dioxide hits a level not seen for 3 million years. Here's what that means for climate change — and humanity.
    Scientists are sounding the alarm over the potential for catastrophic changes to our environment.
    Coal smoke and steam vapor pour out of the Bruce Mansfield Power Plant overlooking the Ohio River at dawn in Shippingport, Pennsylvania.Robert Nickelsberg / Getty Images file

    May 14, 2019, 9:39 AM GMT+1
    By Denise Chow

    In the latest bit of bad news for a planet beset by climate change, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere has climbed to a level last seen more than 3 million years ago — before humans even appeared on the rocky ball we call home.

    On Saturday, sensors at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii indicated that concentrations of the greenhouse gas — a byproduct of the burning of fossil fuels — had reached 415 parts per million (ppm), meaning that for every 1 million molecules of gas in the atmosphere, 415 were of carbon dioxide.

    Carbon dioxide traps heat from the sun, and higher levels are associated with higher global temperatures and other effects of climate change, such as rising seas and unusual weather patterns.

    The level of CO2 in the atmosphere has risen an average of 2.5 ppm per year over the past decade, reaching 400 ppm in 2013 — and the level appears likely to go higher from here.

    “We’re racing toward a state very different from the kind humans evolved in and that civilization developed in,” said Ralph Keeling, a geochemist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, California.

    The last time levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide were this high came during the Pliocene Epoch, which extended from about 5.3 million to 2.6 million years ago. During that period, average sea levels were about 50 feet higher than they are today and forests grew as far north as the Arctic, said Rob Jackson, a professor of earth system science at Stanford University. “Earth was a very different place,” he said. “You would hardly recognize the land surface, and my gosh, we don’t want to go there.”

    But there is evidence to suggest the planet is headed in that direction. If the current trajectory continues, levels of CO2 could hit 500 ppm within 30 years, a number that could mean an increase in global temperatures of at least 2 degrees Celsius (about 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit).

    “At the present pace, we could reach that well within a lot of people’s lifetimes,” Keeling said of the grim milestone ahead.

    Levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are commonly represented on a graph known as the Keeling Curve, named for Keeling’s father, Charles David Keeling, who began taking daily measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide in 1958 from atop the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. The curve shows a steep climb, owing to human-caused climate change.

    As the planet inches toward 500 ppm, scientists are sounding the alarm over the potential for catastrophic changes to our environment. “None of these specific numbers are really thresholds in the sense that anything particular happens when we cross them,” Gavin Schmidt, a climatologist who directs NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City, told NBC News MACH in an email. “But as we go through them, we are putting our foot on the accelerator of climate change, and impacts and damage will continue to rise.”

    But it’s hard to say exactly what these changes will bring, or when. Some things, like the loss of vegetation and sea-ice coverage, will grow increasingly visible in the short term. Other things, like the melting of ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland, occur more slowly. “But these impacts are going to persist for a very long time,” said Dana Royer, a professor of earth and environmental sciences at Wesleyan University in Middletown, Connecticut. “Once that happens, we can’t really reverse it.”

    Even if moving to renewable energy and other measures help stanch the steady flow of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, our descendants will likely be saddled with the negative consequences of our artificially elevated levels of CO2.

    “We’re not going to see the full consequences of 415 parts per million of carbon dioxide today,” Jackson said. “It’ll take a thousand years of people — 30 generations of people — to pay the price of what we’re doing today.”

    Scintillant likes this.
  14. border_walker

    border_walker Lead commenter

    Cooling towers don't produce a lot of CO2. So the photograph is a bit misleading, most of what can be seen is water.
    lexus300 likes this.
  15. lexus300

    lexus300 Star commenter

    For Rac as promised:
    Many others not listed and also many others outside this topic available, let me know if you are interested.
  16. racroesus

    racroesus Star commenter

    And where have you shown that this is fraudulent rather than accepted standardisation?
    Also, if there is warming why did the video say that there wasn't at best since most years shoe either no warming or a cooling? Again, where is the peer-reviewed accusation of fraud?
  17. racroesus

    racroesus Star commenter

    Unfounded. That's a big accusation and needs big evidence.
  18. racroesus

    racroesus Star commenter

    Gone fishing.
  19. lexus300

    lexus300 Star commenter

    Like the AGW brigade they were looking at the stasis which seems to have just ended and lasted for 18 years.
    Many of my sources are eminent people in their field one is a Nobel Laureate.
  20. Scintillant

    Scintillant Star commenter

    All of my sources are climatologists

    To even claim stasis is laughable.It is simply a matter of record.

    The data means that the five warmest years in recorded history have been the last five, and that 18 of the 19 warmest years have occurred since 2001. The quickly rising temperatures over the past two decades cap a much longer warming trend documented by researchers and correspond with the scientific consensus that climate change is caused by human activity.

    “We’re no longer talking about a situation where global warming is something in the future,” said Gavin A. Schmidt, director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, the NASA group that conducted the analysis. “It’s here. It’s now.”

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