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Brexit starts

Discussion in 'Personal' started by nomad, Oct 1, 2016.

  1. FrankWolley

    FrankWolley Star commenter

    I fear the latter....:(
  2. FrankWolley

    FrankWolley Star commenter

    Not scaremongering...Just basic facts:

    Brexit: UK must start preparing for Dover no deal chaos (and build a 1,000-strong lorry park)
    Customs officials admit they have no idea what reality they must start preparing for in April 2019


    If the Government is serious about maintaining its pretence of leaving the EU with no trade deal, it will have to pave paradise and put up a parking lot.

    Just off the M20 at Folkestone, 10 miles out from the port of Dover, there is a smallish lorry park with 82 spaces. Almost unseen behind the KFC and the WHSmith, Turkish truckers wash their underwear in coin-operated laundry machines.

    It’s privately run, and serves a niche market. It provides customs clearance for lorries driven to the UK from outside the EU. Such clearance is not completely straightforward, and if the UK leaves the EU with no deal, it is estimated a thousand or more such parking spaces will be required.

    Dover is the world’s busiest port for freight lorries, but for understandable reasons, less than 1 per cent of its arrivals have driven all the way across the European Union to get here. The vast majority of this 1 per cent have come from Turkey or Switzerland. The customs requirements made of them are not straightforward, and if hard Brexit occurs, these are requirements that are likely to require replication for the other 99 per cent. The risks are huge.

    It is a bewildering proposition. Brexiteers both in and out of government like to repeat the claim that processing these lorries takes “20 seconds”, but any of the drivers who stop here for lengthy periods will tell you a different story.

    "First you are driving in, then parking, then taking a form to be signed. It's not 20 seconds, it is long time," says Ahmet, a 44-year-old Turkish driver who regularly calls in here on long drives between Turkey and the UK.

    Twenty seconds is the time it takes the computer to check the documents, which are actually approved by a customs centre in Manchester. They earmark the taxes that must be paid on the goods and send it on its way. It does not include the time spent parking up and bringing the documents to the desk.

    Most significantly, it does not include the 35 minutes lorries are routinely made to wait to satisfy EU rules on the transit of goods.

    When the Turkish delight and Swiss chocolates arrive in the UK, they are subject to certain duties. But France, Germany and everywhere in between need to know that none have fallen off the back of the lorry en route, and avoided duties there.

    Once out of the EU, it has been claimed, the UK will be free to ignore these EU directives, but it is not that simple. If the UK retreats on to WTO rules, taxes will have to be collected on absolutely everything that arrives, from every country. Currently the facilities simply do not exist to do this.

    In nearby Stanford, there has been talk of building a huge lorry park to end “Operation Stack”. That is the procedure that turns the M20 in to a temporary lorry park when relatively rare problems at Dover cause miles and miles of queues. In theory, that lorry park could also be used for customs checks, but approval for its construction was granted two years ago, and work has not begun. It involves covering wide acres of green pasture in wide acres of tarmac. Unsurprisingly, local residents are furious. A local campaign against it is making glacial progress through the court system, with residents ruling out an out-of-court agreement. The time for further delays is rapidly running out.

    The consequences of delays at Dover are fatal. Recent estimates suggest even two minutes per lorry would create 17-mile tailbacks. Dover’s MP Charlie Elphicke, who has been undertaking exhaustive research into finding a solution to the problem, says significant delays would leave the “Northern Powerhouse powered down, the Midlands Engine switched of..” Parts for virtually all cars made in the UK come through Dover. Delays have knock-on effects for productions lines everywhere, and those knock-on effects would come fast.

    Factories hold inventory for a matter of hours, knowing the next load is on the way up the motorway from Dover. Having to be resilient to potential delay involves holding vast amounts of extra stock. Privately, government advisers says it makes the UK a “risky place to do business”. If no clarity emerges on the situation by "very early next year", manufacturers will have to strongly consider moving operations to within the borders of the European Union.

    Effectively, the country must start to make extensive preparations for an outcome it doesn't want and that may never happen. Customs officials admit in private that hiring processes would need to "start now", without any real idea of the needs that will ultimately be required.

    The customs checks are carried out by small, private companies, who only call in an HMRC inspector as a matter or last resort. Technological changes, and massive simplifications that came into effect in 1993, mean very few such companies remain. Of those that do, there is little evidence that they even want the vast amounts of business that could come their way. Margins are already extremely tight. If they are overwhelmed, prices will be driven down, requiring either the Government itself, or a huge, DHL-type operator to step in.

    The Institute for Government estimate that up to 5,000 more staff will be needed. And if these staff are to be trained and ready for work on 1 April 2019, the recruitment process will need to begin early in the new year at the latest. And they would have to recruit for jobs that, in the event of a deal or even a transitional arrangement, may never need to be filled. Customs officials describe Brexit as “impossible to plan for”.

    “What we should be doing now is investing in world-class systems,” Mr Elphicke said. “Systems that you can get in place that do it on fast turnaround.”

    Currently, such systems do not exist. Nor does the money to pay for them, the staff to operate them, nor the facilities in which to install them. Don’t it always seem to go, that you don’t know what you’ve got til it’s gone.

