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Brexit will cost each household £3,700

Discussion in 'Personal' started by FrankWolley, Mar 21, 2016.

  1. FrankWolley

    FrankWolley Star commenter

    So only vote to leave if you have more spare cash than you need.


    Leaving the European Union could blow a £100bn hole in the UK economy and cost up to 950,000 jobs, the CBI has warned, in what is easily the most pessimistic economic forecast yet of the implications of Brexit.

    The forecast, compiled for the CBI by the accountancy firm PwC, will be outlined by the business lobby group’s director general, Carolyn Fairbairn, at a speech at the London Business School.

    The forecast shows that UK GDP could be 5.5 per cent smaller (around £100bn in today’s money) by 2020, in a scenario in which a favourable free-trade deal between the UK and EU is not agreed relatively swiftly. That’s smaller relative to a scenario in which Britain votes “yes” and the economy grows at a steady 2.3 per cent a year. That shortfall in national income would equate to an average loss of around £3,700 for every household.
  2. Cracked_up

    Cracked_up New commenter

    More scare stories Frank. Have you run out of any positives the EU might have to offer?
  3. BelleDuJour

    BelleDuJour Star commenter

    It's all spin.
    If we leave we can make our own laws and control our own borders. And remove VAT from sanitary products overnight without asking 20 odd EU member countries for permission to do so. And eat wonky cucumbers. Such is the nonsense of unelected bureaucrats in Brussels.
    And save us around £10.8 billion in contributions.
    The EU needs us more than we need them.
  4. FrankWolley

    FrankWolley Star commenter

    It's an independent study by experts.

    Just doesn't fit in with the Brexit bluster, spin and outright lies.
    aspensquiver_2 likes this.
  5. jacob

    jacob Lead commenter

    We all know what "expert" means. This is in the same vein as those stupid initiatives that are brought in because there has been "research".

    I am not really in favour of either at the moment, and things like GDP are pretty much made up by whichever bunch of "experts" are playing with numbers. It is obvious that Gideon has no understanding of maths, as he has plainly shown for six years. Why would it cost ME £3700 personally? The big winners or losers will be corporations, and they never really "lose" anyway do they? There is always some bit of legislation they can get round or some loophole in a new law that they can fiddle.
  6. Flere-Imsaho

    Flere-Imsaho Star commenter

    I would also like to see more positive reasons for staying. If people feel strongly about leaving will this make a difference?
    Next some bright spark will be telling us how many pints and fish suppers we can buy if we vote to stay.
  7. jacob

    jacob Lead commenter

    Mmmmm. Fish supper! Drool!!!
  8. dumpty

    dumpty Star commenter

    When did the rest of you get your EU membership bonus? I seem to have missed out on it since the seventies, not just recently.....
    lexus300 and wanet like this.
  9. artboyusa

    artboyusa Star commenter

  10. sabrinakat

    sabrinakat Star commenter

    You got ME! That's your EU bonus :D

    ps. the Irish cat has more rights than the non-EU spouse of a UK citizen (MrSK is a dual Irish and UK citizen, so we went the EU route as we had legally lived in Ireland for about 15 years)
  11. FrankWolley

    FrankWolley Star commenter

    You're living it - if we hadn't joined the EU the consensus of economic opinion is that GB would be less well off today.
  12. FrankWolley

    FrankWolley Star commenter

    More trustworthy that the combined 'wisdom' of Gove, Galloway, Johnson et al...
  13. Cracked_up

    Cracked_up New commenter

    It's a bit like deciding who you'd trust to babysit your kids. Do you choose the baby snatcher from across the road or the serial killer living next door? I'm sure that we can turn to you for advice on which one.;)
  14. Scintillant

    Scintillant Star commenter

    Although not the complete picture, recent studies show a net benefit to us in remaining in the EU.

    The studies that don't, appear to me to be over 10-years-old


    The estimates range from anywhere between -4.5% to +20% of annual GDP, largely reflecting the different assumptions and methodologies used. The papers that tend to find a negative impact of EU membership tend to focus on the ‘static’ costs - associated with regulation, immigration or the UK’s contribution to the EU Budget in a given year - summing them up to produce an overall cost. However, these papers fail to take account of the potential ‘dynamic’ effects associated with EU membership. Moreover, the counterfactual scenarios considered in these studies only cover a sub-set of possibilities for the UK’s relationship with the EU and the rest of the world as a non-member. As noted by Boltho and Eichengreen (2008), “imagining a counterfactual is no easy task”. A novel approach employed recently is based on constructing ‘synthetic counterfactuals’ for various stages of EU integration (Campos, Coricelli and Moretti (2014)). This study uses other small open economies outside the EU as a proxy for how countries would have evolved outside the EU. In the case of the UK, it is assumed that EU membership may have boosted GDP in the UK by 20%. Other recent studies have explicitly assessed the costs, or benefits, of leaving the EU. These studies, which take different approaches, estimate that, if the UK were to leave the EU, annual GDP could be anywhere from 9.5% lower to 1.6% higher (or equivalently, implicitly estimate that the net benefit of EU membership is between -1.6% to + 9.5% of GDP).

    Burndenpark likes this.
  15. lexus300

    lexus300 Star commenter

    Who paid them?
  16. wanet

    wanet Star commenter

    I would have more respect for someone who said that there are so many variable that it is impossible to be precise, but these are the 2 extreemes from what we think and an average result is ......................... .
    foxtail3 and delnon like this.
  17. FrankWolley

    FrankWolley Star commenter

    They - like all of us - will benefit providing we ignore the lies coming from Gove et al.
  18. lexus300

    lexus300 Star commenter

    This says all that needs to be said:
    “We know that the CBI is in part funded by Europe. It is therefore under an obligation either to return that money or to support the objectives of the European Union.”
    Cracked_up likes this.
  19. lexus300

    lexus300 Star commenter

    For me Brexit is a matter of freedom/independence even IF (and a big if) it costs us more initially. All these experts chucking in their vested interests reminds me of a crude definition of an expert.
    "X is an unknown quantity and spurt is a drip under pressure". :) I will vote for out.
    BelleDuJour likes this.
  20. Alf58

    Alf58 Established commenter

    The CBI are pro EU they are not independent. If the study had shown leaving the EU would be of benefit it would have been quietly shelved. More Pro EU spin.

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