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Brexit - it is time..

Discussion in 'Personal' started by install, Oct 12, 2019 at 2:04 PM.

  1. install

    install Star commenter

    The time has come - will we see a vote delivered at long last?
     
  2. burajda

    burajda Star commenter

    Lets hope so. Who knows whats going on, but its all gone very quiet on all sides. I think the EU may have shifted on 'future arrangements' and the UK on customs. Coveney and Foster have probably done the donkey work. Be prepared for a soft Brexit, Johnson can shaft the ERG like he did the Tory anti no dealers if the DUP are on side and he's got a handful of Brexit fatigued Labour Leavers. It still wont be easy getting it through the HoC.
     
  3. FrankWolley

    FrankWolley Star commenter

    There have been three votes already... Remember.
     
  4. towncryer

    towncryer Senior commenter

    I'm not convinced another vote will change anything,
     
  5. lanokia

    lanokia Star commenter

    I said something similar to MrsLan this morning... eye of the storm?
     
  6. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    Deep in the tunnel, so they say.

    Nigel Evans said yesterday that the ERG will back the new deal if the DUP are in favour of it.
     
  7. install

    install Star commenter

    I sense the time is right now to move forward. Brexit will happen but not quite the way anyone saw it. Something to please Ireland, the DUP and the majority of mps.
     
  8. LondonCanary

    LondonCanary Lead commenter

    So true
    No sunny uplands.
    No easiest trade deal ever.
    No Britain as a global player.
    No £350 million a week of extra money.
    No cake and eat it.
    No they need us more than we need them.
    No we hold all the cards.

    There's nothing left except except "Get Brexit Done".
     
  9. burajda

    burajda Star commenter

    Is the ERG actually so cohesive ? their previous voting record suggests not. Can Evans really speak for all of them?
     
    chelsea2 likes this.
  10. FrankWolley

    FrankWolley Star commenter

  11. burajda

    burajda Star commenter

    Yes, because different Leavers see Brexit differently. Perhaps Leavers realise that not all Leavers see Brexit the same way and some have to compromise on their purist position. Those purist positions play into the hands of the No compromise element of Remainers. Enough Remainers who respect democracy but reject the absolutists clean cut Brexit would settle for a soft brexit deal.
     
    peter12171, install and alex_teccy like this.
  12. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    Given that negotiations on an FTA have not even begun yet, the chart is a triumph of unfounded speculation.
     
    peter12171 and border_walker like this.
  13. burajda

    burajda Star commenter

    We havent even started the real negotiations yet. If a Labour majority is elected, unlikely of course, then a customs union may be back on the table.
     
  14. burajda

    burajda Star commenter

    You got there before me!
     
  15. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    It's now almost non-existant so far as opposition to a deal is concerned. Most of its members voted for May's deal at the third attempt. There are only about 20 hardliners left. To what extent Nigel Evans can speak on behalf of them, I don't know, but he is often referred to as a "key member" of the ERG.
     
  16. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    I doubt that it will be much different to what is described as "Theresa May's deal" (actually the EU's deal). It is only the Irish backstop that is greatly changed.

    If you mean "not quite the way anyone saw it" in the broader sense, unless there is no deal we are at least two years away from Brexit in the sense of no longer being in the EU, so it is far too early to say.

    When Brexit was compared with World War II on HIGNFY last night, it was pointed out that WWII only lasted for six years. :(
     
    alex_teccy likes this.
  17. FrankWolley

    FrankWolley Star commenter


    Yeah, Economics editor of the FT or posters here...I think I'll accept the more knowledgeable Mr Giles...

    Remember the EU were going to give a deal 'in 15 minutes', it was going to be 'the easiest deal' in history etc etc. ;)
     
  18. install

    install Star commenter

    I don't see another referendum happening. But I do see a Brexit in the broader sense on the 'horizon'. The shift of the DUP and seemingly Ireland has yet to impact in real terms. But - it is potentially a shift and something that was not there before.

    Either way - it is clearly time for 'Brexit', however that is dressed up.
     
  19. florian gassmann

    florian gassmann Star commenter

    Oh right. He thinks Free Trade Negotiations with the EU have started, does he? :p:D:p
    Hint: Trying to base a model on "average free trade agreements" is futile. Every FTA is different and tailored to the particular circumstances of the countries concerned.
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2019 at 4:49 PM
    border_walker likes this.
  20. Duke of York

    Duke of York Star commenter

    The time will only come to leave the EU when it's seen as safe to do so. There's no need to be impatient about it.

    In my youth, China couldn't feed it's people, but over a long period of time, with a plan it stuck to, it has been able to transform its economy. We lack the ability to form any long-term plans whatsoever.
     

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