    It's already too late to build a 1,000 space lorry park for March 2019, of course. Planning alone will take longer.
    sabrinakat likes this.
  3. sabrinakat

    sabrinakat Star commenter

    Interesting reading, @FrankWolley. As someone living in Kent, I have seen the effects of any slow down and it's not pretty :(
  4. FrankWolley

    FrankWolley Star commenter

    Me too....Back in 2015 when Operation Stack was at its peak we had great difficulties getting home on one occasion!:eek:
  5. elledriver

    elledriver Lead commenter

    Do you know what this is referring to?
  6. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    Of course they don't, because there will be no decision on a trade deal until 2018 at the earliest. However, transitional arrangements are likely to mean that nothing will change in April 2019/

    It has no such pretence, so please stop spreading fake news. The government's aim, like that of the EU, is a comprehesnive free trade deal.
  7. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    I think rather that most people don't care about biased rubbish printed in papers like the Guardian and Independent. Sensible people note what Michel Barnier said when he visited the Republic of Ireland earlier this year:

    There is "always an answer" to the issue of what form the Irish border will take after Brexit, says the EU's chief negotiator. Michel Barnier was speaking on a two-day visit to the Republic of Ireland ahead of the start of the Brexit talks.


    Of course, matters on the border cannot be negotiated further until trade talks establish our future trading relationship with the EU, so don't expect any news soon.
  8. FrankWolley

    FrankWolley Star commenter

    Misquoting me again - I did not write that. Can't trust anything you write. FG - the Donald Trump of TES gets it wrong again.
  9. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    Oh, I took it for granted, Mr Cut-and-paste, that everyone knows you don't have opinions of your own - you just regurgiate what you are fed. Happy to confirm that you have done it again.
    lexus300 likes this.
  10. Burndenpark

    Burndenpark Star commenter

    Here we go again.

    Assuming you have understood that a prediction, even one that failed to be proved accurate, is not the same as a lie, can you give some examples from Remain?

    Fair point- and the bus is different how?
  11. Scintillant

    Scintillant Star commenter

    Andrew Marr Show:

    Dyson - “so many opportunities for UK manufacturing in the UK: a renaissance!”

    Marr - “will you build your new electric car here then?”

    Dyson - “eh, no”

    These people are so funny. Until you remember how serious it all is.
    Nanook_rubs_it likes this.
  12. dumpty

    dumpty Star commenter

    I think the bus message is now one of the last outlets of anger for a decreasing group of reversers. If they can indeed get it to be read as a promise (and the Independent now runs headlines using that word) then they feel they have some kind of moral high ground.

    But what saddens me is the necessity of this. It has been done to death and even if it did say 'promise, in fact with bells on' it is all over now. Both sides had their fight and both sides performed miserably.

    What I find ironic is both campaigns were aimed at the lowest common denominator and now most after the event debates are, too.

    I am sure some people did read it as a promise. I most certainly did not and I know many who did not.

    I am sure some people believed the threats (promises??? :p) of overnight recessions and thousands more in income tax, too. I most certainly did not and I know many who did not.

    I am sure some people read 'I will deal with it' (historic student debt) as a promise to deal with historic student debt. I most certainly did and I know many who did and do - but hey, Labour want to work it that we who think that clearly got it wrong.

    Sound familiar?

    It's politics. Cynical and aimed at the lowest. And ALL parties do it.

    We should not however join in with that and presume everyone obviously read the bus message as a clear promise and/or only voted leave because of it.

    They did not. You know it, I know it.

    Let's deal with it.....
    wanet and florian gassmann like this.
  13. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    But what is the point? It changes nothing and it could be that a future government might decide to spend money that would have gone to the EU on the NHS instead. It is pointless speculating at this stage as the time when it may be possible is still many years away.

    One thing I would say is that the only people I've ever heard claim it was a promise are remainers who, when I express sympathy and say how sorry I am that they were misled, immediately say THEY never thought it was a promise - it was only the little people, the underlings, the ones they love to look down, who thought it was a promise.
  14. lexus300

    lexus300 Star commenter

    Already been over this, best effort ? Inadequate.
  15. Burndenpark

    Burndenpark Star commenter

    I think that's a generous assessment- TBH I don't think you're really trying.

    It really is not complicated- if you make a prediction for some point in the future the prediction can be proved right or wrong, and that can't be known until the date arrives- it is not a lie though.
    Many of the things you have been calling lies are predictions that haven't even reached their due dates, which means you have no way of knowing yet if they were accurate or not.
  16. Didactylos4

    Didactylos4 Star commenter

  17. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    Yep. More frequently, though, I hear people express the opinion that it would be good for the NHS to have more money, should it become available.
  18. racroesus

    racroesus Star commenter

    And fewer care about Northern Ireland. RoI refuses a hard border and GB says you can have NI. We would see all the democrats come out then.
  19. racroesus

    racroesus Star commenter

    A hard border. There has to be one at British ports such as the Tunnel. If there is a border poll in favour of a united Ireland then the hard border moves to Stranraer from Newry.
    There will be no violence because the people don't want it and dissidents would only be bombing Customs posts rather than houses and cars. Gerry won't call for arms since there have to be customs checks on exports to non-EU countries. There won't even be surveillance towers since there is no IRA insurgency.
  20. lexus300

    lexus300 Star commenter

    Sometimes you make me smile:) not very often mind:p
    Burndenpark likes this.

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