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"Chances Graphs" KS2 levels predicting KS3, and KS3 predicting KS4 etc

Discussion in 'Mathematics' started by brookes, Apr 12, 2007.

  1. Does anyone know where I can get generic "chances graphs"? I would like the ones for KS2 to KS3 NC levels and KS3 levels to GCSE grades.

    It's hard to describe, What I'm after is a series of graphs, one of which might show what percentage of KS3 5b students went on to get grade E, D, C, B, A etc at GCSE.

    I've been told that the school will have individual ones for each pupil, but I know I've seen more general ones somewhere.
     
  2. Does anyone know where I can get generic "chances graphs"? I would like the ones for KS2 to KS3 NC levels and KS3 levels to GCSE grades.

    It's hard to describe, What I'm after is a series of graphs, one of which might show what percentage of KS3 5b students went on to get grade E, D, C, B, A etc at GCSE.

    I've been told that the school will have individual ones for each pupil, but I know I've seen more general ones somewhere.
     
  3. Tandy

    Tandy New commenter

    The old autumn package ones are here

    http://www.standards.dfes.gov.uk/performance/ap/1386833/?...

    You need to click on the maths tab on each excel file. Conversion is given from average points score - which is a far better way at looking at it. To be honest, trying to say a 5b will get... is a bit of a nonsense.
     
  4. Cheers Tandy, I know what you're saying.

    What got me thinking about it was this AFL course I went on. Briefly, the man (Alan Gervis?) explained that they use similar graphs to do target setting with the pupils. The graphs are meant to be an honest way of showing the pupils what grades they are likely to get, what they could get if they wanted to work for it, and realistically what grades are out of their reach.

    What appeals to me is the idea that the pupil and teacher agree on the target together, with the teacher encouraging the pupil to aim high. This is as opposed to them being set by "Mr Deputy Head in his office" (I quote Mr Gervis!). It gives the teacher and pupil ownership and responsibility I guess.

    Anyway, it's something I want to consider. - what do others think?

    (Btw Tandy, I emailed you with a link to my website - what did you think?).
     
  5. I have some data based on David Jesson's research which looks at the % chance of A* to C based on KS2 results

    If you are interested
     
  6. I wouldn't put you to the bother Lads, as I'm interested in the last test results "predicting" the next test's results.

    I would ask if the research concludes there is a correlation though, as Tandy's comment about it being nonsense has got me wondering if this is all pie in the sky.
     
  7. We use a system where we look at a pupils GCSE Maths and KS3 Maths levels to identify patterns in results.

    After each set of results I look at the transfer from each KS3 level to GCSE level and compare it to the national figures (which QCA will e-mail if you ask). It's a fairly rudementary value added type of measure but did allow me to qucikly, upon appointment to my current post, flag up that the dept. I was joining had records of above national norms progress from KS3 levels 4 and 7,8; but in line with national norms for students who gained a level 5 or 6 at KS3. This data was consistant over several years but had never been really noticed.

    We do similar analysis from KS2 to KS3.

    The strength of this is that it gives a broad brushstroke analysis quite quickly which can then identify areas that need more detailed consideration. The downside is that for small cohorts (for example progress of our students with a level 3 at KS3) the data is vary variable from year to year and is not very useful.

    We also use data to give students (and staff) an indication of the likely grades they may achieve in exams in the following way:

    We use a KS2 - KS3 transition table (again from QCA) which shows that, for example, of the students who gain a level 5 at KS3 Maths,

    1.8% gain a U
    0.4% gain a G
    2.2% gain a F
    21% gain an E
    41.7% gain a D
    28.4% gain a C
    4.4% gain a B
    0.1% gain an A
    0% gain an A*.

    (well they did in 2002 which is the file I happen to have available at hand).

    This certainly helps the parents and pupils see what range of grades is likely and also allows a very nice way into "what factors make the results so spread out?" type of discussion.

    Also it is very useful when havign discussions with parents/students about which tier of entry is most appropriate.




     
  8. Do the QCA's results vary much from year to year MathsHOD? This is cheeky, but would you mind posting up some information for other levels as well as L5?

    I'm trying to use the ones Tandy linked to, but they give a numerical value for the KS results that don't seem to match up in the predicting chances graphs.

    Thinking of the AFL advise we were given, do you share the graphs with pupils/parents when target setting then? I mean in a way of getting pupils to set challenging targets for themselves.
     
  9. brookes

    Yes the research does show a correlation
     
  10. Rustybug went on the same course. I wonder if she's done anything with this idea.
     
  11. Tandy

    Tandy New commenter

    look at the maths tab on here

    http://www.standards.dfes.gov.uk/performance/excel/KS3-GC...

    Level 5 = 33 points, so basically 24% of students at L5 gained C or above. This is pretty much the same figure for the last few years. I think last year was 25%??

    BTW L2 = 15, L3 = 21, L4 = 27, L5 = 33, L6 = 39, L7 = 45, L8 = 51
     
  12. Tandy

    Tandy New commenter

    liked the site brookes - sorry didn't reply to email. My daily barrage of emails is unmanageable!
     
  13. Thanks Tandy.

    I was finding it confusing matching up the APS groupings (and thus graphs) with KS2 NC levels because they have a column (and graph) that doesn't match up with any level.

    Ie.
    KS2 APS = 15 is L2
    16<=KS2 aps <= 22 is L3
    23<= APS <=25 is ?
    26<= APS <= 28 is L4
    29<= APS <=30 is L5

    It made me think either I'd got it wrong, or the that the tables weren't exactly what I was after.





     
  14. I see Tandy's already posted a really useful data file so i won't repeat that but will also confirm that the national data from year to year is very constant.
     
  15. Just come in to this thread. Alan Jervis said that the school would have a chances graph for each student. I haven't done anything with it yet, am going to ask the assistant head who's in charge of target-setting how we teachers can get access to them.
     
  16. strawbs

    strawbs Occasional commenter

    Things that used to be on the autumn package site are now to be found here:
    http://www.teachernet.gov.uk/management/ims/datadiss/nada...

    The "KS3-GCSE Progress Charts 06" are the updated version of the ones in the link Tandy gave in post 2.

    They use average KS3 to GCSE (which is deemed to be the best measure to use); however their top group is KS3 points above 38, which is only about level 6 average. Hardly suitable for your really top achievers.

    Also of use may be the "KS3-GCSE 2006 top 50% transition matrices for maintained mainstream schools" which give % at each GCSEgrade by KS3 Maths sub level (but they are only for schools which overall made average/above average progress ie top 50%)

    And the "KS3-GCSE 2006 English and maths conversions" which give Maths whole level to GCSE percentages. These are based on all maintained schools.

    KS2 to KS3 also on the same site.
     

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