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Discussion in 'Personal' started by install, Oct 12, 2019.
The time has come - will we see a vote delivered at long last?
Lets hope so. Who knows whats going on, but its all gone very quiet on all sides. I think the EU may have shifted on 'future arrangements' and the UK on customs. Coveney and Foster have probably done the donkey work. Be prepared for a soft Brexit, Johnson can shaft the ERG like he did the Tory anti no dealers if the DUP are on side and he's got a handful of Brexit fatigued Labour Leavers. It still wont be easy getting it through the HoC.
There have been three votes already... Remember.
I'm not convinced another vote will change anything,
I said something similar to MrsLan this morning... eye of the storm?
Deep in the tunnel, so they say.
Nigel Evans said yesterday that the ERG will back the new deal if the DUP are in favour of it.
I sense the time is right now to move forward. Brexit will happen but not quite the way anyone saw it. Something to please Ireland, the DUP and the majority of mps.
No sunny uplands.
No easiest trade deal ever.
No Britain as a global player.
No £350 million a week of extra money.
No cake and eat it.
No they need us more than we need them.
No we hold all the cards.
There's nothing left except except "Get Brexit Done".
Is the ERG actually so cohesive ? their previous voting record suggests not. Can Evans really speak for all of them?
Johnson's deal not good for the UK:
All the analysis comes courtesy of the UK govt's long term analysis from last November - you know, the one that Brexiter's approved of (sort of) https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/760484/28_November_EU_Exit_-_Long-term_economic_analysis__1_.pdf…
Yes, because different Leavers see Brexit differently. Perhaps Leavers realise that not all Leavers see Brexit the same way and some have to compromise on their purist position. Those purist positions play into the hands of the No compromise element of Remainers. Enough Remainers who respect democracy but reject the absolutists clean cut Brexit would settle for a soft brexit deal.
Given that negotiations on an FTA have not even begun yet, the chart is a triumph of unfounded speculation.
We havent even started the real negotiations yet. If a Labour majority is elected, unlikely of course, then a customs union may be back on the table.
You got there before me!
It's now almost non-existant so far as opposition to a deal is concerned. Most of its members voted for May's deal at the third attempt. There are only about 20 hardliners left. To what extent Nigel Evans can speak on behalf of them, I don't know, but he is often referred to as a "key member" of the ERG.
I doubt that it will be much different to what is described as "Theresa May's deal" (actually the EU's deal). It is only the Irish backstop that is greatly changed.
If you mean "not quite the way anyone saw it" in the broader sense, unless there is no deal we are at least two years away from Brexit in the sense of no longer being in the EU, so it is far too early to say.
When Brexit was compared with World War II on HIGNFY last night, it was pointed out that WWII only lasted for six years.
Yeah, Economics editor of the FT or posters here...I think I'll accept the more knowledgeable Mr Giles...
Remember the EU were going to give a deal 'in 15 minutes', it was going to be 'the easiest deal' in history etc etc.
I don't see another referendum happening. But I do see a Brexit in the broader sense on the 'horizon'. The shift of the DUP and seemingly Ireland has yet to impact in real terms. But - it is potentially a shift and something that was not there before.
Either way - it is clearly time for 'Brexit', however that is dressed up.
Oh right. He thinks Free Trade Negotiations with the EU have started, does he?
Hint: Trying to base a model on "average free trade agreements" is futile. Every FTA is different and tailored to the particular circumstances of the countries concerned.
The time will only come to leave the EU when it's seen as safe to do so. There's no need to be impatient about it.
In my youth, China couldn't feed it's people, but over a long period of time, with a plan it stuck to, it has been able to transform its economy. We lack the ability to form any long-term plans whatsoever.