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Discussion in 'Personal' started by WB, Jun 5, 2020.
Just an observation.
The number 40,000 will be announced in about an hour.
Ineffective flu vaccine added to 50,000 extra deaths last winter, ONS says
All such statistics are, of course, very sobering, but we somehow seem to ignore how serious flu can be - especially when the vaccine proves ineffective.
I remember the news and shock when we hit 10 000.
And remember to add 25,000 in your head for the real figure.
Daily Mail is back to running these figures as its massive headline across the front page:
All those families...….
As Johnson said on Wednesday - they are very proud of all that that have achieved.
If those R rates are current, we have trouble ahead.
The spike is on its way, maybe sooner than predicted.
We have always been told we were two weeks behind Italy, France etc. on 22nd May France had 74 deaths and was in double figures all that week. Italy was 130, Germany 43, Spain reported 688 but a lot of those were backdated deaths - the weekly figures were around 50 a day.
I know that we have to bear in mind differences in reporting, but the trend was that a fortnight ago these countries were reporting fewer deaths than we are
Also the R rate in the South West seems to be on the rise - from a very low point in terms of cases we could now be looking at a regional issue.
Predictably Hancock is having to announce the news.
He sounds very nervous.
Unsurprising. He's going to have to put a positive spin on the situation.
Dramatic R rate increase from 0.4 to 0.97 in London. Southwest and Northwest AT LEAST 1.
Given the lag, the results of the easing of the lockdown (which wasn’t actually a lockdown in the first place) and schools re-opening, one only wonders how the government are going to spin this, given their endless daily briefing warnings about consequences if the R rate rises above 1.
My prediction...no more daily briefings after the next day or so.
Only the USA has more deaths - how did this happen ?.
R=0.4 was the low value for London according to one type of calculation, while 0.97 is the high value from a different measure which put the London R between 0.7 and 0.9. So it hasn't actually gone from 0.4 to 0.97. One measure is from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, while the other is from Imperial College, if I remember correctly.
Matt Hancock has just said that SAGE believes R to be below 1 in all regions, but the higher figures (particularly for the South West and North West) suggest that local lockdown measures may need to be applied.