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calculation

Discussion in 'Personal' started by baitranger, May 18, 2020.

  1. baitranger

    baitranger Senior commenter

    According to this Guardian report. only 12% of the deaths from Covid 19 have been in those under 65.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...of-covid-19-than-working-age-brits-data-shows
    Assuming the average pensioner who died received about £150 a week in state pension, what will be the government's immediate saving for 2020 ? I make it:
    30,479 times 150 = 4571952 times 52 =£237741504
    We could reasonably go on to multiply that number by the average number of years each of the dead persons might have been expected to live if they hadn't had Covid 19. Let's guess at 10. 237741504 times 10 =£2377415040.
    Then of course there is inheritance tax, and government paid occupational index linked pensions no longer being paid to some of the dead folk. We'd need to deduct the taxes they would have paid if they'd lived. Some of them would have been getting benefits such as pension credit and disability payments.
    I'm not good at working out in billions-so is this a mere pittance compared with the costs of the lockdown?
     
    lexus300 likes this.
  2. Ivartheboneless

    Ivartheboneless Star commenter

    I did this weeks ago. No conspiracy here.
     
  3. lexus300

    lexus300 Star commenter

    A very conservative calculation.
    Most pensioners who are on state pension only also receive further income bringing them up to the poverty threshold which is currently around £230/week. Also they will have (in the main) many health complaints that the NHS/Social services must deal with. Then there are free bus travel, reductions in property taxes and a few other little benefits. It is definitely a substantial sum, whether it covers the lock down costs or not the politicians will always seize every opportunity to increase taxation.
     
  4. nomad

    nomad Star commenter

    Remember that the numbers are for those who have died with C-19 rather than of C-19.

    It would be better to calculate the number of deaths of over 65 year olds in excess of the annual mean.
     
    Last edited: May 18, 2020
  5. Stiltskin

    Stiltskin Star commenter

    The savings are a drop in the ocean of what is being spent.
     
    Oscillatingass and nomad like this.
  6. lexus300

    lexus300 Star commenter

    The savings are ongoing, they will mount up.
     
  7. Stiltskin

    Stiltskin Star commenter

    It is expected to cost up to £300bn this year alone.The figures at the start suggest £2bn savings over ten years. Even mounting up with the other suggested savings it's not going to be much impact.

    They may as well borrow a few billion more and improve our infrastructure and invest in hospitals and schools.
     
  8. LondonCanary

    LondonCanary Star commenter

    Governments have no money. It's your money that is being saved. Are you pleased?
     
    border_walker likes this.
  9. lexus300

    lexus300 Star commenter

    Then tax the pants off everyone. Good plan.
     
  10. lexus300

    lexus300 Star commenter

    We have gold and a little silver in the BofE. That is our only real money. currency ain't money.
     
  11. baitranger

    baitranger Senior commenter

    Yes,good point.
     
  12. sbkrobson

    sbkrobson Star commenter

    I cannot believe there's a whole thread monetising people dying collectively when many people reading it will be coming to terms with having just cared for one of those people dying who they loved very much.
    It's like measuring somebody who's fallen down and then taking notes standing next to them, rather than giving them a hand up.
     
  13. lexus300

    lexus300 Star commenter

    It is yet another morbid take on the COVID19 drama.
    People are dying all the time, I have lost 2 people one on the tenth the other on the thirteenth, one a close friend another an ex colleague one from cancer the other from COVID19 but he was also suffering with dementia.
    Those of us who remain do mourn but you learn to live with the loss. I do not see anything wrong in generalising about the saving of their benefits/care, it is no different to the Government warnings over who will pay for the lock down nor is it any different to those who keep pointing the finger at our government or indeed to employers making people redundant as a result of all the chaos.
     
  14. sbkrobson

    sbkrobson Star commenter

    If my brother died in the midst of this, no, I would not currently be spending my thoughts on how he has saved the government some money, particularly when it may be the (non) actions of that government which have contributed to his death.
    You listing how many losses you have "sustained" and then briskly moving on to how that is a national saving is not reflective of a mourning process that many will recognise.
    Allow me an illustrative parallel
    Grenfell towers burned down. Lots of people died, which is quite sad, but luckily many of the occupants were benefits recipients, so that's a huge saving to the public purse!
    I made that stark on purpose.

    The nature of history is that, yes, we can count losses and gains. they are valid and valuable calculations.
    But this is not history,
    This is current. And people are suffering losses. Not counting gains. They might be demonstrable, but it's too soon.

    And that is what jarred with me in this thread content.
    That's all I wanted to say really.
     
    nomad likes this.
  15. lexus300

    lexus300 Star commenter

    Too much emotion not enough common sense with COVID19, I do not make light of the tragedy of losing someone close nor do I attach that loss to this discussion topic. As I pointed out and you did not mention, the government have been thrusting costs at us from the beginning, employers likewise and also those on benefits due to the lockdown.
    That was all I wanted to say.
     
  16. Ivartheboneless

    Ivartheboneless Star commenter

    So it won't stop them removing the "triple lock" on pensions which are one of the lowest in Europe.
     
  17. lexus300

    lexus300 Star commenter

    We can all expect some belt tightening via increased taxation and austerity cuts as well.
     
  18. magic surf bus

    magic surf bus Star commenter

    The Guardian being quoted as evidence on TES - where's @Luvsskiing when you need them? Is there like a Batphone we can use?
     
  19. Ivartheboneless

    Ivartheboneless Star commenter

  20. lexus300

    lexus300 Star commenter

    There I was thinking we are all in this together:eek: how wrong can I be?
    The money came from nowhere or was it the magic money tree? Anyway, wherever it came from they will make sure their ‘pound of flesh’ is taken, you can bet my pensions on it:confused: BUT they must remember the next election and pensioners do vote;)
     

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